It's looking grim again. Is gold the would-be saviour?
Discussion
DonkeyApple said:
Vampire squid doesn't like gold anymore: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/gold-s-cy...
Well, maybe the world's finally realising to do the opposite of what GS says. Gold's broken through 1600 nicely...AdvocatusD said:
DonkeyApple said:
Vampire squid doesn't like gold anymore: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/gold-s-cy...
Well, maybe the world's finally realising to do the opposite of what GS says. Gold's broken through 1600 nicely...If money hasn't flowed into gold then it really would have been a terminal sign that a massive sell off was on the cards.
But it's important to note that portfolios have currently stopped upping their weightings and many are now clearly reducing. Economic turmoil will always trump the impact of portfolio shifts in the short term.
Giving it back post Bernacke's ramblings and equity markets stabilising from an Asian rally.
The key here is that the book has clearly changed. It is a market that is now moving in sync with its historic relationships.
In other words, we have rationality in this market for the first time in a long time. Different dynamics mean different price action going forward.
The key here is that the book has clearly changed. It is a market that is now moving in sync with its historic relationships.
In other words, we have rationality in this market for the first time in a long time. Different dynamics mean different price action going forward.
DonkeyApple said:
Vampire squid doesn't like gold anymore: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/gold-s-cy...
But generally they 'like' gold-leveraged products - helps to offset the obvious effects of GS-sponsored money-printing.Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
Vampire squid doesn't like gold anymore: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/gold-s-cy...
But generally they 'like' gold-leveraged products - helps to offset the obvious effects of GS-sponsored money-printing.The key indicator that as an asset the froth is off for the time being is that one of the largest economies in the EU, which is the largest economy on the planet, has no government yet and global equity exchanges have rallied back and gold has sold back down.
The party isn't over but the guests and tone has changed.
DonkeyApple said:
The key indicator that as an asset the froth is off for the time being is that one of the largest economies in the EU, which is the largest economy on the planet, has no government yet and global equity exchanges have rallied back and gold has sold back down.
Ah, yes Europe...I have very divided opinions; European co-operation and trade, lovely, admirable, smashing, wish it every success. Unelected bureaucracy, unsustainable budgets, theft from millions of hard working members, enforced poverty for millions of poorer members, not good and not sustainable, never is.
Even a comical Italy and the EU mess rearing up again isn't stopping the flows into the equity markets. Cashing out of ETFs continues apace as part of this portfolio re-allocation.
Until this somewhat disturbing equity rally runs out of exuberance and negative news gains the strength to knock it then AU isn't looking like it is going north in any meaningful way.
140 tonnes dumped via ETFs since Jan 1. The heard is moving.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/01db6e98-866b-11e2-b907-...
The legal nature of ETFs which make them so lovely for facilitating bubbles is also going to start ringing alarm bells as people appreciate they also can blow a commodity market apart.
Until this somewhat disturbing equity rally runs out of exuberance and negative news gains the strength to knock it then AU isn't looking like it is going north in any meaningful way.
140 tonnes dumped via ETFs since Jan 1. The heard is moving.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/01db6e98-866b-11e2-b907-...
The legal nature of ETFs which make them so lovely for facilitating bubbles is also going to start ringing alarm bells as people appreciate they also can blow a commodity market apart.
AdvocatusD said:
It's just spiked up 15 dollars and I'm on it! Buy low and....! 
Yup. It's been responding really well to economic data and the equity markets for the last few weeks. Every bit of -ve and you can see the vols rise on gold before falling back when the equity market doesn't sell off. Near perfect hedge at present. It's been desperate to get back over 1600. I'm little surprised that it hasn't done it this morning on the shift in sentiment but if the US sells off today and gets some downward traction then gold should run strongly.Wish I had the sort of understanding of the markets you appear to!
I'm very simplistic.
(All arguably) Recession bad. Growth bad. Debt very bad. Gold responds to basic economic fear. Gold good!
All good things come to and end though. Hope I have the sense to pull out before it goes...
I feel there's 2000 per ounce in the market yet, if only fleetingly.
I'm very simplistic.
(All arguably) Recession bad. Growth bad. Debt very bad. Gold responds to basic economic fear. Gold good!
All good things come to and end though. Hope I have the sense to pull out before it goes...
I feel there's 2000 per ounce in the market yet, if only fleetingly.
AdvocatusD said:
Wish I had the sort of understanding of the markets you appear to!
I'm very simplistic.
(All arguably) Recession bad. Growth bad. Debt very bad. Gold responds to basic economic fear. Gold good!
All good things come to and end though. Hope I have the sense to pull out before it goes...
I feel there's 2000 per ounce in the market yet, if only fleetingly.
If you work on the belief that everything is correlated and from time to time these correllations pull perfectly into line it allows you to see certain trends. The best place to look is in markets where traditional correllations have fallen away as historically, they will always come back into line. It's easier than looking for the break, which is what most people seem to do.I'm very simplistic.
(All arguably) Recession bad. Growth bad. Debt very bad. Gold responds to basic economic fear. Gold good!
All good things come to and end though. Hope I have the sense to pull out before it goes...
I feel there's 2000 per ounce in the market yet, if only fleetingly.
In the case of gold it's been its own little world for the a long time being driven by not just sensible reason but also fear and dumb money.
When you have another dumb event which should traditionally be linked, such as a sudden appearence of a strong rally in equities then it highlights that something is changing. It doesn't mean, per se, that the reasoning at the root is changing but that sentiment, or money flow, is changing.
The key with gold is that it yields nothing and has absolutely no real value other than to distract the eye from ugly women. As such, as soon as other asset classes that do have a yield start to rally it will be dumped like a bint with the pox..
Personally, I think the funny money is coming off the table, the easy money is gone and we are settling back to a more sensible market. 2000 is still achievable but will be determined by more logicasl reasoning rather than MoneyWeek telling scared old white people that everyone is about to die unless they line their under stairs cupboard with gold.
Mr Viking said:
no. gold is just another investment, albeit a shiny one
Not really. Investments typically have a yield. Gold is a tool for making ugly girls attractive for 95% of the time and occasionally a tool to hedge against inflation. It's not an investment any more than a Bacardi Breezer is for trying to get the old chap wet. AdvocatusD said:
Wish I had the sort of understanding of the markets you appear to!
The final two words in your sentence are often worthy of close scrutiny!Why are equity markets rising? IMO it's the realisation that,
- Many companies are much better run than (a) governments, (b) banks, and (c) one-horse retailers.
- Inflation is here to stay, due not least to the massive printing of money (Quantitative Easing).
hornet said:
Mentioned it over on another thread, but platinum seems to be popping us as an alternative to gold in the usual podcast and blog circles, although with nothing like the hysteria. No "platinum bugs" as of yet. Trading at about the same level as gold currently, but also has industrial uses, so not just a hoarding asset. Given the improving state of the US car industry and vehicle demand in China, I wonder if we're seeing money switching out of gold and into platinum?
I think there is money coming out of all metal commods at present. Some because of a reallocation to yielding investments which are indicating better returns and others because of ongoing concerns over Chinese growth which can't really continue if their two main clients (America and the even larger Europe) haven't the money to buy the goods. We've also just seen the SFO make arrests in one Rare Earth Metals sales scheme and just like OTC FX brokers, many of these operators exist to just give off the client deposits to offshore accounts, so there will be more ponzis revealed. In my eyes the strange, blanket CypSec fines of $50k per firm for not really looking into them is an indicator that they know there are noteable issues amongst their clients of one form or another.
Western equity markets hitting 5 year highs is a little unnerving but these markets always run 6-12 months ahead of other turnaround clues and there are other hints that we turned the corner in Q3/Q4 2012.
Certainly the trend is with equities and out of many commods for the moment but the spectre of rampant QE driven inflation will appear at some point.
Just imagine where XAU would be without POMO...if you stripped out HFT (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-12/when-hft-steals-liquidity-exploratory-trading-emini) and let the markets settle where they should be naturally (public / insto buying / selling) XAU should certainly perform better. But then again that's like saying I wished I'd filled up when diesel was £1.36 4 days ago...irrelevant..the market is what it is. Whether you agree with it or not is immaterial. The market is always correct and the market is buying equities....not gold...don't do it ! For every day you are out of BAT you are losing a nice dividend yield as well..
Just got emailed this by a mate: http://goldsilver.com/buy-online/Valcambi-Gold-Com...
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