2017 F1 Regulations - Who will get it right?

2017 F1 Regulations - Who will get it right?

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Dr Z

Original Poster:

3,396 posts

170 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
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Saw this at AMuS which had some interesting details:

http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/formel-1/geheim...

Apparently, Michael Schmidt has had a look at the list FIA sent out to teams in order to convince them to run at the Bahrain tyre test to help Pirelli with the tyre design. These are anonymised downforce, power and straight line speeds teams are expecting for their own cars next year from their simulations, compared to the numbers from the end of 2015.

A certain “Team 3” has apparently found 15% downforce improvement over what their 2015 car was producing at the year end. Two others, 30% improvements and another team 28% improvement...sounds promising. A further two teams have found only 5% over their 2015 challengers.

In terms of power, 3 teams each are expecting an increase of 10%, 15% and 17% over their 2015 outputs. One team, a 22% increase in output...Schmidt is speculating that this is McLaren. Love the translation: The Japanese are next year in the music. hehe

It could also be Manor...as they ran 2014 Ferrari engines for their 2015 car.

The top speed of the cars are set to be significantly reduced next year due to increased drag from the wider tyres and generally the car being wider (!), some as low as 92% of the 2015 speeds. However, one team is expecting to go 13% faster than 2015 on the straights. I quote:

Pat Symonds said:
If that's true, we all missed something!


laugh


Again, it could be Manor or McLaren!

Five teams are said to be simulating lap times between 1:17.3 and 1:18.5 around Barcelona for their 2017 cars. It is revealed that this ‘Team 3’ is simulating a lap time of 1:16.4...Bloody Mercedes again, isn’t it? hehe

The kind of lap times already being talked about is eye popping. I can hardly comprehend the kind of speeds being done this year. Maggots, Becketts and Chapel should be a supernatural sight in qualifying. Some good comments being said about the 2017 tyres too. Here’s hoping that Pirelli don't get over ambitious with building in their beloved cliff.


Who do you see doing well next year?

Muzzer79

9,805 posts

186 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
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With a return to a more aero-dominant formula, and Newey still keeping his eye in, you have to imagine that Red Bull will be up there. They're not far off now.


McLaren have to do well. With more power, I predict regular podiums at least.

Mercedes should still be up there as they have depth in technical staff. I predict a closer fight between them and Red Bull at the top.

Ferrari and McLaren will then fight it out for best amongst the rest.

Flooble

5,565 posts

99 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
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I fear the wider cars are going to make it even harder to get a clean overtake :-(

Dr Z

Original Poster:

3,396 posts

170 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
quotequote all
Muzzer79 said:
With a return to a more aero-dominant formula, and Newey still keeping his eye in, you have to imagine that Red Bull will be up there. They're not far off now.
I suspect the 'Team 3' is Red Bull. We could be in for a Dan vs Max showdown next year, with the Merc drivers in the mix too.

ukaskew

10,642 posts

220 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
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Why would teams be supplying downforce and power data from their simulations to the FIA? Do they have to, for some reason?

enjo

339 posts

137 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
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ukaskew said:
Why would teams be supplying downforce and power data from their simulations to the FIA? Do they have to, for some reason?
To ensure that the tyres will be up to the job?

Derek Smith

45,512 posts

247 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
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When there is change the ones that suffer most are those who benefited most from the previous situation.

In theory this should be Merc. But then they stole a march on the opposition, so they might well have done so again.

I've got no idea, but I have some hopes. But my expectation is somewhat different. One team will have cracked the regs and will have a distinct advantage over the opposition. The only reason I say this is because it has always been thus.

But you never know. We might get lucky and have five different cars winning a race, or more than one, next season.


HustleRussell

24,602 posts

159 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
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It's back to an aero formula for 2017 so I predict Red Bull will be the team to beat next season, Mercedes will still be mixing it with them tough. Ferrari, Torro Rosso and occasionally Renault will conspire to keep McLaren in the lower points playing positions. I think the other teams will lose out early on in the season due to their budgets.

zeDuffMan

4,054 posts

150 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
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Flooble said:
I fear the wider cars are going to make it even harder to get a clean overtake :-(
And more aero will make it even more difficult to keep up when right behind someone. They're going backwards.

Megaflow

9,345 posts

224 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
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zeDuffMan said:
Flooble said:
I fear the wider cars are going to make it even harder to get a clean overtake :-(
And more aero will make it even more difficult to keep up when right behind someone. They're going backwards.
This. This regulation change reverses lots of what has happened over the last 19 years to improve overtaking.

thegreenhell

15,110 posts

218 months

Thursday 27th October 2016
quotequote all
zeDuffMan said:
Flooble said:
I fear the wider cars are going to make it even harder to get a clean overtake :-(
And more aero will make it even more difficult to keep up when right behind someone. They're going backwards.
Plus, more downforce gives more drag, which leads to lower top speeds and higher cornering speeds, so even shorter braking distances for them to attempt an overtake in.

Dr Z

Original Poster:

3,396 posts

170 months

Friday 28th October 2016
quotequote all
Megaflow said:
zeDuffMan said:
Flooble said:
I fear the wider cars are going to make it even harder to get a clean overtake :-(
And more aero will make it even more difficult to keep up when right behind someone. They're going backwards.
This. This regulation change reverses lots of what has happened over the last 19 years to improve overtaking.
It makes sense, in theory. Since we still have a few important unknowns I think it's best to wait till we see the cars racing before making judgements.

Tyre construction can have a huge impact on the racing...and we don't know yet how it will pan out.

The word is that Pirelli are not satisfied that the downforce produced by the mule cars are simulating close to what the actual 2017 cars are going to produce. Bit of a fools errand designing a product based on extrapolations so far off the scale, isn't it?

In any case, I'm looking forward to a healthy increase in race pace. Much needed, IMO

rdjohn

6,135 posts

194 months

Friday 28th October 2016
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While I like to believe that next year has the potential to bring a Force India, Williams or Renault to the front of the grid, in reality I believe that we will only be looking at RB and Mercedes in a position to win a championship.

They have the resources and organisation abilities.

I don't expect the racing to be more open and competetive. I still think we will be talking about Chess, rather than edge of the seat stuff.

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Friday 28th October 2016
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Team 3 is McLaren I reckon; they've done their usual trick of massively overestimating their own performance.

Matt_N

8,900 posts

201 months

Friday 28th October 2016
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rdjohn said:
While I like to believe that next year has the potential to bring a Force India, Williams or Renault to the front of the grid, in reality I believe that we will only be looking at RB and Mercedes in a position to win a championship.
I have to agree with FI and Williams, they seem to have been stagnant / fallen behind in development the past few years.

Renault I think have some scope to improve their performance though, they must have access to a decently sized and funded resource pool.

Redbull must be thinking they are in with a great shout of being regularly competitive next year and I must say it would be good to see 4 cars in the mix with Ferrari there to mop up the rest.

McLaren should see PU performance improve with the introduction of their pre-chamber tech, that should see them more on the level and perhaps able to run the car a bit more freely rather than compromised due to the PU shortcomings?

PhillipM

6,515 posts

188 months

Friday 28th October 2016
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davepoth said:
Team 3 is McLaren I reckon; they've done their usual trick of massively overestimating their own performance.
Don't forget that it's over last years cars, not this years, which means both the Mclaren and the Renault cars were sitting ducks on the straights at the time - the Honda was running out of deployment before it even got halfway down the straight at many tracks, to the point where the car would actually slow back down on the straight.

It's the same with the downforce improvements - Manor were running a 2014 spec car last year and put next to no upgrades on it. They've been working on the 2017 for a long time (I was only chatting to a Manor guy about sidepods the other week as he was saying most teams will shove parts forwards into the undercut and let the bigger bargeboards do the work, but everyone is keeping their cards hidden, he expects most cars to lengthen in wheelbase as a result)

Edited by PhillipM on Friday 28th October 11:41

Hungrymc

6,642 posts

136 months

Friday 28th October 2016
quotequote all
thegreenhell said:
zeDuffMan said:
Flooble said:
I fear the wider cars are going to make it even harder to get a clean overtake :-(
And more aero will make it even more difficult to keep up when right behind someone. They're going backwards.
Plus, more downforce gives more drag, which leads to lower top speeds and higher cornering speeds, so even shorter braking distances for them to attempt an overtake in.
I've been struggling to see the positives in the new regulations. The cars will be fast and dramatic, but I just can't imagine there being any more on track action. Wide cars with far more aero (Therefore more impact on the following car), shorter braking etc. I think F1 are listening to all the talk about the cars not being fast enough (I disagree) and overlooking the want for more on track battles. Hope I'm wrong.

Vaud

50,285 posts

154 months

Friday 28th October 2016
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Dr Z said:
The kind of lap times already being talked about is eye popping. I can hardly comprehend the kind of speeds being done this year. Maggots, Becketts and Chapel should be a supernatural sight in qualifying. S
I'm not sure about this. As a bystander it's very hard to tell 5-10mph increase in corner speed. Each driver will have a style, and ironically a well planted car will look slower vs a faster car that is running a little "wild"?

PhillipM

6,515 posts

188 months

Friday 28th October 2016
quotequote all
Hungrymc said:
I've been struggling to see the positives in the new regulations. The cars will be fast and dramatic, but I just can't imagine there being any more on track action. Wide cars with far more aero (Therefore more impact on the following car), shorter braking etc. I think F1 are listening to all the talk about the cars not being fast enough (I disagree) and overlooking the want for more on track battles. Hope I'm wrong.
They should have just gone with the wider tyres and thinned the wings out a bit, less downforce, not more.

Dr Z

Original Poster:

3,396 posts

170 months

Friday 28th October 2016
quotequote all
Vaud said:
Dr Z said:
The kind of lap times already being talked about is eye popping. I can hardly comprehend the kind of speeds being done this year. Maggots, Becketts and Chapel should be a supernatural sight in qualifying.
I'm not sure about this. As a bystander it's very hard to tell 5-10mph increase in corner speed. Each driver will have a style, and ironically a well planted car will look slower vs a faster car that is running a little "wild"?
Put it this way: if you saw a Manor go through a fast section on a track, followed by the Mercedes, I'm sure you'd see the latter being visibly faster. Next year's Manor will most definitely be faster than this year's Mercedes...that's the kind of improvement we're looking at.

I'm also thinking that more of the spectacle is going to come from the fact that the cars are pushing the drivers a little bit with the increased cornering speed in the race. A lot of this will come down to Pirelli getting the tyres right as we have increased minimum weight and huge increase in downforce...Pirelli will want to build some nice and strong tyres which can handle the kind of loads being expected with the downforce/weight increase. I'm hoping this means that we could see drivers pushing more. I'd be satisfied to see 2010 levels of race pace for a start.