More Argie Bargie

[Mark.H]

sorry

[Dr Banjo]

Mark.H said:

sorry

No not at all.

There is some good stuff in there regarding the surprise attack and how British forces could respond, but be warned some of it may contain nuts

[honest_delboy]

Ordinary_Chap said:

Its obvious they are seeking to take the company for their needs and are not going to follow international law or pay a fair rate.

As late as March the Argentine energy minister stated investment from YPF back into the country was meeting the required standards they had defined in the contracts.

Argentina's problems stem from the fact they have forced YPF to keep the cost per barrel at a incredibly low rate (about $40) which means re-investment in Argentina has been kept to what was agreed in the contracts since profit wasn't abundant.

And then the inevitable started happening, investment was kept at the required levels which didn't meet Argentina's growing economy and they had to start importing energy at the usual global rates as opposed to their incredibly low rates for internal production.

Edited by Ordinary_Chap on Wednesday 18th April 20:39

So Repsol (that owns the controlling stake in YPF) can't see much profit in Argentina so do their expensive drilling/explo in other areas of their portfolio. Argentine are unhappy with this, there is loads of oil there, "please get it out of the ground quicker so we don't have to pay for expensive imports" Repsol - "We can't because theres no money it for us" Argies -"Fine we'll do it ourselves by nationalising you"

Is this right ?

[ralphrj]

Mark.H said:

I don't think the UK Government (not the armed forces)has the stomach for the fight
again. They'd probably petition to the UN and send angry E-Mails.

I don't really understand this view.

If the Argentines ever managed to capture the Falkland Islands again (highly unlikely) then whoever is in government has 2 options:

1. recapture
2. give them up.

Option 2 is electoral suicide whereas option 1 can either be electoral suicide (if you fail) or guarantee you a landslide election win (if you succeed).

I doubt very much that any politician is going to just shrug his shoulders and say "whatever".

[Dr Banjo]

honest_delboy said:

So Repsol (that owns the controlling stake in YPF) can't see much profit in Argentina so do their expensive drilling/explo in other areas of their portfolio. Argentine are unhappy with this, there is loads of oil there, "please get it out of the ground quicker so we don't have to pay for expensive imports" Repsol - "We can't because theres no money it for us" Argies -"Fine we'll do it ourselves by nationalising you"

Is this right ?

Pretty much.

Its ok for foreign companies to drill for oil as long as they dont make any money.

She is totally insane. The country is going down the toilet fast. She can only whip up the rhetoric for so long before the people see her for what she is.

Thats my hope anyway.

[Ordinary_Chap]

Dr Banjo said:

honest_delboy said:

So Repsol (that owns the controlling stake in YPF) can't see much profit in Argentina so do their expensive drilling/explo in other areas of their portfolio. Argentine are unhappy with this, there is loads of oil there, "please get it out of the ground quicker so we don't have to pay for expensive imports" Repsol - "We can't because theres no money it for us" Argies -"Fine we'll do it ourselves by nationalising you"

Is this right ?

Pretty much.

Its ok for foreign companies to drill for oil as long as they dont make any money.

She is totally insane. The country is going down the toilet fast. She can only whip up the rhetoric for so long before the people see her for for what she is.

It keeps getting more and more silly by the second.

They have about 30bn left and YPF are worth over 15bn (they were in the process of selling to China for that), however Respol say they would accept 10bn.

The economy minister is claiming they can't pay that price as they need to pay for environmental damage (which doesn't exist) and other debts the company has.

Respol are so comfortable with their case and have said they are taking this to the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), however Argentina has previously ignored rulings by ICSID so I don't think this will achieve much.

Essentially Argentina is going to pay a lot less than YPF if current events are anything to go by.

And incidentally Argentina has also decided to also nationalise the YPF natural gas branch which is a separate company and not related to their original argument as to why they needed to nationalise YPF.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/04/19/senate-leader-...

[Saddle bum]

Dr Banjo said:

[sni[]

She is totally insane.

[snip]

She is also butt-ugly.

[2fast748]

Views from another source re: Argentina's financial position:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica...

[Dr Banjo]

2fast748 said:

Views from another source re: Argentina's financial position:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica...

I didnt think it was possible to put a positive spin on this..

[muffinmenace]

2fast748 said:

Views from another source re: Argentina's financial position:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica...

the guardian

Wrong about everything. All the time.

[hidetheelephants]

Mark.H said:

I don't think they'd have much trouble getting feet on the Islands again, and unlike Thatcher, I don't think the UK Government (not the armed forces)has the stomach for the fight again. They'd probably petition to the UN and send angry E-Mails.

Back in December hidetheelephants said:

Falklands defence vote 1982: 60 RM bootys with rifles, gimpys, grenades and a dose of bulldog spirit, FIDF armed with not very much, an unsurfaced airfield only just big enough for a C130, and no naval presence at all.

Falklands defence vote 2012: an augmented battalion with engineer and artillery attachments, radar equipped rapier sections, FIDF with light recon equipment, Mount Pleasant Airfield; a fortified airfield suitable for fast jets, 4 Typhoons with a VC10 tanker, a C130 and 3 SAR choppers, the T23 frigate HMS Montrose, possibly a sleek black bringer of death but as usual it's a secret, and the FI standing patrol ship HMS Clyde.

The Argies aren't getting in without a bloody fight, and it's a fight I believe they would lose.

As for the Argentine Airforce pulling a fast one I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that Biggles spends a lot of his time on attachment in the FI practicing for just such a scenario.

[Mark.H]

All impotent if the ROE doesn't allow engagement first.

[Ayahuasca]

HMS Montrose isn't there anymore, she was in Panama last week.

[Puggit]

Ayahuasca said:

HMS Montrose isn't there anymore, she was in Panama last week.

Dauntless set sail a few weeks back, so is now presumably on station

[ralphrj]

hidetheelephants said:

Mark.H said:

I don't think they'd have much trouble getting feet on the Islands again, and unlike Thatcher, I don't think the UK Government (not the armed forces)has the stomach for the fight again. They'd probably petition to the UN and send angry E-Mails.

Back in December hidetheelephants said:

Falklands defence vote 1982: 60 RM bootys with rifles, gimpys, grenades and a dose of bulldog spirit, FIDF armed with not very much, an unsurfaced airfield only just big enough for a C130, and no naval presence at all.

Falklands defence vote 2012: an augmented battalion with engineer and artillery attachments, radar equipped rapier sections, FIDF with light recon equipment, Mount Pleasant Airfield; a fortified airfield suitable for fast jets, 4 Typhoons with a VC10 tanker, a C130 and 3 SAR choppers, the T23 frigate HMS Montrose, possibly a sleek black bringer of death but as usual it's a secret, and the FI standing patrol ship HMS Clyde.

The Argies aren't getting in without a bloody fight, and it's a fight I believe they would lose.

As for the Argentine Airforce pulling a fast one I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that Biggles spends a lot of his time on attachment in the FI practicing for just such a scenario.

Exactly.

Also, for all the talk of Argentine special forces launching a surprise attack from a commercial airliner landing at Mount Pleasant "in an emergency" I expect this is a well rehearsed scenario.

In addition to all the stuff mentioned above I can recall a TV program circa 10 years ago (google suggests it was "Jim Davidson Falklands Bound") which briefly showed a remote military radar station used to monitor Argentina. From memory I thought it was somewhere on West Falkland as opposed to Mount Pleasant on East Falkland. The filming of the station was restricted as some of the equipment installed was still secret but it was implied that the station can not only monitor any approaching traffic and alert MPA but also eavesdrop on mainland Argentine communications.

[Ayahuasca]

Puggit said:

Ayahuasca said:

HMS Montrose isn't there anymore, she was in Panama last week.

Dauntless set sail a few weeks back, so is now presumably on station

Dauntless sailed 15 days ago, which suggests that there was no RN surface ship there at all for some time.

[Mark.H]

Step 1
Send in a naval military force to surround the islands just a couple of miles off shore, forcing the defending force to spread themself thin, ROE would prevent engagement until a first agressive act was witnessed

Step 2
Draw out Eurofighters with a big enough wing of Argie aircraft to force the RAF into launching their jets, loiter on station and waste EF fuel, (repeat waves until EF are forced to return & refuel)...send in a real package and bomb the crap out of the runway and defences which would be overwhealmed, simultaneously landing naval forces leaving relatively small defensive force outgunned and out numbered

Step 3
Round up local inhabitants and deport to Argentina Mainland for processing back to the UK

Step 4
Repair Runway, move Argentinian military in along with hastily assembled Argentinian public new inhabitants (human shields)

Step 5
Wait to see how big the UK's cajones are.


...or am I talking bks? haha

[Dr Banjo]

Mark.H said:

Step 1
Send in a naval military force to surround the islands just a couple of miles off shore, forcing the defending force to spread themself thin, ROE would prevent engagement until a first agressive act was witnessed

Step 2
Draw out Eurofighters with a big enough wing of Argie aircraft to force the RAF into launching their jets, loiter on station and waste EF fuel, (repeat waves until EF are forced to return & refuel)...send in a real package and bomb the crap out of the runway and defences which would be overwhealmed, simultaneously landing naval forces leaving relatively small defensive force outgunned and out numbered

Step 3
Round up local inhabitants and deport to Argentina Mainland for processing back to the UK

Step 4
Repair Runway, move Argentinian military in along with hastily assembled Argentinian public new inhabitants (human shields)

Step 5
Wait to see how big the UK's cajones are.


...or am I talking bks? haha

[MartG]

Mark.H said:

Step 1
Send in a naval military force to surround the islands just a couple of miles off shore, forcing the defending force to spread themself thin, ROE would prevent engagement until a first agressive act was witnessed

I suspect that if any Argentine Navy ship entered the 12 mile ( or whatever ) territorial limit around the FI without authorisation from UK Government then it would be seen as an act of war. You'd need a lot of ships to circle the Islands 12 miles out

[Ayahuasca]

MartG said:

Mark.H said:

Step 1
Send in a naval military force to surround the islands just a couple of miles off shore, forcing the defending force to spread themself thin, ROE would prevent engagement until a first agressive act was witnessed

I suspect that if any Argentine Navy ship entered the 12 mile ( or whatever ) territorial limit around the FI without authorisation from UK Government then it would be seen as an act of war. You'd need a lot of ships to circle the Islands 12 miles out

12 miles is bullst. Treat the FI like a carrier:


What's their range?
200 miles?
If they break 150 miles launch the Alert Five aircraft.