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Author Discussion

Steffan

8,898 posts

111 months

[news] 
Thursday 3rd May 2012 quote quote all
1point7bar said:
WhoseGeneration said:
Steffan didn't answer, you are edging towards an answer without describing the interlinking between the pertinent actors.
The means of exchange for the top ten most traded global commodities is denominated by compulsion. This hegemony accomodates, by proxy, the counterpoint to Steffan's reasoning. I am at great pains to deduce an axiomatic opinion.
I think I understand this. Upon consideration, I still think the cookie will crumble before long. For the reasons stated earlier.

Dark Helmet

186 posts

58 months

[news] 
Thursday 3rd May 2012 quote quote all
Mermaid said:
How about announcing now that benefits will be cut a certain percentage every year from now on?
I would certainly agree with this one. However I thought UB40/dole/JSA or whatever was only paid for a limited time (6 months?) and then it changed to Income Support?

WhoseGeneration

4,090 posts

90 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
1point7bar said:
The means of exchange for the top ten most traded global commodities is denominated by compulsion. This hegemony accomodates, by proxy, the counterpoint to Steffan's reasoning. I am at great pains to deduce an axiomatic opinion.
smile, I understand your view. For how much longer do you think this will apply?

davepoth

22,918 posts

82 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
Steffan said:
1point7bar said:
WhoseGeneration said:
Steffan didn't answer, you are edging towards an answer without describing the interlinking between the pertinent actors.
The means of exchange for the top ten most traded global commodities is denominated by compulsion. This hegemony accomodates, by proxy, the counterpoint to Steffan's reasoning. I am at great pains to deduce an axiomatic opinion.
I think I understand this. Upon consideration, I still think the cookie will crumble before long. For the reasons stated earlier.
I'm going to blunder in and try and be pithy. It probably won't work.

Fiat currency isn't controlled by anyone. Its value is determined by the economic health of the country, that's determined by the global market in stocks and commodities, and all of those markets are controlled by automatic trading programmes on mainframe computers somewhere around Slough.

Like the rest of the financial system, any functional diagram would end up looking rather like the artwork of M.C. Escher; try as hard as you might and you will never be able to fully resolve it, although you will likely find the "trick" quickly enough.


RichardD

3,409 posts

128 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
turbobloke said:
But then what's the difference between a HBAT and a JOBAT? Or would that be taking the PIIS?
HBAT implies something like the image below, gravity and spidery type threads suspending the unfortunate trapped "victim"...

(I'm sure Globs will appreciate the image smile)


JOBAT in the automotive analagy could imply unsustainable speed for a set of unroadworthy vehicles. For example benefitting from the slipstream of a remapped (yikes) BMW 550D, until the German driver finally (after many years!) notices in their mirror and starts to get annoyed regarding the freeloaders behind them.....
So if the German swerves they'll be in trouble and... erm.... their wheels will fall off (to keep in the "thread" theme).
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Gary11

3,876 posts

84 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
Surely we all realise the end game will be a financial disaster,they (EU/IMF)are all to aware of this,there is only A) or B) here ie stop or keep going,stop IMO isnt an option just imagine the EZ falling ....it wont happen yet not while the EU,IMF,America,China still have ink in thier presses,so anyway right when is the next bailout? and who is going to get it??

Seems to be building a head of steam now,
http://moneymorning.com/2012/05/04/the-fate-of-the...

Edited by Gary11 on Friday 4th May 12:08


Edited by Gary11 on Friday 4th May 15:52

Steffan

8,898 posts

111 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
Gary11 said:
Surely we all realise the end game will be a financial disaster,they (EU/IMF)are all to aware of this,there is only A) or B) here ie stop or keep going,stop IMO isnt an option just imagine the EZ falling ....it wont happen yet not while the EU,IMF,America,China still have ink in thier presses,so anyway right when is the next bailout? and who is going to get it??

Seems to be building a head of steam now,
http://moneymorning.com/2012/05/04/the-fate-of-the...

Edited by Gary11 on Friday 4th May 12:08


Edited by Gary11 on Friday 4th May 15:52
Good post. I do agree the pot seems to be boiling up and very possibly will overflow with the Merkozy changes that are anticipated and the Greek government changes that are widely expected.

What Gary11 is spot on about is that the end game will be a financial disaster. The real question is what form will the collapses take and what will be left of the EU and Euro.

There is a real juggernaut of political will to keep the EU and the Euro currency going. That will presumably still be driving the remaining EU structure.

IMO the question really has become what happens after the drop. I just cannot see a Political union, with this many cracks, continuing in an unchanged form.

Mermaid

16,945 posts

54 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
Steffan said:
IMO the question really has become what happens after the drop. I just cannot see a Political union, with this many cracks, continuing in an unchanged form.
Th Euro is dropping against Sterling.

Steffan

8,898 posts

111 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
Mermaid said:
Steffan said:
IMO the question really has become what happens after the drop. I just cannot see a Political union, with this many cracks, continuing in an unchanged form.
Th Euro is dropping against Sterling.
I am not flipping well surprised!!!!!!

However Sterling is none too certain and I have real doubts about the schoolboys Cameroon and Boy George having the bottle to actually get on with the job properly and bring government borrowing under control.

The vote buyers at Labour are on a high again, They could well be back in power, God Help us All, within three years. In which case the UK will be heading for the rocks at full speed.

I genuinely do not understand how Socialists honestly believe that Socialism is a realistic political system applied as the Labour Party want it. Unlimited benefits for all and no need ever to work or raise a finger in self support.

I understand the vote buying and self interest in making money personally, which clear]y motivates Blair Brown and the like. But how does anyone think the UK can spend massively more than it earns year on year and pay out Benefits at a level that makes working a mugs game? The Benefits society has to end. Inflation proof rises for the unemployed and no rises for the employed. Really? Not for long.

Apologies for the off topic rant the local election results have fired my serious concerns about the UK taking another wrong turning which might well be suicidal, given the resurgence of support for Labour. UKIP have dolloped which is also a shame and another confirmation that the electorate are fickle.

Back to the topic, given the very probable changes coming in Greece and France and possibly in Germany, I do see the collapses coming fast.

Blib

26,419 posts

80 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
So, if Hollande gets in on Sunday, he'll tear up any agreement with Merkel?

Then what does she do? Shirley, the whole edifice will begin to crumble? Starting on Monday morning.

Steffan

8,898 posts

111 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
Blib said:
So, if Hollande gets in on Sunday, he'll tear up any agreement with Merkel?

Then what does she do? Shirley, the whole edifice will begin to crumble? Starting on Monday morning.
I really do not know on this question. Hollande will presumably not seek immediate major changes he is an experienced politician. I think the real question is what will effect would this event have on confidence. It cannot be good. If the Greeks also vote out the ruling politicians I can see a really rough period for the continuance of the HBAT's in the Euro.

Hollande will be aware that France is very probably toast if all the HBAT's do default en masse as are the French Banks. If Italy goes, which I think is regrettably a possibility, although I certainly hope not, then there really will be an economic blood bath.

This has always been the danger of holding back the economic dams and trying to prevent the economic flood. When it comes, it comes deep and prediction of the outcome becomes very difficult.

Mermaid

16,945 posts

54 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
Steffan said:
..This has always been the danger of holding back the economic dams and trying to prevent the economic flood. When it comes, it comes deep and prediction of the outcome becomes very difficult.
Agreed, and a "ballon" held under water does not surface at the same point.

1point7bar

1,091 posts

31 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
Blib said:
So, if Hollande gets in on Sunday, he'll tear up any agreement with Merkel?

Then what does she do? Shirley, the whole edifice will begin to crumble? Starting on Monday morning.
Hollande is a socialist. His policies are overtax & overspend. The bond market would probably not gaze favourably upon his nationalising tendencies and for this 'crime' of private capital freedom he will blame the City. The usual suspects of Euro break up and currency devaluation would be a solution to the ensuing self-inflicted French credit constrictions.

Globs

13,131 posts

114 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
Steffan said:
I have real doubts about the schoolboys Cameroon and Boy George having the bottle to actually get on with the job properly and bring government borrowing under control.
Casually tossing the odd £10bn down the euro sink-hole suggests they have no more will to save the UK than Sarkozy.

Lets face it, the Tory power base really doesn't give a st, the LibDems are a bunch of traitorous sts and nuLabour are a crazed pack of hyenas intent on bringing the working man to his knees.

1point7bar

1,091 posts

31 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
WhoseGeneration said:
smile, I understand your view. For how much longer do you think this will apply?
Gary11 said:
while the EU,IMF,America,China still have ink in their presses
The underlying causes are, I suspect, not simply political but pathological.

A contemplation on this intangible subject would be a brain ache and most likely
somewhat O/T?

bosscerbera

8,182 posts

126 months

[news] 
Friday 4th May 2012 quote quote all
1point7bar said:
The underlying causes are, I suspect, not simply political but pathological.

A contemplation on this intangible subject would be a brain ache and most likely
somewhat O/T?
The degree of brain ache is perhaps why the subject gets dodged. It is very much on topic.

1point7bar

1,091 posts

31 months

[news] 
Saturday 5th May 2012 quote quote all
IMO yesterday's local election results demonstrate ignorance of reason by choice. This ferments divergence of ideologies and thus public policy to not be driven by logic.

bosscerbera

8,182 posts

126 months

[news] 
Saturday 5th May 2012 quote quote all
1point7bar said:
IMO yesterday's local election results demonstrate ignorance of reason by choice. This ferments divergence of ideologies and thus public policy to not be driven by logic.
Agreed.

davepoth

22,918 posts

82 months

[news] 
Saturday 5th May 2012 quote quote all
Globs said:
Casually tossing the odd £10bn down the euro sink-hole suggests they have no more will to save the UK than Sarkozy.
Nope. It's fiat currency, everyone's solvency depends on everyone else being solvent, or at least appearing to be solvent. They lent that £10bn to the IMF so that the IMF still has money to loan to people so they can pay off loans to banks so that those banks will carry on lending to other people. Those other people include the UK.

The magic of fiat currency is that we'll probably borrow money from those banks at a lower interest rate than we've lent the money to the IMF, thereby making a bit of a profit and helping to ensure liquidity of the system.

The only reason we've only lent £10bn is that any more than that would arouse suspicions. It's this kind of thinking that really helps in the situation we're in.

Apache

38,771 posts

167 months

[news] 
Saturday 5th May 2012 quote quote all
1point7bar said:
Blib said:
So, if Hollande gets in on Sunday, he'll tear up any agreement with Merkel?

Then what does she do? Shirley, the whole edifice will begin to crumble? Starting on Monday morning.
Hollande is a socialist. His policies are overtax & overspend. The bond market would probably not gaze favourably upon his nationalising tendencies and for this 'crime' of private capital freedom he will blame the City. The usual suspects of Euro break up and currency devaluation would be a solution to the ensuing self-inflicted French credit constrictions.
I was in Lyon yesterday and overheard talk of a Euro meltdown because it was felt that Hollande would get in

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