That is why I am interested in the actual jurisdiction of the law relating to the issue of Greek bonds.

I think the jurisdiction on many of these is the UK.

If that is the case then the UK Insolvency laws will determine the proportion of agreement required for a scheme of arrangement to be binding on the creditors of Greek bonds.

The Hedge funds are generally pretty sharp. They will have sussed this out in detail. It may well be that the terms of the Greek Bonds are couched under UK jurisdiction. In which case a majority of more than 50% would be required to be binding on the other Bondholders. It could be 75%.

In a way this is a sideshow. But I find it a very interesting sideshow.

IMO the Greeks will default whatever terms are agreed with the EU.

This is because the Greeks cannot possibly achieve the cuts required and still have a country left to run. It is impossible and utterly wrong.

The EU being the madmen they are, the pretense will go on for a while.

But default is the only way Greece can devalue its currency and start too rebuild. Once the subsidy is gone, the Greeks will default. Late March IMO.

I agree. What it will not do is keep Greece in the Euro.

Greece will default.

Presumably then all the haircuts will be off and the CDS insurance will be liable to repay the full value of the default. I am unconvinced that the insurance companies (if indeed these are insurance companies) will be able to meet the debt.

I am utterly unable to understand why the EU have not attempted to actually manage the problem to keep the Greeks in the Euro and prevent the possibility of collateral damage to the other insolvent countries and pressure on all the defaulters through faltering confidence worldwide.

Presumably the EU simply does not have the impetus or will to resolve the issues. It is much easier to print money and flood the system with Billions of Euros.

But ultimately this EU philosophy was always bound to fail. Spin and hype are no substitute of effective action in a crisis. There has been no effective action from the EU.

Instead the EU have created a series of reforms to be made to the Greek economy which will render the country ungovernable if it is actually introduced in Greece.

Greek default is inevitable.

Firstly, because Greece simply cannot afford the costs of living in the Euro. Greece needs a currency devaluation. It is complete nonsense to believe Greece can recover and remain in the Euro. It will not happen.

Secondly, because the EU have totally failed to recognise the reality of the Greek crisis and effectively manage the default of Greece or manage the subsidy required for Greece to remain.

The EU have tried to play poker with the Greek default with Grandstanding and Funny Money as the prime cards. Much easier than facing the facts and admitting the mistakes made by the EU. Greece too has made mistakes.

Unfortunately because of this the game has gone awry.

Yet, like many things before it, the BBC's issue with this, is a lack of understanding that working hard does not on its own make something successful and that there is a difference between the public and private sectors . . . .in the case of Greece, the workers could be the most productive and hard working on the planet, but if they don’t pay tax and what little they do pay, is frittered away on a bloated, corrupt and inefficient public sector, then the public sector debt will destroy the whole country.

What the BBC REALLY fail to realise is that whatever the hell the Greeks did before the euro only affected the Greeks.
It's the Euro and the ECB/EU that makes all this suddenly everyone elses problem.

It's like having a friend who is always broke, and then deciding to have a joint account and complaining when he spends too much.

Steffan, seriously? With the best will in the world, why do you continue with predictions like that? You're certainly well, well past the point where you can say "I told you so" and that's if anything happens at all.

How long can you go on predicting the end of something before you have to give it up?

At what point, if there is no change, will you admit that you were wrong? Can you at least tell us that?

How about June 2012, the one year anniversary.


Here's a (very distilled!) history:

Friday 17th June 2011
"Certainly within 6 months and very possibly much less the other PIGS Ireland Portugal and Spain will need another bail out and reality will set in."

Saturday 18th June 2011
"Seems my timeframe of August for the Greek collapse is still looking reasonable."

Sunday 19th June 2011
"I anticipate the refunding of Greece short term: by August the Greek economy will collapse and fall out of the Euro. "

Then on Monday 20th June 2011
"August is my date for Greek Collapse but I could out by some months."

The on Friday 1st July 2011 we’re back to:
"Greece is going bust big time. I think August anyone disagree?"

Monday 4th July 2011
"Looks like the end is nigh for Greece. August crunch looks right to me"

Monday 18th July 2011
"About four more weeks I think or there abouts."

Monday 18th July 2011
"The Euro will be very weak shortly."

Tuesday 19th July 2011
"Therefore the PIIGS are doomed"

Wednesday 20th July 2011
"Or they could simply refuse further aid in which case Greek will default next week."

Friday 22nd July 2011
" the Greeks will be out of the Euro in a nonth and chaos will follow"

Friday 29th July 2011
"Within three months and possibly considerably less this will be back to face Europe"
Monday 1st August 2011
"I still believe this Greek crisis will reappear before the end of August."

Wednesday 3rd August 2011
"My view still is that the PIGS or possibly PIIIGS will collapse in Domino order before the end of the month."

"As others on this forum are saying this cannot go on. FOUR WEEKS!!"

Thursday 4th August 2011
"The PIIGS are going bust very shortly. "

Friday 5th August 2011
"As I said a while ago August 2011 will be the crunch time."

Saturday 13th August 2011
"How long do you think? Days? Weeks? Surely not months?"

Tuesday 16th August 2011
"I think the PIIGS are going down very shortly."
"The run on the PIIGS happening NOW."

Then the end of August arrives:
Thursday 25th August 2011 and it's back to:
" I still think this Autumn."

"PIIGS collapse here we come."

Sunday 28th August 2011
"Weeks? Yes I think so. Days? Very possibly"

Monday 29th August 2011
"I think the end is nigh for the PIIGS."

"There will be a run of the PIIGS probably starting with Greece. Now. "

August comes and goes

Monday 5th September 2011
"I think the crunch is almost upon us. "

Wednesday 7th September 2011
"This will be end shorty I think. "

Sunday 11th September 2011
"Greece will collapse shortly. "

Monday 12th September 2011
"Default is coming."

Tuesday 13th September 2011
"PIIGS are bust."

Tuesday 13th September 2011
"The end IS nigh"

Wednesday 14th September 2011
"Well its all coming thick and fast this morning The PIIGS are going. "

Thursday 15th September 2011
"Too little too late. The disaster is upon them. THE PIIGS ARE GOING."

Thursday 15th September 2011
"The PIIGS are gone"

Sunday 18th September 2011
"I am sorry to say the end is nigh."

Monday 19th September 2011
"Over the next month the inevitability of a Greek default will become apparent"
Tuesday 20th September 2011
"the PIIGS will begin unwinding shortly. "

Wednesday 21st September 2011
"I think the fall of the PIIGS is actually upon us."

"Greece will naturally fail to deliver the proposed savings and fold in October or November"

Friday 23rd September 2011
"Greece and Ireland are both Dead Ducks. Not long I think."

Friday 23rd September 2011
"The next tranche of Euro funds (charity?) to Greece is due in early October I believe. If this is paid Greece could last another month. If it is not paid I doubt if Greece could function for more than a few days"

Saturday 1st October 2011
"This month?"

Monday 3rd October 2011
"the crunch now cometh and October seems a long month for the PIIGS to me. "

Thursday 6th October 2011
"In my view Greece will go first followed by the rest: the crunch is coming."

Thursday 20th October 2011
"Not long now before the effluent hits the fan."

Friday 21st October 2011
"Greece will lead the PIIGS out of Europe very shortly."

Saturday 22nd October 2011
"NOT LONG NOW."

The end of October comes and goes. I couldn't be bothered to go through the 300 odd pages of Nov and Dec but presumably it went something like "Greece is toast, the PIGS are bust-tomorrow!" several times per page

Monday 16th January
"It will be pissing down shortly. Then a flood of Biblical proportions."

Thursday 19th January
"the point of collapse is rapidly approaching"

Monday 13th February
"Not Long."

Tuesday 14th February
"Default is rapidly approaching."

Yesterday (21:20)
"I think the Greeks will default. Shortly."

Yesterday (22:30)
"the Greeks will default. Late March IMO"

To be fair, I think he does. The record of prediction is, well, beyong poor. It's been 100% wrong so far.

Sadly for driller, Steffan only has to be right once...

IMO it really comes down to whether I am going to be right in the end.

I set the original Topic title out with double question marks`at the end of the line because I was unsure of the timing. I still am.

Difficult to predict when the entire EU is trying to prevent the collapse.The EU have huge resources and can spin this out. But they cannot actually prevent the defaults of hugely insolvent Sovereign states. As I think has become apparent to most observers.

I appreciate the effort Driller made in deducing the number of comments he listed. It saves me a job when I come to review the topic after the Greeks default and the whole morass moves on to round two which will be the default of the rest of the insolvent Sovereign states.

If Driller wants to start a topic on why I am wrong and to explain how the insolvent Sovereign states will continue within the Euro good luck to him. IMO he will need to rewrite the economics textbooks but that is up to Driller. I would happily contribute, obviously arguing Driller would be wrong.

For my part I will continue to bang the drum on what will be by far the largest economic collapse in world history and will repeat itself several times over the next few months. The consequences of this mess will resound around the entire world economies for years to come. Such events are not easy to predict and the timing is extremely difficult to foresee.

I think I will be right in the end.

I think a lot of PH'ers and others also think the defaults are inevitable.

I just hope the tragedy of the suffering and penury that will be wrought upon the citizens of the countries concerned is not too great.

Because, at the risk of repeating myself, the defaults are inevitable. The timing is open to question.

Tbh given the history of currency Unions and the Greeks part in their demise, this has all been done before. There was an excellent progr on Radio 4 yesterday morning itemising the failure of EVERY attempt at currency Union.

Steffans only error has been attempting to put a date on it, the reality is, that history shows that it WILL fail and there would be a nearly 100% certainty on its subsequent collapse.

Cheers

I think the issue is this is a slow motion crises, which sovereign debt crises can be.

I recently read "Too big to fail" which was a very interesting account of the start of the financial crash. There the remaining life of the various investment banks was measured in days, or less towards the end, without intervention, as they were dependant on short term funding.

Countries are a very different proposition, particularly where they share a currency and therefore don't suffer a foreign exchange crises. The issue then becomes whether it can meet debt repayments as they become due and whether ongoing government expenditure can be financed.

This could drag on for years, but without a fundamental change in growth and competitiveness within the Eurozone the outcome remains inevitable for many.

Being in banking ops, I'm still intrigued as to how you go back to your own currency from being in a currency union when you have no reserve bank, no central clearer, no FX market, all your EPOS units are set-up for Euros, all your bank accounts are denominated in Euros etc. etc.

The only remotely orderly way for Greece to exit the Euro will take years, and will assume that blind panic doesn't set-in in the interim (a big and incorrect assumption I fear).

My predecessors earnt very good money over several years putting the Euro together in the late 90s, to think that you can break it up again over the course of a weekend Brussels summit is humpty-dumptyism of the highest order...

The reason european politicians are so keen on keeping the Euro together is because Greece exiting will cause civil war in Greece, mass immigration as Greek citizens leave for other EU countries, and may well spread to other SGIP* countries as market confidence dries up in the entire Eurozone.

Like others, I won't put a date on this, but there are fundamental issues that will need to be resolved at some point, and will lead to some pretty nasty outcomes for those involved.

The denialists seem to think they live in a world where all the bad things happened in the past, and nothing bad will ever happen again, seemingly unaware of what happens when a banking system stops, and people get very very hungry....



(*lest I offend the precious)