It's looking grim again. Is gold the would-be saviour?
Discussion
fido said:
Oil is a better bet - just waiting to see how long the Saudis are willing to sell the stuff at a loss!
Oil is a gift trade in waiting. No upside in pre empting sentiment but when it does change it will run over 100 again. But China growth is again the big issue. While it is declining there is little reason for oil to enter a strong bull run.
Well, it's at 5 year lows now and that isn't even accounting for the massive devaluation of its pricing currency through QE.
And now rate rises for the West are clearly on the cards and China rumoured to be a seller of gold to support its domestic market there is less hope of strong positive price action now than back at the beginning of this thread.
And now rate rises for the West are clearly on the cards and China rumoured to be a seller of gold to support its domestic market there is less hope of strong positive price action now than back at the beginning of this thread.
DJRC said:
So basically DA, you mean "No". 
Well, it's been the savour of a couple of Weybridge scammers, an army of Russian and Eastern European gangsters and a bunch of Panamanian bankers. 
But anyone who lost out can now buy a binary betting robot and send whatever cash they've got left to Panama.
Gold hits a 5 year low and has retreated for the 10th consecutive day - that's the longest run of losses since 1996 apparently. Sub $1000 can't be far away.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/117...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/go...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/117...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/go...
DonkeyApple said:
China rumoured to be a seller of gold to support its domestic market there is less hope of strong positive price action now than back at the beginning of this thread.
The rumours of China having 'secretly' bought a fair bit of the stuff are likely correct and, given the current situation out there, I'd agree it is certainly possible they're dumping the stuff right now.A lot of the selling is not in physical stuff though.
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
China rumoured to be a seller of gold to support its domestic market there is less hope of strong positive price action now than back at the beginning of this thread.
The rumours of China having 'secretly' bought a fair bit of the stuff are likely correct and, given the current situation out there, I'd agree it is certainly possible they're dumping the stuff right now.A lot of the selling is not in physical stuff though.
Chinese and EU QE is likely to create demand for USD as it is now a strengthening currency and with a growing yield instead of gold.
The reality is that all the retail rampers have long sinced moved into the next scam. The institutions have moved onto the next structured product and there is no real reason for any Government to be buying.
It's wuie easy to see gold back under $500 as the USD strengthens on rate rises over the coming years.
DonkeyApple said:
Chinese and EU QE is likely to create demand for USD as it is now a strengthening currency and with a growing yield instead of gold.
But how long can the USD remain in that position, given the state of their finances and economy? I realise the answer to that might be "quite some time", but surely, at some point (and this is borne out in history) the currency may begin to lose appeal as the default international 'safe' currency? How many people does it take to call the Emperor's new clothes before everyone else realises?Digga said:
ut how long can the USD remain in that position, given the state of their finances and economy? I realise the answer to that might be "quite some time", but surely, at some point (and this is borne out in history) the currency may begin to lose appeal as the default international 'safe' currency? How many people does it take to call the Emperor's new clothes before everyone else realises?
It's all relative. The USD simply has to be less f
ked that the other global currencies to remain number one. It will always be the default illegal currency despite the EU trying to take that by producing a E500 note to aid massive, illegal cash transactions and despite digital currencies which no one will ever truly trust enough to replace real cash. And as USD is about to start yielding then lots of money that has been pouring into non yielding, growth assets is going to be diverted back towards USD and then also GBP as that starts yielding again. It's not just gold that could see demand shrink and supply grow. Prime global metropolis property could well be effected. And interestingly, so will Classic cars. Most debt structures for classic cars are valued in USD. There will come a point when people will stop using leverage for securing the capital growth and then there will come a point when a few structures start defaulting.
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
The USD simply has to be less fked that the other global currencies to remain number one.
There is certainly no replacement on the horizon; the Russian-Chinese petrodollar currency is not a safe bet. No exporter seriously wants sterling to become default reserve. ked that the other global currencies to remain number one.You wouldn't want to be earning in a devaluing currency when many of your costs are in an appreciating one. Financing dollar debt is going to become quite expensive for many. And that is usually a catalyst for converting pointless gold into valuable USD.
Things don't look good:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11805523/Doomsd...
" 7 - Bull market third longest on record
The UK stock market is in its 77th month of a bull market, which began in March 2009. On only two other occasions in history has the market risen for longer. One is in the lead-up to the Great Crash in 1929 and the other before the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the early 2000s.
8 - Overvalued US market
In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio – or Shiller CAPE – for the S&P 500 stands at 27.2, some 64pc above its historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher – in 1929, 2000 and 2007. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11805523/Doomsd...
" 7 - Bull market third longest on record
The UK stock market is in its 77th month of a bull market, which began in March 2009. On only two other occasions in history has the market risen for longer. One is in the lead-up to the Great Crash in 1929 and the other before the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the early 2000s.
8 - Overvalued US market
In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio – or Shiller CAPE – for the S&P 500 stands at 27.2, some 64pc above its historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher – in 1929, 2000 and 2007. "
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