Possible repeat of 2007/8 banking crisis

Possible repeat of 2007/8 banking crisis

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Discussion

red_slr

Original Poster:

17,122 posts

188 months

Thursday 20th October 2016
quotequote all
Just reading an article (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard) that suggests US economic data is following trends from the last major recession and also very similar from the recession in the 90s.

Talk of big problems in the middle of next year.

Sounds worrying...

basherX

2,464 posts

160 months

Thursday 20th October 2016
quotequote all
AEP, entertaining read, usually quotes interesting data and has successfully called 250 of the last 1 crises.....


Simpo Two

85,148 posts

264 months

Thursday 20th October 2016
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BUT sentiment is a powerful thing and markets can rise and fall very quickly on what are essentially no more than whims, or at least statements from various financial high-ups (which exlcudes Carney, haha)

red_slr

Original Poster:

17,122 posts

188 months

Thursday 20th October 2016
quotequote all
Indeed.

jeff m2

2,060 posts

150 months

Sunday 23rd October 2016
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Today it is going to rain....
I'm going to be right eventually.

The banks have had to make a lot of changes like insulating some activities from others and passing a series of stress tests.
So while ideal conditions may not prevail, we are better prepared (maybe)

Sometimes irresponsible policies by the executive part of Government can cause banking problems that may not materialise for five years or so.
I've never heard a President or Prime Minister say "Sorry chaps we fked up big time". We should never have loosened up lending to the extent that we made possible. We never envisioned it would cause an increase in asset values.
They just tax all the paper gains and blame the foreclosures on the banks who had to compete with each other for business in the marketplace that they created.

Individual banks do not make policy.

Aquarius909

99 posts

164 months

Sunday 23rd October 2016
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There is no question in my mind that we are building up to another (possibly bigger) crisis. The only question is when - but, yeah, I get it, that's the important bit.

My sense though is it's sooner than people would like to admit.

Shoegrip

399 posts

90 months

Sunday 23rd October 2016
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Aquarius909 said:
There is no question in my mind that we are building up to another (possibly bigger) crisis. The only question is when - but, yeah, I get it, that's the important bit.

My sense though is it's sooner than people would like to admit.
What are you basing this on?

I agree with you but would be interested in your thinking.




Terminator X

14,921 posts

203 months

Monday 24th October 2016
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Banks don't seem to lend anymore so doubt it may "repeat" 2008 if indeed it ever happens *seeks crystal ball*

TX.

red_slr

Original Poster:

17,122 posts

188 months

Monday 24th October 2016
quotequote all

Phooey

12,574 posts

168 months

XMT

3,779 posts

146 months

Monday 24th October 2016
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red_slr said:
Silly question: with the added focus now on the US economy and it not looking as rosey as some thought it to be say even 6 months ago would it help the GBP to USD exchange rate go back to what it used to be or closer back to 1.5 etc

I say that on the basis that of course GBP took a pounding (no pun intended) due to issues in our country but a lack of issues highlighted in the USA (showing it to be more stable) - with attention now on the US economy and its holes in it will it help move it back?


Ozzie Osmond

21,189 posts

245 months

Monday 24th October 2016
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After the US election is over the dollar may strengthen regardless of who wins and the Fed is widely expected to increase rates in December. IMO this means an even worse £:$ exchange rate because BoE doesn't seem to have any scope to increase rates. St Theresa wants them to keep printing money anyway. Add a bit of inflation for good measure... Despite the current euphoria UK may well find stormy weather ahead.

Bloomberg is saying banks are in a pretty good position right now. They should be. They've "rebuilt their balance sheets" at taxpayer expense.

Foliage

3,861 posts

121 months

Monday 24th October 2016
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yep its coming, due to china's banks lending to farmers.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Monday 24th October 2016
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All you want is long term profitable growth.

Chasing revenue / may leave some with no pants on when the tide goes out.


Banks are not making profits anymore that's the issue