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DoubleSix
2,521 posts
45 months
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I will never forgive that twitchy eyed t  t for selling off our gold at pitiful prices AGAINST THE ADVICE OF THE TREASURY.
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Globs
11,749 posts
100 months
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DoubleSix said: I will never forgive that twitchy eyed t t for selling off our gold at pitiful prices AGAINST THE ADVICE OF THE TREASURY. Wasn't that the act of many governments at the formation of the euro? Something to do with prostrating themselves in front of the ECB as I recall.
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DoubleSix
2,521 posts
45 months
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Globs said: DoubleSix said: I will never forgive that twitchy eyed t t for selling off our gold at pitiful prices AGAINST THE ADVICE OF THE TREASURY. Wasn't that the act of many governments at the formation of the euro? Something to do with prostrating themselves in front of the ECB as I recall. Not that I'm aware of, Germany, Italy & France still seem to have plenty (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve). The subsequent attempts to block any release of information about the sales also invite utter derision.
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Steffan
6,190 posts
97 months
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Mermaid said: Steffan, any predictions for what this week-end will bring? Good question Mermaid. The Greek election will be over by Monday and I think some very tricky decisions will be upon the EU leaders and eventually, the rest of us. See http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2012/06/14/gree...For a great deal more detail. Being purely practical, I think, in the end, the Greeks cannot continue in the frozen disaster of the economy, they are left with within the Euro. Clearly, the Greek population want another way of living, rather than the unending constant austerity and complete penury they are currently enduring. Unfortunately, if you spend more than you earn, for years, penury is the result. I think the Greeks have no real alternative. The EU may offer further incentives to remain, possibilities to consider, opportunities to discuss, to Greece. That might buy a little time. The decision to leave may be delayed for a few weeks, in consequence. The new Greek government may, indeed probably will, shilly shally and procrastinate, over what decision to make. That could mean further delay. My logic suggests that there is no alternative for a wholly insolvent and penniless Sovereign State frozen into a high value currency union, that the state cannot possibly afford, other than to leave that union. They can then commence trading with their own currency, the Drachma, and hopefully begin rebuilding their currency strength and value and rebuilding their country. My primary concern now is to protect the innocent families and children within Greece whose lives are being ripped apart in all of this. I hope the EU acts effectively to assist Greece in every possible way to prevent the desperate hardship and poverty that this could bring to millions. A soft landing for Greece must be our aim. There is, IMO no way to avoid the financial realities of life. Default by Greece IMO is simply financial reality. We should attempt to minimise the worst short term effects. We cannot be responsible in the long term. Greece IS an independent Sovereign State. They make their own decisions.
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WhoseGeneration
4,090 posts
76 months
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Steffan said: Greece IS an independent Sovereign State. They make their own decisions. Er, nope, as with all States in the EU, let alone the €zone. Otherwise why Brussels and Strasbourg?
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Steffan
6,190 posts
97 months
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WhoseGeneration said: Steffan said: Greece IS an independent Sovereign State. They make their own decisions. Er, nope, as with all States in the EU, let alone the €zone. Otherwise why Brussels and Strasbourg? I think the Greeks have the power to leave the Euro, if they wish at any time. The EU cannot force them to stay. The Sovereign states are Sovereign entities in themselves. They decide their future. If it were otherwise Greece could not decide to drop the Euro and retain the Drachma.
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loafer123
2,699 posts
84 months
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Steffan said: loafer123 said: Gargamel said: Indeed Steffan and I have been thinking about the various solutions and new theories that this thread has from time to time dabbled in. Clearly in relation to the £140bn to the banks – it is akin to a dealer providing free heroin to an addict trying to go clean. A stupid stupid decision, if the Government were honest they would say we are trying to re capitalise the banks and “solve” a liquidity crunch. That would spook the markets and possible cause a downgrade on credit ratings. So we have a fiction, the fiction of new business loans. What a pile of crap, if this was supposed to be economic stimulus then $140bn is a f k of a lot of tax cutting – indeed we could go to £20,000 tax free band and probably a £50,000 threshold for 40% personal tax allowance with that kind of money – then we’d see some economic stimulus. Lying through their teeth. However, moving on from that – I was considering a small town. Let us consider that an honest broker establishes a coffee shop and small stock exchange inside. We will deal with an informal currency, let’s say Shire town coupons. These have a notional value of £1. The citizens and workers of Shire town elect to receive 10% of their wages in Shire town coupons, and the local stores and service providers agree to accept them where possible. Thus an informal trade is created in the town, which pays no tax, is a formal exchange and – for instance the Honest Broker can likely establish an exchange whereby people who wish to buy a service in the town can exchange Sterling for Coupons, and vice versa Shoot the model down, why wouldn’t it work, and more importantly what would be the reaction of the Tax Authorities ? The point of the £140bn is to be lent to businesses to help growth and spending, but that it will be repaid. It is not simply giving away money. It is also worth opting that the banks will likely to be made to pass on the cost of cash savings to the borrowers, so whilst it makes them safer (lower liquidity risk) it is less likely to increase profits as such. Gargamel is right here. The politicians are lying through their back teeth. This money will not be spent on loans to businesses it will be spent on easing the liquidity of Banks. It will not be repaod by small businesses because it will NEVER be given to them in the first place. In British politics we are well past the point where we need to adopt the attitude of Talleyrand who, on hearing that a Foreign Minister in a rival government, had died suddenly, said, on hearing the news: "I wonder why he did that?" Our politicians are that bent, to a man, or woman. The dishonestly of the modern politicians is boundless. We need to understand that. This is a poorly disguised attempt to ease the impending liquidity crisis in British Banking. We are approaching another major Banking crisis within four years of the last one. The government and BoE are desperate to avoid this. They cannot admit the truth and face the problem. Therefore they tell complex lies to mislead the public. Do not be misled. None of this money will be used to stimulate business growth in the UK. It will ALL be used to reduce the impending liquidity crisis in UK Banking. None of it will be repaid. The Taxpayer is the patsy of another 140 Billion, having not yet been repaid for the last lot. Nor will the taxpayer be repaid. We are just patsy's and easy money for failed politicians to squander. As Gargamel says, such an amount could massively stimulate business is applied in the right way, in general tax reduction. What better way to stimulate the workers desire to work? That would cause business growth. This is not about growth. It is about saving insolvent and illiquid Banks. Worst of all it is an inadequate sum to achieve even that. We are staring straight into the eyes of another massive banking crisis. The coalition are losing control and stumbling over simple policies. This will not last politically or economically. Bertie Cameron and Boy George are spent forces already. Look at the Budget U turns on Taxation, the mess with BskyB the mess with NoW the mess with Jeremy Hunt, the mess with Liam Fox etc etc. These are unforced errors, They are simply not up to the job. And it shows. I refer you to my previous answer - the debt is repayable, a tax giveaway would not be. We need to live within our means.
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turbobloke
55,494 posts
129 months
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1point7bar said: turbobloke said: Understand clients' businesses? Heresy!  The banks have a derivatives exposure that they need a balance sheet cash position to reduce value at risk ratios. Hardly the point. The last business manager I had who would look and listen and could understand what was going on well enough to hold a sensible and productive conversation was plying their trade in 1995, I remember his name to this day. After that, the rest have been a waste of space and instantly forgettable.
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WhoseGeneration
4,090 posts
76 months
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Steffan said: I think the Greeks have the power to leave the Euro, if they wish at any time. The EU cannot force them to stay.
The Sovereign states are Sovereign entities in themselves. They decide their future. If it were otherwise Greece could not decide to drop the Euro and retain the Drachma. It's not the Greeks who will decide, it will be the Greek politicians. The politicians, of whichever view, who will be summoned to a meeting with the €Zone powerbrokers and told what they will do. Fwiw, I think the Greeks missed a trick in joining the €, outside of it with the Drachma they could have become the major holiday destination for the EU, because of the reasons we all know. Which might have meant they'd be in a much better position than now. Then, grandiose projects, for politicians, always appeal.
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sjn2004
3,440 posts
106 months
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Any opinion polls around for the Greek election this Sunday? Seems very quiet hopefully the anti bailout parties win.
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LongQ
8,838 posts
102 months
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WhoseGeneration said: It's not the Greeks who will decide, it will be the Greek politicians.
The politicians, of whichever view, who will be summoned to a meeting with the €Zone powerbrokers and told what they will do.
Fwiw, I think the Greeks missed a trick in joining the €, outside of it with the Drachma they could have become the major holiday destination for the EU, because of the reasons we all know. Which might have meant they'd be in a much better position than now.
Then, grandiose projects, for politicians, always appeal. But why have to work with arrogant holiday makers alone when you are told that having a shared currency will make visitors from europe more likely to visit AND your family's olive grove will attract subsidies as well as miraculously double its output (to attract more subsidy)?
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WhoseGeneration
4,090 posts
76 months
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Blib
20,657 posts
66 months
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sjn2004 said: Any opinion polls around for the Greek election this Sunday? Seems very quiet hopefully the anti bailout parties win. IIRC, polls are not allowed in the last days before a Greek election.
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WhoseGeneration
4,090 posts
76 months
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LongQ said: But why have to work with arrogant holiday makers alone when you are told that having a shared currency will make visitors from europe more likely to visit AND your family's olive grove will attract subsidies as well as miraculously double its output (to attract more subsidy)? Yup, you have a point, that'd be shortsightedness. I want it now.
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Gargamel
5,332 posts
130 months
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loafer123 said: I refer you to my previous answer - the debt is repayable, a tax giveaway would not be. We need to live within our means. you would have to calculate that the upturn in domestic consumer spending would repay in MULTIPLES the outlay in the tax cut. I , like every economist, have a theory, but there is only one way to really find out.
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Steffan
6,190 posts
97 months
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WhoseGeneration said: Steffan said: I think the Greeks have the power to leave the Euro, if they wish at any time. The EU cannot force them to stay.
The Sovereign states are Sovereign entities in themselves. They decide their future. If it were otherwise Greece could not decide to drop the Euro and retain the Drachma. It's not the Greeks who will decide, it will be the Greek politicians. The politicians, of whichever view, who will be summoned to a meeting with the €Zone powerbrokers and told what they will do. Fwiw, I think the Greeks missed a trick in joining the €, outside of it with the Drachma they could have become the major holiday destination for the EU, because of the reasons we all know. Which might have meant they'd be in a much better position than now. Then, grandiose projects, for politicians, always appeal. We disagree. The Greeks elect their own government. No influence from the EU there. The EU may have influence on the elected government, but it will be limited, because the Greeks are up against it. I think that will severely limit the EU role. I think Greece will leave the Euro, but it could take weeks. IMO Greece cannot afford to remain within the Euro. What will be interesting, and possibly disastrous is what the Spaniards and Portuguese do once the Greeks leave. Will there be a domino effect? Will the Greeks show the way by putting all their savings into German Banks in Euros before Greece leaves? Which they currently can. In which case will the Spanish. Portuguese, Italians and French follow suit? That could create Bank runs in all directions. It would be entirely sensible for the savers but totally disastrous for the Greek, Spanish, and Portuguese and Italian and French Banks. It would protect the savings for the individuals, but ruin the Banks affected. That is what I would have done some time ago, were I Greek. Doubtless many have. Not easy to predict. My feeling is that the Greeks will leave first, followed by Portugal, Spain and then we will be in a new game of can the Euro be saved? Once major changes begin within a union like the Euro, the effect of these will call into question, the future of the union itself Funny game economics. Virtually no change for years. then enormous changes all of a sudden. Partly because no government will admit forced change until the last possible moment. Then the new position is adopted.
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steveatesh
966 posts
33 months
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@ Steffan 21.41 http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2012/06/14/gree...This link suggests that whoever wins the main players in the EZ will negotiate with the winner and do some more can kicking, or at least that's the way I interpret it. So maybe an anti climax and then more waiting??
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WhoseGeneration
4,090 posts
76 months
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Steffan said: We disagree. The Greeks elect their own government. No influence from the EU there. The EU may have influence on the elected government, but it will be limited, because the Greeks are up against it. I think that will severely limit the EU role. I think Greece will leave the Euro, but it could take weeks. IMO Greece cannot afford to remain within the Euro.
What will be interesting, and possibly disastrous is what the Spaniards and Portuguese do once the Greeks leave. Will there be a domino effect?
Will the Greeks show the way by putting all their savings into German Banks in Euros before Greece leaves? Which they currently can. In which case will the Spanish. Portuguese, Italians and French follow suit? That could create Bank runs in all directions.
It would be entirely sensible for the savers but totally disastrous for the Greek, Spanish, and Portuguese and Italian and French Banks. It would protect the savings for the individuals, but ruin the Banks affected. That is what I would have done some time ago, were I Greek. Doubtless many have.
Not easy to predict. My feeling is that the Greeks will leave first, followed by Portugal, Spain and then we will be in a new game of can the Euro be saved? Once major changes begin within a union like the Euro, the effect of these will call into question, the future of the union itself
Funny game economics. Virtually no change for years. then enormous changes all of a sudden. Partly because no government will admit forced change until the last possible moment. Then the new position is adopted. Within this post from you is the reason why Greece will not leave the €. You suggest a follow on effect and that is the reason. As I have tried to tell you before, the EU and the €Zone is the central political theory of our time. As such the current politicians will do their utmost to defend it. Economics is but a sideshow.
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Blib
20,657 posts
66 months
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But, the politician's best efforts to control this debacle have been blown apart by market reactions.
Personally, I believe that the economics will ultimately overwhelm the political side of this. The figures don't add up any more and the market knows it and will ruthlessly take advantage of that fact.
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Globs
11,749 posts
100 months
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Steffan said: The Greeks elect their own government. No influence from the EU there. I thought Papademos was appointed by the EU?
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