It's looking grim again. Is gold the would-be saviour?
Discussion
cheddar said:
BlackLabel said:
It's been hovering around that price for the last year and a half.
It won't last, great time to buy.
cheddar said:
Because the underlying financial sticking plasters that are shoring up the manufactured low interest rates and fake buoyant economies will come unstuck.
Trouble is that sounds like a MoneyWeek advertorial to sell something of no value to a frightened pensioner. Edited by cheddar on Saturday 7th March 23:58
The big overriders are that China is still growing, albeit it at a falling rate so no real pressure from that angle yet but more importantly the US is getting ever closer to raising rates. The big point there is that USD is both the global currency and also the pricing mechanism for gold so you have a double whammy, firstly the value of gold will fall against the USD as the USD will be strengthening as its yield or promise of yield increases. Secondly, why would you continue to hold an asset with a weakening demand side and a negative yield versus it's pricing partner which has a positive yield and increasing demand side?
We can argue that money printing in the EU can be a driver to gold but a lot of the EU cash that would have flown to gold as a deflationary hedge has been laundered into the global prime property market and not Swiss banks over the last decade instead.
Personally, I still hold the view that it will take the materialisation of real problems from China to reverse the static or downward trend of gold. Band that in the medium term the world is going to be driven by the single major economic event of the yield increase in USD. This is going to start governing equities, bonds and gold by the looks of things going forward.
The simple fact is that no one would want to be holding gold in a rising USD enviroment so we are going to be seeing a big asset switch one US rate hikes get under way.
Richyboy said:
Talk of greece issuing a parallel currency to the euro, whats that going to do to gold etc?
Nothing. The amount of gold on the planet somewhat dwarfs the number of Drachma a tinpot ex military dictatorship in the Med can print and piss away. It's all about the US and China and what happens in those economies and as commods just sold off on the back of lack of Chinese demand, adding to a very clear slowdown and decamping of commods since 2012 then I'd say at the moment it is all about China. Interesting posts DA.
Like your posts. Very informative thanks!
Have you had dealings in ForEx yourself as I have some friends who lost money in an overseas based trading company last year. I'm sure you know who it was!
I'm wondering if you have heard of anyone getting their money back. More interestingly there's been talk of a "collective" ,presumably investors, suing the European bank who facilitated the fraud. (They issued credit cards)
Like your posts. Very informative thanks!
Have you had dealings in ForEx yourself as I have some friends who lost money in an overseas based trading company last year. I'm sure you know who it was!
I'm wondering if you have heard of anyone getting their money back. More interestingly there's been talk of a "collective" ,presumably investors, suing the European bank who facilitated the fraud. (They issued credit cards)
To be honest, quite a few overseas fx spank shops have folded recently and there are more to go.
Lord knows why anyone in the UK ever sends money overseas to them. They are Ponzis where client cash instantly goes out via 'hedging' to the offshore 'clearer'. And on top of that the fills are terrible as the object is to slip the client to zero as rapidly as possible.
Chances of getting anything back are zero as the money has gone the instant it arrives.
Lord knows why anyone in the UK ever sends money overseas to them. They are Ponzis where client cash instantly goes out via 'hedging' to the offshore 'clearer'. And on top of that the fills are terrible as the object is to slip the client to zero as rapidly as possible.
Chances of getting anything back are zero as the money has gone the instant it arrives.
I did tell them but they were sucked in my 40% returns!
I doubt there's any hope of getting the money back from the fund which is why they are suing the bank, for complicit in the fraud. I don't believe they didn't know what was going on, due to the way the fund was structured and the bank involvement in the day to day running of funds in and out of the bank.
Hey. I'm not expert.
I doubt there's any hope of getting the money back from the fund which is why they are suing the bank, for complicit in the fraud. I don't believe they didn't know what was going on, due to the way the fund was structured and the bank involvement in the day to day running of funds in and out of the bank.
Hey. I'm not expert.
iambeowulf said:
I did tell them but they were sucked in my 40% returns!
I doubt there's any hope of getting the money back from the fund which is why they are suing the bank, for complicit in the fraud. I don't believe they didn't know what was going on, due to the way the fund was structured and the bank involvement in the day to day running of funds in and out of the bank.
Hey. I'm not expert.
40% returns makes it a clear scam. Money will have gone within seconds of it arriving. And there is zero recourse which is why the people who ran that scam will already be up and running with the next. I doubt there's any hope of getting the money back from the fund which is why they are suing the bank, for complicit in the fraud. I don't believe they didn't know what was going on, due to the way the fund was structured and the bank involvement in the day to day running of funds in and out of the bank.
Hey. I'm not expert.
Lots of people have also bought gold that doesn't exist. Unregulated market always attracts the specialist teams that sell things that never existed.
DonkeyApple said:
Trouble is that sounds like a MoneyWeek advertorial to sell something of no value to a frightened pensioner.
The big overriders are that China is still growing, albeit it at a falling rate so no real pressure from that angle yet but more importantly the US is getting ever closer to raising rates. The big point there is that USD is both the global currency and also the pricing mechanism for gold so you have a double whammy, firstly the value of gold will fall against the USD as the USD will be strengthening as its yield or promise of yield increases. Secondly, why would you continue to hold an asset with a weakening demand side and a negative yield versus it's pricing partner which has a positive yield and increasing demand side?
We can argue that money printing in the EU can be a driver to gold but a lot of the EU cash that would have flown to gold as a deflationary hedge has been laundered into the global prime property market and not Swiss banks over the last decade instead.
Personally, I still hold the view that it will take the materialisation of real problems from China to reverse the static or downward trend of gold. Band that in the medium term the world is going to be driven by the single major economic event of the yield increase in USD. This is going to start governing equities, bonds and gold by the looks of things going forward.
The simple fact is that no one would want to be holding gold in a rising USD enviroment so we are going to be seeing a big asset switch one US rate hikes get under way.
Well worth a read:The big overriders are that China is still growing, albeit it at a falling rate so no real pressure from that angle yet but more importantly the US is getting ever closer to raising rates. The big point there is that USD is both the global currency and also the pricing mechanism for gold so you have a double whammy, firstly the value of gold will fall against the USD as the USD will be strengthening as its yield or promise of yield increases. Secondly, why would you continue to hold an asset with a weakening demand side and a negative yield versus it's pricing partner which has a positive yield and increasing demand side?
We can argue that money printing in the EU can be a driver to gold but a lot of the EU cash that would have flown to gold as a deflationary hedge has been laundered into the global prime property market and not Swiss banks over the last decade instead.
Personally, I still hold the view that it will take the materialisation of real problems from China to reverse the static or downward trend of gold. Band that in the medium term the world is going to be driven by the single major economic event of the yield increase in USD. This is going to start governing equities, bonds and gold by the looks of things going forward.
The simple fact is that no one would want to be holding gold in a rising USD enviroment so we are going to be seeing a big asset switch one US rate hikes get under way.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11625...
http://www.breakingnews.com/topic/eurozone-crisis/
So now talk of greece imposing a levy on ATM withdrawals to encourage people to use credit cards. Surely the warning signs are there for people to get their money out of euros and into something physical.
So now talk of greece imposing a levy on ATM withdrawals to encourage people to use credit cards. Surely the warning signs are there for people to get their money out of euros and into something physical.
Richyboy said:
http://www.breakingnews.com/topic/eurozone-crisis/
Surely the warning signs are there for people to get their money out of euros...
What money?Surely the warning signs are there for people to get their money out of euros...
Gold. Lets see. A fairly useful metal from an engineering point of view, but nothing exceptional. But, 1000's of people, and £Billions are spent digging it out of a hole in the ground, refining it into little bricks, and er, putting back in a hole in the ground. Called a bank. And then making it 'valueable' ? Suppose the same could be said for shiny lumps of carbon as well. Diamonds. Crazy world.
robinessex said:
Gold. Lets see. A fairly useful metal from an engineering point of view, but nothing exceptional. But, 1000's of people, and £Billions are spent digging it out of a hole in the ground, refining it into little bricks, and er, putting back in a hole in the ground. Called a bank. And then making it 'valueable' ? Suppose the same could be said for shiny lumps of carbon as well. Diamonds. Crazy world.
I suppose eventually we would agree on something. Gold is an almost textbook example of the greater fool theory.(ps its not really 'banks' who have all the gold, its mostly governments, except yours, because Brown gave it all away for a pack of pork scratchings)
Richyboy said:
http://www.breakingnews.com/topic/eurozone-crisis/
So now talk of greece imposing a levy on ATM withdrawals to encourage people to use credit cards. Surely the warning signs are there for people to get their money out of euros and into something physical.
The few hundred people in Greece with actual wealth already hold their assets outside of Greece and always have done. So now talk of greece imposing a levy on ATM withdrawals to encourage people to use credit cards. Surely the warning signs are there for people to get their money out of euros and into something physical.
No one pays tax because most wealth is earned via offshore entities and remains there.
Everyone else in Greece apart from the poorest has negative wealth because of a decade of crazy over spending and debt accumulation as assets have been inflated and savings plummeted.
So, in short, a few Greeks, with no money, trying to buy bits of metal without any ability to buy in exchange or online but only through local, expensive dealers isn't going to impact the value of gold.
Gold was massively overbought by small retail via structured products and is still unwinding as retail demand has gone. The risk is that a very large premium currently remains and only because all eyes are on China and whether their economic decline triggers a dollar crisis as they sell hard and thus create a demand increase for assets like gold. Other than that, once the USD starts yielding then there will be no interest in any central bank adding to their gold reserves but quite a few might want to sell.
Edited by DonkeyApple on Wednesday 27th May 09:36
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