Airliners in 45 years ?

[J4CKO]

Just watched this, from the year of my birth (and the 747, about which I am reading the excellent book "Wide Body" as recommended on here) and made me wonder how far airliners have come since then,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urZMCvCl0b8

Needs the volume up for the full effect.


They look broadly similar but are a lot smokier and noisier, this took me back to hearing the howls from Manchester airport and seeing the plumes of crud as they went over, right on the flightpath pretty much, my parents still live there and it is amazing how clean and quiet modern jets are, still hear it but there is nothing like the complete fury of a 1-11 trying to drag its underpowered arse heavenwards on a warm day, that will it/wont it feeling despite it trying its hardest, then a 727 seemingly requiring a lot less effort !

They dont look radically different now, a tube with wings but configurations seem to have settled on two engines, on the wings slung underneath, we have winglets of varying types but have lost the variations, not really any tri jets left, limited number with 4 engines now.

I know a lot has gone on under the skin, safety is much improved but where will be be in another 45 years ?

If by some miracle I live until 90, what would I be flying on ?

[anonymous-user]

"Delta" or single wing jets with engines that are embedded within the design to improve Aero efficiency / dynamics (once Op reliability increases).

I doubt you will see an all new passenger jet (from Airbus or Boeing) for the next 10-15 years as they will focus on improvement to existing airframes.

This is quite interesting, with some "Novel" ideas such as sky cruise ships, super jets that contain smaller "landing" vessels ... etc!!

http://www.airbus.com/innovation/future-by-airbus/

[anonymous-user]

Trexthedinosaur said:

I doubt you will see an all new passenger jet (from Airbus or Boeing) for the next 10-15 years as they will focus on improvement to existing airframes.

Boeing will be building a 757 replacement in that time frame. It will fill the gap between the 737 and 787 and likely look much like a smaller single aisle 787.

[Eric Mc]

At the moment the long 737s are more or less the replacement for the 757. I wonder how long the 737 will stay in production.

[ReaderScars]

Do you not think in 45 years we'll be past getting ferried around by mere machines with (relatively) appalling safety records through component failure, user pilot/nav/engineer error?

[anonymous-user]

ReaderScars said:

Do you not think in 45 years we'll be past getting ferried around by mere machines with (relatively) appalling safety records through component failure, user pilot/nav/engineer error?

Teleportation?

[jamiem555]

I don't think they will be radically different to be honest. Just gradual improvements in efficiency and materials. The shape will probably be the same. Delta wings are only good for supersonic or there abouts and I don't see any airliner doing that again.

[TimJMS]

All the small gains since the 707 have been in materials and engine development. There is nothing out there now any faster or sexier than 1958.

I'd like to think we will be getting around the planet in super efficient, ultra fast lifepods running inside vacuum - filled tunnels, like scaled up department store Lamson tubes from yesteryear, only pulling a few less G.

[anonymous-user]

TimJMS said:

All the small gains since the 707 have been in materials and engine development. There is nothing out there now any faster or sexier than 1958.

I'd like to think we will be getting around the planet in super efficient, ultra fast lifepods running inside vacuum - filled tunnels, like scaled up department store Lamson tubes from yesteryear, only pulling a few less G.

It will be interesting to see if and how Hyperloop develops over the next decade or so.

[ReaderScars]

garyhun said:

Teleportation?

Well, given the speed of science and technological developments, and the fact that particles are already being teletransported (2014) then I think something like that sort of method will be relatively common for longer distances.

[hairyben]

What are the practical size limitations of drone style multirotor vehicles?

As we continue to expand in population and congest the earths surface the challenges to use the resource that is the sky for all sorts of commuting needs to be met.

[davepoth]

jamiem555 said:

I don't think they will be radically different to be honest. Just gradual improvements in efficiency and materials. The shape will probably be the same. Delta wings are only good for supersonic or there abouts and I don't see any airliner doing that again.

Not true - the wetted area of a true (tailless) flying wing is much lower than a conventional plane - something like a 40% reduction is possible according to this paper:

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=NG2_qiSjmMEC&a...

The reason we haven't seen them AIUI is that it would require a fairly radical reconfiguration of airport terminals, which would be really expensive.

[rustyuk]

Unless warp travel is invented then I can't see much improvement coming soon. Just gradual increases in efficiency and comfort.

Worked at RR for a few years and everyone seemed to be focusing on a few % points in fuel efficiency rather than the next big thing. Always disappointed me a little...

[jamiem555]

davepoth said:

Not true - the wetted area of a true (tailless) flying wing is much lower than a conventional plane - something like a 40% reduction is possible according to this paper:

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=NG2_qiSjmMEC&a...

The reason we haven't seen them AIUI is that it would require a fairly radical reconfiguration of airport terminals, which would be really expensive.

Which is the reason why things won't change much. The drive in aviation is to more efficiency and greater profit. Also the green side is playing a bigger part.
It would be fantastic to go back to the 50's and be involved in all the weird and wonderful stuff then but I think that will never happen again.

[David87]

Will anyone have a crack at a Concorde-type aircraft again? Such a shame we have gone backwards in terms of speed - a 707 must be virtually as fast as anything in the skies today!

[jamiem555]

I would doubt it. The costs involved are phenomenal. It's not easy breaking the sound barrier and very expensive to manufacture and maintain any aircraft that does.

[surveyor]

I think the progress will be in engines....

and maybe Boeing will design a new 737, one which was not based in the 60's...

[fatboy b]

Eric Mc said:

At the moment the long 737s are more or less the replacement for the 757. I wonder how long the 737 will stay in production.

The current order book (4500) equates to about 50% of what's been made so far. So I'd think a few more years yet.

[Evanivitch]

David87 said:

Will anyone have a crack at a Concorde-type aircraft again? Such a shame we have gone backwards in terms of speed - a 707 must be virtually as fast as anything in the skies today!

Not unless there's a major break through in shockwaves management. You've seen how much of a fuss a pair of Typhoons going supersonic in the UK attract, imagine If that was a regular event. It would go against all current litigation to manage noise.

We might see a private jet do it, something that can cross the Atlantic or Pacific in record pace. The rich are only getting richer, and even technology can't emulate your CEO giving you the hairdryer treatment from across an ocean.

[uncinqsix]

I think that what we'll see will look pretty similar to what we have now, but it won't be running on fossil fuels.

Might see something radical in the engine department though.