Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

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beanoir

Original Poster:

1,327 posts

194 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Ok, so I have a gut feel that things won't be quite as straight cut as perhaps we may all think. I may be completely wrong, and likely so but thought it could be an interesting debate all the same.

The UK has the right under Article 50 (of the Lisbon Treaty) to initiate it's departure from the EU. Once that has been invoked, my understanding is it's kind of a point of no return. A period of negotiation will be at least 2 years.

David Cameron has stated he won't invoke the UK's rights under Article 50, so it won't happen until at least October. Cameron has resigned and so replacements are jostling for position for PM job, likely candidate being Boris.

Boris in his speech earlier, made a few hints at "no rush" to invoke Article 50 either, and made lots of hints at positive relationship with Europe and EU etc etc.

A referendum is not a legally binding directive, it's just a public opinion, I say 'just' but what I mean is that the Govt. has no legal obligation to follow that opinion. So they could choose to ignore the referendum, although this would normally be considered political suicide and wouldn't happen...under normal circumstances.

Now, if you look at the demographics of the voting population in this referendum, I suspect that it could be construed not to be particularly suicidal for Boris to decide not to follow the opinion of the vote to leave, and in fact may maintain what he considers to be the majority of Conservative supporters and also win more from the remain camp - winning him and the Tories a healthy majority of the voting population.

I wouldn't bet my house on this, but I reckon we could see some political worming out of the idea of leaving the EU and doing a deal with Brussels instead - I don't think Boris actually intended leaving the EU at all.

Madness?




Edited by beanoir on Friday 24th June 15:36


Edited by beanoir on Friday 24th June 15:37

OllyMo

596 posts

211 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
I wouldn't be surprised. I think that was Boris' plan all along. Leave vote, become leader, do some negotiating and keep us in.

Other option is to call a GE and campaign on the mandate of keeping us in the EU, and arguing that a mandate from winning a GE would supersede the referendum result. That could happen from any side, Red or Blue.

Puggit

48,355 posts

247 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
I'm leaning to your thinking. CMD always said he'd invoke article 50 very quickly. He's giving the country 3 months to reflect. Then we need a new PM, and there's no guarantee they will be a eurosceptic. I can see a LOT of political wrangling coming. After that, we need parliament to vote on it. I would support parliament declining to pass the resolution due to the small winning margin.

What will the EU do IF we invoke article 50? If they play hardball, in an attempt to prevent contagion, then we go. That makes no sense to me.

If they offer concessions, which they don't want to, for fear of contagion, then we can vote again.

Even as an anti-EU voter, I don't consider the result worthy of such a radical change. 60% should have been the threshold to upset the status quo.

curlie467

7,650 posts

200 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
I was chatting to someone about this, almost like a forced reform maybe?

DMN

2,983 posts

138 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Seems some brexiters are having second thoughts now the damage has been done (video near the top):

https://twitter.com/SimonNRicketts

ReallyReallyGood

1,620 posts

129 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
I think this would be the best outcome for everyone too, as a Leave voter.

r11co

6,244 posts

229 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
I'm with this.

Read Christopher Booker's articles on the EU going back to beforeany planned referendum. He always said that any re-negotiation was a waste of time and could be veto'd until the threat of an Article 50 intention was raised.

This referendum result gives the negotiator the clout Cameron lacked.

DMN

2,983 posts

138 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
DMN said:
Seems some brexiters are having second thoughts now the damage has been done (video near the top):

https://twitter.com/SimonNRicketts
Another regretfull brexiter:
http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/man-who-voted-for-le...

anonymous-user

53 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
No chance! They will not risk riding rough shod over the electorate's decision.

Puggit

48,355 posts

247 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
digimeistter said:
No chance! They will not risk riding rough shod over the electorate's decision.
Riding rough shod would be overturning a comprehensive win. Which this was not.

eldar

21,614 posts

195 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
ReallyReallyGood said:
I think this would be the best outcome for everyone too, as a Leave voter.
We've left. There won't be a second chance, why should there be.

towser44

3,472 posts

114 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Puggit said:
digimeistter said:
No chance! They will not risk riding rough shod over the electorate's decision.
Riding rough shod would be overturning a comprehensive win. Which this was not.
Vince Cable's just been on Sky and trotted this out. Suggested we may be able to reform rather than sign divorce papers

Puggit

48,355 posts

247 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
eldar said:
ReallyReallyGood said:
I think this would be the best outcome for everyone too, as a Leave voter.
We've left. There won't be a second chance, why should there be.
No we haven't.

CMD has declined to trigger the process. Parliament has no appetite to act. We have 3 months at least of wrangling.

ben5575

6,221 posts

220 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Interesting listening to one of the 'experts' on R4 this afternoon (I think a member of the WTO who advises France on such matters). Their take was that there was absolutely no reason for anybody (e.g. the EU) go easy on the UK in terms of negotiations. In fact quite the opposite. Their logic being that if the terms of any trade deal were so onerous and unappealing, then there would be no political appetite from the electorate to accept such conditions, thus forcing a second referendum.

Not my view, but an interesting take nonetheless. As others have said interesting times...


beanoir

Original Poster:

1,327 posts

194 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
digimeistter said:
No chance! They will not risk riding rough shod over the electorate's decision.
I'm not so sure, normally I'd be right with you on that, but it's only 51.9% of the electorate and I suspect there is a further fair percentage of those that voted Leave who, in the cold light of day are wondering if that was such a great idea. So if those not quite sure, added to the 48.1% who voted Remain provide a majority, were to be presented with a well negotiated deal that had been negotiated with the EU by a man with the power vested in him to invoke Article 50 in his back pocket, I can start to see how it might be work.


foxsasha

1,416 posts

134 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
DMN said:
Seems some brexiters are having second thoughts now the damage has been done (video near the top):

https://twitter.com/SimonNRicketts
I'm sorry but there is absolutely no question that too large a percentage of the population should not be given a vote. They're just too stupid to use it properly. Vote in, vote out, make your decision but do it with your eyes wide open! This was borne out by the level of the televised debates, just inane repeated banal tosh of no depth which shows exactly the mind set of the population the debates were aimed at!

Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
DMN said:
DMN said:
Seems some brexiters are having second thoughts now the damage has been done (video near the top):

https://twitter.com/SimonNRicketts
Another regretfull brexiter:
http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/man-who-voted-for-le...
What a spacker.

Anyway, the uncertainty, that's a done deal, you can't wind the clock back on that one. Classic case of buyers remorse; plenty here on PH know about that through the car trade. hehe

rscott

14,690 posts

190 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Puggit said:
I'm leaning to your thinking. CMD always said he'd invoke article 50 very quickly. He's giving the country 3 months to reflect. Then we need a new PM, and there's no guarantee they will be a eurosceptic. I can see a LOT of political wrangling coming. After that, we need parliament to vote on it. I would support parliament declining to pass the resolution due to the small winning margin.

What will the EU do IF we invoke article 50? If they play hardball, in an attempt to prevent contagion, then we go. That makes no sense to me.

If they offer concessions, which they don't want to, for fear of contagion, then we can vote again.

Even as an anti-EU voter, I don't consider the result worthy of such a radical change. 60% should have been the threshold to upset the status quo.
Serious question - what concessions would you like to see the EU offer?

Couple of ideas:-
1. Swiss style controls on EU immigration. That's a free movement of people but requiring residence permits for long term stays. These would be dependent on proof of income/employment (http://www.expatica.com/ch/visas-and-permits/Guide-for-EU-EFTA-citizens-and-family-moving-to-Switzerland_443220.html ). Presumably a compromise might involve EU countries implementing the same for UK citizens?
2. Guaranteed permanent opt-out of the Euro, EU Army .
3. Opt outs of some EU regulations in return for no longer being eligible for related EU grants/loans.
4. Reduction in the 'membership fee'.

kiethton

13,883 posts

179 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
DMN said:
DMN said:
Seems some brexiters are having second thoughts now the damage has been done (video near the top):

https://twitter.com/SimonNRicketts
Another regretfull brexiter:
http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/man-who-voted-for-le...
What a spacker.

Anyway, the uncertainty, that's a done deal, you can't wind the clock back on that one. Classic case of buyers remorse; plenty here on PH know about that through the car trade. hehe
But buyers remorse at the expense of the young :/


Countdown

39,690 posts

195 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Given what feels like years of moaning about "leaving the EUSSR" by UKIP types I'd be very f'kin annoyed if we didn't leave!!
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