Automation - How far can it go?
Discussion
Morning all,
The BBC News had a piece this morning about Amazon starting a very limited trial of drone deliveries in the UK. Google & co are likely to have done away with driving - and therefore, the jobs of commercial drivers - within a couple of decades. William Hague's piece in the Telegraph this morning talks about white collar workers being made obsolete at a faster rate in the 21st century than blue collar workers were in the 20th century.
This is all highly probable, and some of the technology coming down the lines these days is just staggering, but ultimately, how long can this irresistible force of technological development continue before it hits the immovable economic obstacle that you always need enough people earning enough money to actually buy stuff, and if they've all been replaced by machines, they're not going to have enough money to buy the stuff the machines are making, selling & delivering.
Is there a technology high water mark beyond which there's no point developing technology any further, or are we just going to evolve the jobs we do so that we all work like we do now, just doing different jobs?
If we are all going to be working just as much in different jobs, what do we think those jobs might be?
The BBC News had a piece this morning about Amazon starting a very limited trial of drone deliveries in the UK. Google & co are likely to have done away with driving - and therefore, the jobs of commercial drivers - within a couple of decades. William Hague's piece in the Telegraph this morning talks about white collar workers being made obsolete at a faster rate in the 21st century than blue collar workers were in the 20th century.
This is all highly probable, and some of the technology coming down the lines these days is just staggering, but ultimately, how long can this irresistible force of technological development continue before it hits the immovable economic obstacle that you always need enough people earning enough money to actually buy stuff, and if they've all been replaced by machines, they're not going to have enough money to buy the stuff the machines are making, selling & delivering.
Is there a technology high water mark beyond which there's no point developing technology any further, or are we just going to evolve the jobs we do so that we all work like we do now, just doing different jobs?
If we are all going to be working just as much in different jobs, what do we think those jobs might be?
RobDickinson said:
Much further than we are now.
We'll automate almost every job out of existence in the next 40-50 years....
Theres already cheap ($20k) one armed robots to replace cheap repetitive labour
Sure, low-skilled repetitive labour has already largely gone the way of automation in developed economies, but what we're looking at next is the demise of the middle class, skilled white collar worker.We'll automate almost every job out of existence in the next 40-50 years....
Theres already cheap ($20k) one armed robots to replace cheap repetitive labour
I'm not questioning the notion that technology could replace most of us, but fundamentally, someone needs to pay for the technology.
If you and I and millions like us lose our jobs to technology, we no longer have wages to pay for the products being produced by that technology. If we can't buy the products the technology produces, then companies can't afford to keep buying more technology.
I'm sure that there are plenty more jobs still to go, and despite the demise of labour intensive manufacturing in this country, we are still effectively at full employment today, but how much longer can that continue? Certainly not to the point of eliminating almost every job, I don't think!
We are already seeing increasing concentrations of wealth, along with stagnation of earnings for those at or below median earnings, before the impact of automation hits to any meaningful extent.
It is very real IMO but the impact should not be exaggerated. Saying a sector is "80% exposed to automation" does not mean it will all be automated. Some tasks will be automated meaning that sector will lose employment, just not 80% of it.
Once you add this to the increasing pressure on the average worker due to globalisation it will create a "perfect storm" IMO. Only governments who recognise the true issues will survive. The rest will be swept away by populist parties of the left or right, and the establishments control of the media will not save them.
It is very real IMO but the impact should not be exaggerated. Saying a sector is "80% exposed to automation" does not mean it will all be automated. Some tasks will be automated meaning that sector will lose employment, just not 80% of it.
Once you add this to the increasing pressure on the average worker due to globalisation it will create a "perfect storm" IMO. Only governments who recognise the true issues will survive. The rest will be swept away by populist parties of the left or right, and the establishments control of the media will not save them.
Kermit power said:
If you and I and millions like us lose our jobs to technology, we no longer have wages to pay for the products being produced by that technology. If we can't buy the products the technology produces, then companies can't afford to keep buying more technology.
I'm sure that there are plenty more jobs still to go, and despite the demise of labour intensive manufacturing in this country, we are still effectively at full employment today, but how much longer can that continue? Certainly not to the point of eliminating almost every job, I don't think!
It is not a switch that is flicked it is a slow process that tilts the balance further in favour of capital and away from labour. The economy might well still have healthy employment stats but there is likely to be more underemployment and further pressure on median earnings (which have already been stagnant since the mid 2000s here and mid 1990s in America)I'm sure that there are plenty more jobs still to go, and despite the demise of labour intensive manufacturing in this country, we are still effectively at full employment today, but how much longer can that continue? Certainly not to the point of eliminating almost every job, I don't think!
Worried your job will be taken over by a drone?
Then start learning how to maintain drones.
I'm sure every generation feels threatened by technological progress but people and business historically adapt, and the death of old markets leads to the birth of new ones. A kid growing up today surely has a million more ways to make a living now than our parents did.
At the age I lost my first tooth, the job I do now didn't exist, and probably wouldn't have been conceivable.
Then start learning how to maintain drones.
I'm sure every generation feels threatened by technological progress but people and business historically adapt, and the death of old markets leads to the birth of new ones. A kid growing up today surely has a million more ways to make a living now than our parents did.
At the age I lost my first tooth, the job I do now didn't exist, and probably wouldn't have been conceivable.
I used to think I was set up for life in the field I work designing jigs for the assembly of cars, but as 3D printing gets more and more advanced, I'm wondering how long it will be until massive complex parts, that would usually require a lot of our work, are instead 'printed'. I guess we'll get the first sign of it when the low production cars stop needing us first at least.
But one of our side projects for a customer was to automate a checking sequence of contact lens blanks which will be putting 2 people out of full time work and I felt pretty s
tty working on it given the cost the customer had chucked at it.
But one of our side projects for a customer was to automate a checking sequence of contact lens blanks which will be putting 2 people out of full time work and I felt pretty s
tty working on it given the cost the customer had chucked at it.Edited by Boydie88 on Tuesday 26th July 11:44
I've contracted out my social media and PH posting to an automated service.
Muslims, rear wheel drive, Mx5, her in doors, filthy rich bankers.... Bang...!
Seems it's blown a circuit.
As an aside I think it was Bill Hicks, or maybe George Carlin who observed how ridiculous the obsession with the unemployment figures when assessing a successful economy, surely the goal would be to get to a point where no one works?
Muslims, rear wheel drive, Mx5, her in doors, filthy rich bankers.... Bang...!
Seems it's blown a circuit.
As an aside I think it was Bill Hicks, or maybe George Carlin who observed how ridiculous the obsession with the unemployment figures when assessing a successful economy, surely the goal would be to get to a point where no one works?
sure automation will kill off some jobs like children crawling under cotton looms to clear the derbies etc, but often old jobs are replaced by new ones. Example Blockbuster Videa closed its doors, but now we have amazon prime and netflicks etc sure people who worked at blockbuster might not have gone to Amazon but someone did i.e. new opportunities arose.
Then we have drones dropping of parcels well dronew will need to be serviced, saft checked, redesigned, repaired etc someone will have to do that or design an build a drone to do it which itself will need to be serviced.
Automated cars well we could I guess build a tesla with other robots an have parts ent to factory by self drive lorry and so on an so forth but somewhere someone has to tell the drone what to do etc. An then fix it when it breaks just like humans fail so will machines etc.
We are a long way from machines taking over but if they can make life easy then so be it
Then we have drones dropping of parcels well dronew will need to be serviced, saft checked, redesigned, repaired etc someone will have to do that or design an build a drone to do it which itself will need to be serviced.
Automated cars well we could I guess build a tesla with other robots an have parts ent to factory by self drive lorry and so on an so forth but somewhere someone has to tell the drone what to do etc. An then fix it when it breaks just like humans fail so will machines etc.
We are a long way from machines taking over but if they can make life easy then so be it
Getragdogleg said:
I do self store containers and house removals, cant see that getting automated anytime soon.
perhaps but your storage facility how is it arraged I am think like thoes car parks in japan where you drive into a spac get out an your car is then slotted into a hanger in the building i.e. you dont drive round looking for a space the garage allocates your car a rack getting more cars in one place etc.So using robots at the other end mean more efficent use of space as the stoae loackers become contianers stacked with no direct human access.
Kermit power said:
Sure, low-skilled repetitive labour has already largely gone the way of automation in developed economies, but what we're looking at next is the demise of the middle class, skilled white collar worker.
If only someone had predicted that."The lower strata of the middle class...all these sink gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialised skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production. Thus the proletariat is recruited from all classes of the population."
Marx.
Time for the middle class to stop thinking they are different to any other workers.
Fittster said:
If only someone had predicted that.
"The lower strata of the middle class...all these sink gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialised skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production. Thus the proletariat is recruited from all classes of the population."
Marx.
Time for the middle class to stop thinking they are different to any other workers.
I think Tony Blair neatly addressed this issue when he created the Classless society and lifted everyone into the middle class... That is what he did, right?"The lower strata of the middle class...all these sink gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialised skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production. Thus the proletariat is recruited from all classes of the population."
Marx.
Time for the middle class to stop thinking they are different to any other workers.
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