The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

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Big Al.

Original Poster:

68,798 posts

257 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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johnxjsc1985

15,948 posts

163 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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Boris bringing the old favourite "Adolf" into the debate saying the EU want a European super state just like Adolf. That's bound to go down well

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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johnxjsc1985 said:
Boris bringing the old favourite "Adolf" into the debate saying the EU want a European super state just like Adolf. That's bound to go down well
Remain are howling already, having raised the spectre of world war previously.

TEKNOPUG

18,844 posts

204 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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AstonZagato said:
I worked for a US Iinvestment bank. They headquartered their European operations in London. 6,000 people. Frankfurt was a satellite office. 200 people. If you are going to move senior management to, say, Frankfurt, why duplicate roles (Head of EU compliance in Frankfurt and Head of European Compliance in London)? You would just move your European Head to Frankfurt.
The head people will want the other senior people close by. The senior people will want their juniors close by. The juniors want to be close to the person who decides their bonus. They then find that the office space costs a fraction of what it does in London. The staff accommodation costs less too so, even after relocation costs, remuneration is lower. London becomes a branch of the Frankfurt office.
Having lived in Frankfurt, I can tell you it works as a city. Traffic flows better than London. The airport is better, closer and easier. The work/life balance is better (if you have a family).
That being the case, why aren't they already headquartered in Frankfurt? In fact, why aren't all US Investment banks already headquartered in Frankfurt. They wouldn't even need a London office. Frankfurt has all these great things going for it and is never going to be outside of the EU (whilst it exists), so why is everyone of any note already headquartered in London? It can't be because of our EU membership can it, because you've already stated all the benefits of Frankfurt and that's also in the EU. Maybe there are other, more compelling reasons....scratchchin

zbc

849 posts

150 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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TEKNOPUG said:
That being the case, why aren't they already headquartered in Frankfurt? In fact, why aren't all US Investment banks already headquartered in Frankfurt. They wouldn't even need a London office. Frankfurt has all these great things going for it and is never going to be outside of the EU (whilst it exists), so why is everyone of any note already headquartered in London? It can't be because of our EU membership can it, because you've already stated all the benefits of Frankfurt and that's also in the EU. Maybe there are other, more compelling reasons....scratchchin
Of course there are, language and culture just to start with.

But being in the EU with completely free and unlimited access to the whole EU marketplace is also a reason and for sure we won't be blocked out of it afterwards but we will just have the same level of access as lots of other non-EU countries. No I don't think that all the banks will move overnight but for some that slight change will be the tipping point, as it will for other companies looking for FDI opportunities in other industries. Maybe there will be gains that will compensate, I don't know but to suggest that no companies will even consider it would be disingenuous.

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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AstonZagato said:
The head people will want the other senior people close by. The senior people will want their juniors close by. The juniors want to be close to the person who decides their bonus.
They are close by anywhere these days. Did the American bankers fly around Europe for the sake of it rather than have telephone conference calls / use videoconferencing / send emails / develop websites and web tools?

If cheapo Frankfurt really worked that well with transport and all the other super advantages outlined at the end of the old thread then why do folks not upsticks and go there now? The answer is London, and it'll still be around whatever happens in June.

There was a DT article linked in the old thread, where posts can't be quoted now, titled "Business as usual for City banks if UK left the EU" and subtitled "London-based banks would still have access to European financial markets, according to a new report". It looks to a non-finance sector person as though the clouding of the issue with Fear is as alive in this regard as any other.

Jockman

17,912 posts

159 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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johnxjsc1985 said:
Boris bringing the old favourite "Adolf" into the debate saying the EU want a European super state just like Adolf. That's bound to go down well
I'm going to have to listen to his words but if correct if anyone can shut him up please do so. This is why, despite liking the guy, I can't see him as PM material.

Then I look at Osborne and I like Boris again.

TEKNOPUG

18,844 posts

204 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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zbc said:
Maybe there will be gains that will compensate, I don't know but to suggest that no companies will even consider it would be disingenuous.
I don't know if they'll leave either or whether there will be gains to compensate. I don't know what companies will consider doing on the outcome of either vote or what decisions they may make in the next 5 years. I don't think anyone does. So it's seems a but pointless to make any EU vote decision based upon utter guesswork without any tangible evidence to support either proposition. This seems particularly apposite to all the financial arguments revolving the referendum. For every job and tax-pound lost, there could be another one gained. No one knows, it's all guess work and unsubstantiated theories used to support whatever your personal opinion is. You may as well argue what the weather is going to be like in 12months time - I don't know but the sun will rise and there will be some weather...

Pan Pan Pan

9,777 posts

110 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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Jockman said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
Boris bringing the old favourite "Adolf" into the debate saying the EU want a European super state just like Adolf. That's bound to go down well
I'm going to have to listen to his words but if correct if anyone can shut him up please do so. This is why, despite liking the guy, I can't see him as PM material.

Then I look at Osborne and I like Boris again.
I don't particularly like Johnson, but neither do I like the politically correct ploy of shouting him down for using the H and N connotations, for the perfectly valid comparison with what happened then, to what is happening now in relation to Europe and the UK.
If anyone cannot see the remarkable similarities, they are just being deliberately dense.

grumbledoak

31,499 posts

232 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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Jockman said:
I'm going to have to listen to his words but if correct if anyone can shut him up please do so. This is why, despite liking the guy, I can't see him as PM material.
You may wish to hear his actual words before writing him off as PM material. Oh, too late.

JagLover

42,266 posts

234 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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grumbledoak said:
Jockman said:
I'm going to have to listen to his words but if correct if anyone can shut him up please do so. This is why, despite liking the guy, I can't see him as PM material.
You may wish to hear his actual words before writing him off as PM material. Oh, too late.
BorisJohnson said:
Mr Johnson told The Sunday Telegraph that the EU lacked democracy and a unifying authority and was doomed to fail.
“Napoleon, Hitler, various people tried this out, and it ends tragically,” he was quoted as saying in an interview.
“The EU is an attempt to do this by different methods. But fundamentally what is lacking is the eternal problem, which is that there is no underlying loyalty to the idea of Europe, ” the former London mayor said.
“There is no single authority that anybody respects or understands. That is causing this massive democratic void.”

AstonZagato

12,652 posts

209 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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TEKNOPUG said:
That being the case, why aren't they already headquartered in Frankfurt? In fact, why aren't all US Investment banks already headquartered in Frankfurt. They wouldn't even need a London office. Frankfurt has all these great things going for it and is never going to be outside of the EU (whilst it exists), so why is everyone of any note already headquartered in London? It can't be because of our EU membership can it, because you've already stated all the benefits of Frankfurt and that's also in the EU. Maybe there are other, more compelling reasons....scratchchin
Frankfurt isn't dominant because London is currently in the EU. London, as I said in my much earlier post, has innate advantages when on a level playing field. The playing field would be tilted by an out vote - tilted in Frankfurt's favour.

Take the Swiss. They have headquartered their investment bank operations not in Switzerland (they would dearly love to - I worked for a Swiss bank for 8 years and they loathe that London has the upper hand) but inside the EU for the very reasons I outlined. They need senior management for the investment bank inside the EU. If London is not in the EU, then that decision would have to be questioned.

Again, I am voting out but I think it is blind to say that it will have no impact on the financial services industry. I have 30 years of experience in the area - the majority of which has been in senior management or partnership roles.

AstonZagato

12,652 posts

209 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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turbobloke said:
They are close by anywhere these days. Did the American bankers fly around Europe for the sake of it rather than have telephone conference calls / use videoconferencing / send emails / develop websites and web tools?
I used to fly about 250,000 miles a year. So yes they do fly. A lot. I'm still on a plane most weeks. But this is about the permanent base of senior management. It will have to be inside the EU.

turbobloke said:
If cheapo Frankfurt really worked that well with transport and all the other super advantages outlined at the end of the old thread then why do folks not upsticks and go there now? The answer is London, and it'll still be around whatever happens in June.
Because London is inside the EU and has a better pool of talent. Outside of the EU the equation shifts (and so might the talent).

turbobloke said:
There was a DT article linked in the old thread, where posts can't be quoted now, titled "Business as usual for City banks if UK left the EU" and subtitled "London-based banks would still have access to European financial markets, according to a new report". It looks to a non-finance sector person as though the clouding of the issue with Fear is as alive in this regard as any other.
I have been talking to a lot of regulatory bodies and trade organisations as this massively affects my business. The one I set up and built with my partners. We employ people.

The people I have talked to would be the peoplle who would know. They don't know. Their assumption is that, initially, little would change. All our regulations are currently EU compliant. There would be a transition period for people to change their structures and relocate.

But over time, there would be an issue.

London's access to EU markets would be part of the trade agreement with the EU. That is unknown. And frankly, I don't think any UK politician has the faintest idea what to negotiate. Whenever I have engaged with one, they have no concept of the value of what we have and the important points. The only important thing is getting re-elected. Bankers are therefore the enemy.

Furthermore, our regulations would drift from EU ones, meaning our products could not be easily sold in the EU. Over time, it would become more difficult to have a single centre in the UK.

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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AstonZagato said:
davepoth said:
AstonZagato said:
davepoth said:
AstonZagato said:
Credit Suisse and UBS have headquartered their investment banks in London because they can't do so in Switzerland and be inside the EU. Senior management and compliance need to be located inside the EU.
EU senior management and EU compliance need to be inside the EU, so any banks' EU presence needs to be no more than a branch office if that's what they decide to do.
I wish it were that simple.
So how does it work then? What does a bank whose head office is in (for example) New York do? Move their head office to Europe, or incorporate a division of the company there which has responsibility for just the EU?
I worked for a US Iinvestment bank. They headquartered their European operations in London. 6,000 people. Frankfurt was a satellite office. 200 people. If you are going to move senior management to, say, Frankfurt, why duplicate roles (Head of EU compliance in Frankfurt and Head of European Compliance in London)? You would just move your European Head to Frankfurt.
The head people will want the other senior people close by. The senior people will want their juniors close by. The juniors want to be close to the person who decides their bonus. They then find that the office space costs a fraction of what it does in London. The staff accommodation costs less too so, even after relocation costs, remuneration is lower. London becomes a branch of the Frankfurt office.
Having lived in Frankfurt, I can tell you it works as a city. Traffic flows better than London. The airport is better, closer and easier. The work/life balance is better (if you have a family).
But that's a bit of a different thing, isn't it? You original comment said that a bank's senior management has to be in the EU. The only bit of a bank's senior management that needs to be in the EU is the bit mandated by the EU under the EU rules, and that is the part that deals with trades that take place within the EU. Whether or not they move their HQ or European HQ to the EEA is down to their particular circumstances.

And the only difference in case of Brexit for a bank wanting to do business in Frankfurt is that rather than passporting into the EEA the bank would have its EEA operations regulated by the country it based its operations in rather than by the UK authorities. Now, a lot of those banks have based themselves in the UK for reasons unrelated to passporting (ease of doing business with the US and Asia, regulatory environment, and so forth) so there are a lot of non-EU related reasons for having your international or regional HQ here. Just ask someone like Standard Chartered Bank, who do virtually no business in the EU at all but are still headquartered in London. Or that famous London institution, the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation.

272BHP

4,960 posts

235 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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I am confused by the polls to be honest.

I talk to a broad range of people and I can only think of a couple that actually want to remain in the EU, the vast majority seem to want out and many are quite forthright in their views.

What does everyone else see on the ground?




danllama

5,728 posts

141 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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Same here. The polls don't tally with my experience at all.

And to the comment re: age on the previous thread, to believe it's over 60's who want out, due to some imagined rose tinted specs, it's not only insulting, it's delusional.

I would wager the bulk of 25-100 year olds want out, but I'm not a betting man.

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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danllama said:
Same here. The polls don't tally with my experience at all.

And to the comment re: age on the previous thread, to believe it's over 60's who want out, due to some imagined rose tinted specs, it's not only insulting, it's delusional.

I would wager the bulk of 25-100 year olds want out, but I'm not a betting man.
"Shy Tory" syndrome again?

I'm not certain. All of the people I know who live in London are for Remain, and a lot of people I speak to are still undecided.

Referendums where the split isn't along party lines (as it was in Scotland) are hard for pollers to call.

Cobalt Blue

215 posts

195 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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272BHP said:
I am confused by the polls to be honest.

I talk to a broad range of people and I can only think of a couple that actually want to remain in the EU, the vast majority seem to want out and many are quite forthright in their views.

What does everyone else see on the ground?
I live a sheltered life in my isolated rural bunker and speak to few people. I do, however, spend time on fora and browsing comments on the broadsheets. I see vanishingly few pro-EU comments amongst a deluge of anti-EU vitriol.

A prime example of this is today's smear-attack on Boris Johnson in the Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/15/bo...

Despite the negative article, few commentators are supportive of the EU. Plenty of people who dislike Boris, but that is not the same as liking the EU.

Can it be that only outers can be bothered to comment? If so, this might readily be extrapolated to likelihood of actually turning out to vote.

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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Cobalt Blue said:
Can it be that only outers can be bothered to comment? If so, this might readily be extrapolated to likelihood of actually turning out to vote.
Compare to the Scotland vote. "Yes" were by far the largest presence in the media, online, and anywhere else you can think of, but "No" still won.

However, we have to consider that the people who voted "Yes" in Scotland are likely to vote "Remain" this time around, so if there is a lunatic fringe of "leave" voters then it's a completely different set of people to the Scotland referendum.

zygalski

7,759 posts

144 months

Sunday 15th May 2016
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Cobalt Blue said:
I live a sheltered life in my isolated rural bunker and speak to few people. I do, however, spend time on fora and browsing comments on the broadsheets. I see vanishingly few pro-EU comments amongst a deluge of anti-EU vitriol.

A prime example of this is today's smear-attack on Boris Johnson in the Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/15/bo...

Despite the negative article, few commentators are supportive of the EU. Plenty of people who dislike Boris, but that is not the same as liking the EU.

Can it be that only outers can be bothered to comment? If so, this might readily be extrapolated to likelihood of actually turning out to vote.
I think it's more the silent majority phenomenon.
Went out for a 10 mile cycle ride today & saw 5 or 6 Leave banners by the roadside. Zero remain ones. Can't really imagine that the vote will be 100% Brexit.
He who shouts loudest & most often ain't necessarily representative of the majority rolleyes