0.5% tops for the UK. May well hit 4 for the Eurozone.
Merrill are basing that on a static system model, i.e. results predicted from today on today's information. That instantly makes the model:
That of course leads us to the output which of course will be wrong.
We are not in a static system, but one that is very very dynamic. Those dynamics are highly volatile, contain numerous known Actors and even more numerous unknown Actors. There are economics to consider, politics, elections, society as State/organisation Actors and society as individual Actors and corporate entities. The amount of money involved also means the pyschology of the Actors change.
Merrill are doing a best guess figure based on known information then angled for best impact.
Good to see DJRC on the button again. I remember the accuracy and distinctive focus in his many earlier posts on here and he has been proved correct every time.
If the UK could get its political act together the opportunities for the UK to make progress with the only real players left in Europe, Germany and the Scandinavian countries is immense. There will be winners in this and the UK should be one.
No matter how badly we are affected by this impending maelstrom, Greece Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium and the other economic edge riders within the Euro will be massively more damaged and weakened. I take no pleasure in this but this IS an OPPORTUNITY for the UK.
There will be new alliances forged in the intense heat that the immense economic and financial failures will produce across Europe, Fortunes are being lost and the corollary of this is always, that fortunes are being made. The UK should be in the rising camp. If only we had decent political leaders.
Turning to the Banking question, and the complete unmitigated disaster, that the world banking system has become, whilst being totally, authorised, regulated, supervised controlled and monitored, throughout the world, it is clear to me, that a new approach is needed
The supervisory financial bodies and governments in every country have spent billions in regulating the banks. To absolutely no effect, other than hand wringing and early retirement on full pensions for all the miscreants, as each new financial disaster appears.
The Treasuries of every Sovereign state and the Central Bank of every country have all been acting to their fullest ability throughout this disaster with absolutely no positive results whatsoever.
Banks are folding like ninepins. Losses by the Billion are being racked up by JP Morgan and other whilst being totally regulated under the new financial systems introduced less than three years ago, following the 2008 world banking crisis.
The various regulators and lenders such as the World Bank, the IMF and Uncle Tom Cobley and all, who have all been in their collective grand places, at huge cost and have carefully monitored and controlled the Banking structures throughout the western world, throughout this period, whilst the many obvious irregularities have grown and prospered, within banking, as it has become today.
With the result that the entire system is completely out of control. The Taxpayer has become a convenient patsy, unrepresented, unable to receive any benefit, from the Billions wasted and yet totally responsible, for saving the financial world, from the awful consequences that this madness has wrought throughout the financial systems of the world.
This cannot go on. I really cannot believe that I am alone in thinking another form of world banking structure has to be created before this nonsense can be ended.
Bankia is Bust. Fourteen other Banks in Spain are downgraded and effectively leper lenders from this point on. Less than five years from the arrival of the biggest Banking crisis in the world caused all the Banking systems to be revised totally. Spain has not gone bust yet, but it will. The rescues of these Banks are completely pointless, because the Sovereign State itself is insolvent. The whole lot is going over.
Spain cannot afford to bail out their banks. They can print the money, with the help of the ECB, but we are back to the daft, good money after bad nonsense we have seen in Greece with the ECB.
We cannot have stable economic growth or indeed any economic growth if the taxpayers cannot rely upon the safety of their savings. This is the reality the requires addressing. Money is no longer safe in Banks because the system we are using are simply not fit for purpose.
We are at the point where the public are being warned, once again, that a British Bank, Santander may fold. Back to the £85,000, government limit etc. I fully understand that the government (Taxpayer) will save the bank but ordinary people cannot face a situation where their few savings are in a Bank that may fold every other week. This was headline news yesterday. Less than five years after the last lot.
This is becoming seriously unacceptable. We are simply losing control of the economic fundamentals in all of this. Ordinary people deserve much better than politics in 2012 is producing.
What shall we do now? I await the suggestions with real interest.