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Globs
11,740 posts
100 months
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davepoth said: Blib said: I heard some Italian politician talking this morning about a "New Axis" developing of Italy, Spain and France. Sort of like Europe, but with even less working? The Axis-of-The-Inept.
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LongQ
8,835 posts
102 months
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Blib said: I heard some Italian politician talking this morning about a "New Axis" developing of Italy, Spain and France. Was he talking about football? The teams from some of a smaller insolvent countries seems to be progressing quite well (according to the headlines I have seen ....) at the expense of the more solvent ones. Is there a message there?
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davepoth
19,862 posts
68 months
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Globs said: The Axis-of-The-Inept. The Axis of "Ey, we do it mañana"?
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Driller
5,235 posts
147 months
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LongQ said: I seem to recall at one point he was promising to shut down the French Nuclear reactors. Was that correct? Well, now he can keep that promise with absolutely no one to resit the decision.
I wonder if he will?
And if he does what will that mean for the French economy? Indeed what would it mean for the German economy? He first starting tallking about closing down the 24 in the first round of elections to try to guarantee the green vote. In the debates of the second round and since, he has climbed down and will now only close 1 reactor which is more than 40 years old apparently. Presumably this "saves face". Now that the socialists are fully in, people will be able to clearly see the mess they make. Aren't folk funny, they think that blind change is all it takes to remedy a situation. Desperation?
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LongQ
8,835 posts
102 months
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Driller said: Aren't folk funny, they think that blind change is all it takes to remedy a situation. Desperation? The concept of a remedy is interesting. Has their ever been one? I think you can move a situation and possibly even change its appearance. But I doubt it will be remedied although with time it may become irrelevant.
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DJRC
19,819 posts
105 months
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Hollande will barely fulfill any of his big election promises. He hasnt got the dosh and can see a further sodding big hole in his finances in the quick sand beneath his financial sector.
Now, every week we get someoone or other saying that the UK is in just as bad shape. This is a good line to show the contrast and why we are not. Our banks are nowhere near as exposed to the Spanish, Greek and Italian economies. On a wider basis, there has been large scale reprofiling of business away from the EZ over the last 4 yrs across the sector and indeed the British economy. Thirdly we can do with the BOE exactly what the EZ cannot.
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Driller
5,235 posts
147 months
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LongQ said: The concept of a remedy is interesting. Has their ever been one? I think a remedy exists but there is no practical way of effecting it and certainly changing the party in power isn't going to do it.
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Ozzie Osmond
12,066 posts
115 months
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So here we are, 12 months and 700 pages of internet twaddle after Steffan started this thread with dire predictions that everything must collapse by Autumn 2011.
Whilst there's clearly much to be done in Europe to develop the political union of the Euro into a full economic union there is no indication that anyone wants to jump off the ship. After all, the certainty of drowning is hardly an attractive option.
Recent comments in this thread about money supply, central banks etc have sounded more like a charter for socialism than capitalism. Equally we have the older Greeks frightened of losing what they have while the younger Greeks see little opportunity of getting to own anything. In the meantime in the UK and around the world we see the rich getting richer by the day, still lead by banks despite their disastrous track record.
I remain of the opinion that "Europe", including the euro, will survive one way or another.
The biggest questions may eventually be for UK.
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Globs
11,740 posts
100 months
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LongQ said: Driller said: Aren't folk funny, they think that blind change is all it takes to remedy a situation. Desperation? The concept of a remedy is interesting. Has their ever been one? I think you can move a situation and possibly even change its appearance. But I doubt it will be remedied although with time it may become irrelevant. There has always been a simple remedy that removes power from the ECB/ESM: Print your own currency, and let the markets balance your currency against the external currencies. Internally the currency is balanced by spending (supply of currency) and taxation (removal of currency) controlled by the elected government. The 'traditional' method of 'balance' with funny money is cheap loans (supply of currency) and interest charges (removal of currency) controlled by the ECB. This is what ails the euro, creates debt and inflation, and drains the wealth of nations. The BIG problem with this is it removes power from the ECB/ESM, so is highly Verboten, and not to be discussed.
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Driller
5,235 posts
147 months
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That was my point above: the remedy exists but the people in power don't want any of it!
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tonker
43,756 posts
117 months
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Driller said: That was my point above: the remedy exists but the people in power don't want any of it! neither do the people. They all want someone else to pay for it whilst they continue overspending and avoid paying their fair share of taxes. Whether that is politicians, economists, old, young, public sector workers, private sector, you name it. And not just in the periphery of Europe. Nothing they are proposing actually solves the problem or starts to pay down the debt, it just keeps the credit flowing so they can keep on not balancing their budgets, whether household or national.... or European...
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davepoth
19,862 posts
68 months
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Ozzie Osmond said: So here we are, 12 months and 700 pages of internet twaddle after Steffan started this thread with dire predictions that everything must collapse by Autumn 2011.
Whilst there's clearly much to be done in Europe to develop the political union of the Euro into a full economic union there is no indication that anyone wants to jump off the ship. After all, the certainty of drowning is hardly an attractive option.
Recent comments in this thread about money supply, central banks etc have sounded more like a charter for socialism than capitalism. Equally we have the older Greeks frightened of losing what they have while the younger Greeks see little opportunity of getting to own anything. In the meantime in the UK and around the world we see the rich getting richer by the day, still lead by banks despite their disastrous track record.
I remain of the opinion that "Europe", including the euro, will survive one way or another.
The biggest questions may eventually be for UK. In a rational system, everything should have collapsed by Autumn 2011. Greece would probably be through the worst of the hyper-inflation phase by now and Germany would have agreed to Eurobonds, protecting Spain and Italy from the same fate. Europe isn't rational though. They've done just enough to drag things out, which has been making the problem progressively worse over the last two years. We are in a situation where the Euro is no safer than it was at the beginning of these threads because their policies have been political answers to an economic question. Until Germany agrees to Eurobonds it won't be fixed. And we won't get that until Berlin is holding the purse strings of all of the Eurozone countries.
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HundredthIdiot
4,353 posts
153 months
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The currency issues are a distraction. As the Germans are so fond of pointing out, money printing doesn't solve structural problems. There's an interesting piece in the Irish Times today which compares the Greek economy to that of former communist states after the breakup. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/061..."When communism collapsed, it was incontestable that a very large proportion of economic activity had been generated unsustainably by the state. When that evaporated in the early 1990s a brutal shake-out took place over half a decade. Economies contracted massively. Unemployment soared. State spending – on pensions, public workers’ pay and health – was slashed. Export sectors in these previously closed economies had to be built almost from scratch. Now look at Greece today. Among the 27 members of the EU, it exports less than any other country relative to the size of its economy. Most activity is domestically focused. It is now clear that unsustainable state spending artificially puffed up the economy, much as had happened in communist countries. While Greece may not have as much to do to create a functioning market economy as ex-communist countries did, its politics do not augur well for recovery. The most successful former communist countries were mostly the ones where the quality of governance was best. When governments showed they were serious, foreign investors took them seriously. Waves of investment rolled in. Foreign companies in those countries played a crucial role in generating sustainable economic growth. It is difficult to see Greece attracting much foreign money until it gets its political act together."
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LongQ
8,835 posts
102 months
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Driller said: LongQ said: The concept of a remedy is interesting. Has their ever been one? I think a remedy exists but there is no practical way of effecting it and certainly changing the party in power isn't going to do it. Likely so, and therefore I would posit that there is no remedy in practice although theory may suggest at least one remedy and possibly more than one to any problem. But I was originally thinking more broadly than to focus on the current financail problem. Of all the major issues that arise (especially but not exlusively in the EU and not necessarily to do with thing fiscal) how many have actually been 'repaired' in terms of what they were and the remedy suggested? How many have simply drifted into partial 'solutions' by being altered in part by steps apparently taken as part of a politically based decision process? How many have transformed into other problems or simply faded away as they were overtaken by time and 'events'? As General Eisenhower is reputed to have said about Military operations, "Plans are useless, but planning is essential." In a modern world driven by TV soap opera consumption objectives and EU style multi-layer politics Eisenhower might be re-stated as "Plots are useless, but plotting is essential."
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Andrew[MG]
2,384 posts
67 months
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HundredthIdiot said: While Greece may not have as much to do to create a functioning market economy as ex-communist countries did, its politics do not augur well for recovery. The difference being that the ex communist countries had a population that was desperate for freedom, desperate to work hard for real rewards and desperate for change. In Greece, large parts of the population want to just keep life the way it is. Having said that, large populations of the ex communist countries would love to go back to the 'good old days'.
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Mermaid
12,481 posts
40 months
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HundredthIdiot said: ... It is difficult to see Greece attracting much foreign money until it gets its political act together." & the possibility of that? The Eurozone did no favours to Greece by admitting it to the Euro.
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Driller
5,235 posts
147 months
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tonker said: neither do the people. Depends which people you're talking about though doesn't it? Who takes the hit?
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HundredthIdiot
4,353 posts
153 months
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Andrew[MG] said: The difference being that the ex communist countries had a population that was desperate for freedom, desperate to work hard for real rewards and desperate for change. In Greece, large parts of the population want to just keep life the way it is. It can't stay the way it is, so that particular cultural stereotype is irrelevant. There are lots of hard working Greek people. I'm sure the tax evasion and corruption are inter-dependent - why pay taxes if they're not going to get spent on services? Greece has the opportunity to transform itself, positively, even whilst staying in the euro. Germany has proven that internal devaluation works if you do it right. There is far too much negativity in the current discourse, both within and without Greece.
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Steffan
6,180 posts
97 months
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davepoth said: Ozzie Osmond said: So here we are, 12 months and 700 pages of internet twaddle after Steffan started this thread with dire predictions that everything must collapse by Autumn 2011.
Whilst there's clearly much to be done in Europe to develop the political union of the Euro into a full economic union there is no indication that anyone wants to jump off the ship. After all, the certainty of drowning is hardly an attractive option.
Recent comments in this thread about money supply, central banks etc have sounded more like a charter for socialism than capitalism. Equally we have the older Greeks frightened of losing what they have while the younger Greeks see little opportunity of getting to own anything. In the meantime in the UK and around the world we see the rich getting richer by the day, still lead by banks despite their disastrous track record.
I remain of the opinion that "Europe", including the euro, will survive one way or another.
The biggest questions may eventually be for UK. In a rational system, everything should have collapsed by Autumn 2011. Greece would probably be through the worst of the hyper-inflation phase by now and Germany would have agreed to Eurobonds, protecting Spain and Italy from the same fate. Europe isn't rational though. They've done just enough to drag things out, which has been making the problem progressively worse over the last two years. We are in a situation where the Euro is no safer than it was at the beginning of these threads because their policies have been political answers to an economic question. Until Germany agrees to Eurobonds it won't be fixed. And we won't get that until Berlin is holding the purse strings of all of the Eurozone countries. 10/10 observation. There is no solution in the EU dragging this on. It is simply ramping up the consequences for us all. Default is the only permanent answer to Insolvency. The longer this goes on the worse it is going to get.
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tonker
43,756 posts
117 months
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Driller said: tonker said: neither do the people. Depends which people you're talking about though doesn't it? Who takes the hit? The investors don't want to take the hit. But they will. The population don't want to pay and don't want to live within their means. The politicians don't give a stuff so long as they get re-elected and they keep it going long enough to retire with their illgotten loot. And everyone avoids the inevitable reset for as long as they can, because it suits them. The pain is needed - once it's done, it's done.... but no-one wants to do it - even the Germans would much rather impose their own terms, which are not living within their means, than accept this.... their terms are unpalatable, but they are still letting these countries live outside their means - and ignoring the wishes of the German people - who would much rather look after the Germans first (all is not hunky dory there either)
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