Smart Watches v The Establishment.
Discussion
Re : the earlier thread on the subject of techie watches. This got me thinking.
As smart watches become more and more popular and people move from having a separate phone/smart watch to a smart watch only, does anyone share my view that eventually the established watchmakers, be it Omega, Tag Heuer, Rolex or even the likes of PP and VC will eventually form partnerships with phone manufacturers ?
Let's face it, it would look faintly ridiculous to have a Samsung on one wrist whilst sporting a Seamaster on the other and as their will always be a certain element who must sport a prestige name on their wrist, what better way to combine the two ?
As smart watches become more and more popular and people move from having a separate phone/smart watch to a smart watch only, does anyone share my view that eventually the established watchmakers, be it Omega, Tag Heuer, Rolex or even the likes of PP and VC will eventually form partnerships with phone manufacturers ?
Let's face it, it would look faintly ridiculous to have a Samsung on one wrist whilst sporting a Seamaster on the other and as their will always be a certain element who must sport a prestige name on their wrist, what better way to combine the two ?
As I see it they are unrelated products in the short term. Long term, I think you will see dual devices allowing for mechanical and smart in the same device but only up to a certain price point. A watch is a jewelry item with a basic core function that has not ever been changed. Smart watches will need to be upgradable in the same way phones are or they are utterly pointless. Thus, a smart watch selling for much more than 30-50% of the cost of a decent / high end phone is pointless. I it time it will heavily affect the lower end of the watch market but anything above a few hundred is for most people a purchase they make with the intent of keeping the watch long term. No one is going to buy a smart watch assuming they can wear it for 20 or more years - they will be something one owns for a couple of years at most in general before being upgraded.
But there are some very interesting smart watches on their way...!
And now I am off to the forum looking for inspiration for a watch purchase :-)
But there are some very interesting smart watches on their way...!
And now I am off to the forum looking for inspiration for a watch purchase :-)
I think the low end will be dead when smart watches find their place in the market.
The mid to high end watch market will strengthen in my opinion. Mechanical watches are not just jewellery that tell the time they are timeless jewellery. Finely crafted objects will be a huge growth market in the years to come.
The mid to high end watch market will strengthen in my opinion. Mechanical watches are not just jewellery that tell the time they are timeless jewellery. Finely crafted objects will be a huge growth market in the years to come.
The big players just scraped through the quartz revolution, this will be different. I think there's space for everyone.
People buying the iwatch will come from the Fossil group methinks, Swatch group will do their own thing and grow with it.
There'll be Micheal Korrs skins for smart watches, everyone will be happy.
They seem a nice bit of tech, but I reckon they're too small to replace a smartphone and if they need to be used alongside a phone I think they will end up staying an accessory. I struggle to see what more it really achieves over a phone by itself.
If its going to affect anyone, I'd guess its more likey some of the more common high street watch brands (seiko, swatch, boss, police etc, I could see these all being ignored for a smart watch).
If its going to affect anyone, I'd guess its more likey some of the more common high street watch brands (seiko, swatch, boss, police etc, I could see these all being ignored for a smart watch).
There has been phone watches before, you ended up looking like Michael Knight, and they'll be awkward to use.
Accessory display maybe, but phone watches will be a flash in the pan, chasing the wrong gimmick.
Watch companies will either stick to their guns and use any tacky watch gadgets to polarise opinion more, you either will go old or new, but I'd say some companies would take a wrong turn and do some horrible rap star tie-in app before realising that's not their core market at all.
Accessory display maybe, but phone watches will be a flash in the pan, chasing the wrong gimmick.
Watch companies will either stick to their guns and use any tacky watch gadgets to polarise opinion more, you either will go old or new, but I'd say some companies would take a wrong turn and do some horrible rap star tie-in app before realising that's not their core market at all.
Ian974 said:
If its going to affect anyone, I'd guess its more likey some of the more common high street watch brands (seiko, swatch, boss, police etc, I could see these all being ignored for a smart watch).
I would never ignore my Seikos for a smartwatch . Boss , yes . Police , yes but not my Seikos - completely different to the fashion watches you mention .
The watch industry has faced similar challenges. From 1970 to 1983 the industry shrank from 1600 manufacturers to just 600 with the introduction of the quartz watch. The industry fought back and the swatch was born. The high end guys moved up market with their offering.
I don't think the Stern family will be selling up anytime soon and given the relevance of watches was bought into question again by the advent of mobile phones with the time display hasn't diminished the appetite for a decent watch on your wrist. Capabilities of a cheap digital watch far exceed the mechanical alternatives but they don't come anywhere near the beauty of a hand crafted time piece.
You may see shift in demographic and geographic targeting by product and entry price but don't hold your breath.
I don't think the Stern family will be selling up anytime soon and given the relevance of watches was bought into question again by the advent of mobile phones with the time display hasn't diminished the appetite for a decent watch on your wrist. Capabilities of a cheap digital watch far exceed the mechanical alternatives but they don't come anywhere near the beauty of a hand crafted time piece.
You may see shift in demographic and geographic targeting by product and entry price but don't hold your breath.
A bloke in the office has a smart watch (a Samsung) it just looks stupid and i've never seen him use it, I'd hate to talk to my watch in private, let alone in front of people.
On holiday earlier in the year a very good looking girl in a bar had one on and it looked stupid, she was also telling me how she needs to be near her phone for it all to work.
Bottom line is I think they make you look like a virgin, give me a decent mechanical swiss item any day of the week.
On holiday earlier in the year a very good looking girl in a bar had one on and it looked stupid, she was also telling me how she needs to be near her phone for it all to work.
Bottom line is I think they make you look like a virgin, give me a decent mechanical swiss item any day of the week.
There's no substitute for a beautiful movement imo. For that reason I think the prestige brands will be largely non-plussed.
I do also think though that smart watches are a step too far into nerdsville.. I don't feel totally comfortable asking Google Now to direct me somewhere in public, I sure as hell am not going to start holding my watch up to my mouth or face for any reason. Even without that stuff most peoples phones are readily available - it is not a massive inconvenience to me to pull my phone out of my pocket, read the generously sized screen, then put it away again. I really don't see what I am gaining by looking at a screen that by virtue of its placement is of limited size and utility.
The BPM/gym stuff is interesting, but there is already wristbands that work for that, and you're not in the gym all the time so wearing a watch full time seems a bit redundant.
Then again Apple have in the past cultivated a need where none existed, and they are credited with bringing tablets back into vogue, etc - so they might surprise us.
I do also think though that smart watches are a step too far into nerdsville.. I don't feel totally comfortable asking Google Now to direct me somewhere in public, I sure as hell am not going to start holding my watch up to my mouth or face for any reason. Even without that stuff most peoples phones are readily available - it is not a massive inconvenience to me to pull my phone out of my pocket, read the generously sized screen, then put it away again. I really don't see what I am gaining by looking at a screen that by virtue of its placement is of limited size and utility.
The BPM/gym stuff is interesting, but there is already wristbands that work for that, and you're not in the gym all the time so wearing a watch full time seems a bit redundant.
Then again Apple have in the past cultivated a need where none existed, and they are credited with bringing tablets back into vogue, etc - so they might surprise us.
Edited by Durzel on Monday 8th September 01:43
272BHP said:
I think the low end will be dead when smart watches find their place in the market.
The mid to high end watch market will strengthen in my opinion. Mechanical watches are not just jewellery that tell the time they are timeless jewellery. Finely crafted objects will be a huge growth market in the years to come.
I would agree with this. Post Quartz-Crisis, the value of the mid->high Swiss brands has been built on the way that they are a bizarre form of very modern anachronism. Patek or Vacheron releasing a digital watch is unthinkable, likewise Rolex putting their name to something which would become obsolete inside of a decade. Different market values entirely.The mid to high end watch market will strengthen in my opinion. Mechanical watches are not just jewellery that tell the time they are timeless jewellery. Finely crafted objects will be a huge growth market in the years to come.
The low end is toast, though. Anything quartz and multi-utility (G-Shocks?) will be under threat.
There are some good points being made on the thread, so I thought I'd add in a few observations that come more-or-less from the horse's mouth. I work with a number of luxury brands which means that I do have contact with some of the watch manufacturers. They are interested to see where smart watches and wearable technologies might start to impact their businesses. They are worried about falling unit sales but equally they are wondering if there is an opportunity too.
Fewer younger people are wearing (or even buying) watches as their smart phone tells them the time. If this trend continues then we'll see young adults adopting the same approach (it's probably already happening) which will lead to lower watch sales. This is bad for the whole industry but also for the luxury brands as over time (a lifetime, sometimes) watch wearers do trade up. Think of all the various watches you've had over your teenage and early twenties years. You'll have bought a few and probably seen many of them as disposable (most evident at the lower-priced end of the market). Most men eventually get to a point where they want a good quality watch and generally aspire to the usual well-known brands. The challenge for these brands is getting you to that point as early as possible.
Luxury watches (for most people, not us watch obsessives) are aspirational purchases or are achievement/milestone purchases. The brands know very well when and why their watches are purchased: 18th or 21st birthdays, graduation presents, retirement gifts, promoted-at-work-self-congratulatory-rewards etc etc.
But what if fashion/culture/technology means that some of that potential market is taken away? How do you defend your territory? Do you try to compete? We've already seen the impact that the quartz revolution had and back in the seventies pretty much all the big brands launched quartz watches. Do you set up strategic partnerships to work together? An early example of this could be the partnership between JLC and Aston Martin. This has fused technologies and applications to give a watch that will remotely unlock your car. And how big is the market for a JLC/Aston Martin watch? Very small, but it's a start in understanding how to build future functionality into a mechanical watch.
HP (which in the seventies offered a digital watch) is due to launch a smart watch which will be compatible with both iOS and Android. HP has collaborated with Michael Bastian, a US fashion designer, and the watches will be available only through the Gilt luxury brands website.
Google has approached Luxotica (owners of Oakley and Ray Ban sunglasses plus a myriad of other brand names) as it believes that wearable technology needs to be stylish and fashionable. Google Glass currently is a rather uninspiring wire frame design and while I am sure it will sell in volume, wouldn't you like it to look good? Wearable technologies will have an impact on us too, as if you have a HUD projected in front of you, I'll bet it will show data such as time and date as well as temperature, direction, location and a variety of other configurable information items. Who needs a watch then?
What's interesting is the way that technology is now being perceived as luxury. In the US, the Tesla S has become a competitor to the Aston Martin Rapide, yet the Tesla is a third of the price. What if a smart watch became a direct competitor to a luxury mechanical watch? In the seventies this happened, when new-fangled digitals with high accuracy and extra functions became the must-wear item.
My gut feel is that we will see some forays into smart watches from some of the mid-tier brands. Longer term, I think the future of the mechanical watch is secure as people continue to buy them in order to appreciate (as they do today) the craftsmanship and engineering that goes into them. As our lives become ever more automated and regimented by our devices, I think we'll see more pleasure from things like mechanical watches and fountain pens
Fewer younger people are wearing (or even buying) watches as their smart phone tells them the time. If this trend continues then we'll see young adults adopting the same approach (it's probably already happening) which will lead to lower watch sales. This is bad for the whole industry but also for the luxury brands as over time (a lifetime, sometimes) watch wearers do trade up. Think of all the various watches you've had over your teenage and early twenties years. You'll have bought a few and probably seen many of them as disposable (most evident at the lower-priced end of the market). Most men eventually get to a point where they want a good quality watch and generally aspire to the usual well-known brands. The challenge for these brands is getting you to that point as early as possible.
Luxury watches (for most people, not us watch obsessives) are aspirational purchases or are achievement/milestone purchases. The brands know very well when and why their watches are purchased: 18th or 21st birthdays, graduation presents, retirement gifts, promoted-at-work-self-congratulatory-rewards etc etc.
But what if fashion/culture/technology means that some of that potential market is taken away? How do you defend your territory? Do you try to compete? We've already seen the impact that the quartz revolution had and back in the seventies pretty much all the big brands launched quartz watches. Do you set up strategic partnerships to work together? An early example of this could be the partnership between JLC and Aston Martin. This has fused technologies and applications to give a watch that will remotely unlock your car. And how big is the market for a JLC/Aston Martin watch? Very small, but it's a start in understanding how to build future functionality into a mechanical watch.
HP (which in the seventies offered a digital watch) is due to launch a smart watch which will be compatible with both iOS and Android. HP has collaborated with Michael Bastian, a US fashion designer, and the watches will be available only through the Gilt luxury brands website.
Google has approached Luxotica (owners of Oakley and Ray Ban sunglasses plus a myriad of other brand names) as it believes that wearable technology needs to be stylish and fashionable. Google Glass currently is a rather uninspiring wire frame design and while I am sure it will sell in volume, wouldn't you like it to look good? Wearable technologies will have an impact on us too, as if you have a HUD projected in front of you, I'll bet it will show data such as time and date as well as temperature, direction, location and a variety of other configurable information items. Who needs a watch then?
What's interesting is the way that technology is now being perceived as luxury. In the US, the Tesla S has become a competitor to the Aston Martin Rapide, yet the Tesla is a third of the price. What if a smart watch became a direct competitor to a luxury mechanical watch? In the seventies this happened, when new-fangled digitals with high accuracy and extra functions became the must-wear item.
My gut feel is that we will see some forays into smart watches from some of the mid-tier brands. Longer term, I think the future of the mechanical watch is secure as people continue to buy them in order to appreciate (as they do today) the craftsmanship and engineering that goes into them. As our lives become ever more automated and regimented by our devices, I think we'll see more pleasure from things like mechanical watches and fountain pens
Edited by Spice_Weasel on Monday 8th September 12:45
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