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Steffan

6,184 posts

97 months

[news] 
Tuesday 31st July 2012 quote quote all
There does seem to be a general agreement in PH that the most likely response of the EU to the latest problems of the Euro stability can only be dealt with by permanent subsidy to the HBAT’s and I thought it might be helpful to revue the reality of the consequences that an EU decision to continue with bailing out the HBAT’s on a permanent basis must imply.

If the EU decide to permanently subsidise the sovereign states within the EU, currently facing economic collapse, then the strain of providing the necessary funding permanently can only be met by the EU, since the HBAT’s cannot contribute. Thus must require centralisation of economic control directly to Brussels.

I am mindful of the suggestions that bullet points might reduce my verbosity. To that end the changes needed will include:

•Fiscal control, Financial controls and Economic controls would be
centralised within the EU. This would effectively remove the need for
individual governments, who would effectively become large local
authorities.

•The ECB would become the only central bank with one bond market and one
central interest rate. The other Central Banks would be superfluous.

•Federal Taxes would be unified and effectively become pan European. The
tax advantages of the lower tax rates in individual states for offshore
use would be lost in one stroke.

•There would one European rate for VAT, one set of European personal
taxation requirements and allowances and one pan European tax return for
all businesses.

•There would be one central set of European personal taxation
requirements and allowances and one pan European tax return for all
individuals.

I am aware that huge changes would be required with major political and legal ramifications but I have concentrated on the obvious fiscal, financial and economic changes required to provide the huge amount of money to fund this policy, if it is in fact introduced by the EU. I cannot see any other way the EU can effectively mask the losses.

With absolute central control and puppet governments, the EU could then reapportion the economic cake as they wish. Which is the real aim of the EU on all of this I believe. That would give the EU the power and monetary backing required by this policy.

Could the EU deliver that level of change? I suspect the EU are pondering that very question currently. I personally have my doubts whether the EU can bounce this level of central control over the sovereign states even with the sovereign debt crisis, as a motivator. But I think they will try.

I think that is why there is the delay in the decision.

Andy Zarse

8,046 posts

116 months

[news] 
Tuesday 31st July 2012 quote quote all
HundredthIdiot said:
I'm avoiding answering because your challenge is to people who support the Euro, and I don't support the Euro.

The socialisation of banking losses is a consequence of lender of last resort, which is nothing to do with socialism.

Your posts are coming across a bit "special" today. Have you been drinking?
Feeble in all respects.


A very neat piece of synchronicity, one might almost say karma man, an article in today's Telegraph, pretty much sums up exactly what I mean.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/...

Edited by Andy Zarse on Tuesday 31st July 20:57

Andy Zarse

8,046 posts

116 months

[news] 
Tuesday 31st July 2012 quote quote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
baz1985 said:
It is inherently political. The Euro’s survival is not dependent on any normative mechanism; it is more reliant on whether the established powers want to fully consecrate the post war political project into a comprehensive fiscal and political union. The debt can be subsequently addressed with an assortment of Weimar hyperinflation and some collective IVA distribution in southern Europe.
Exactly.

The people are paying for the bankers mistakes. If the financial sector weren't such self-serving cretins they'd have reined in the politicians years ago.
Perfectly correct observation, though it hardly needs pointing out that if the politicians weren't such self-serving cretins they'd have reined in the financial sector years ago.

baz1985

3,429 posts

114 months

[news] 
Tuesday 31st July 2012 quote quote all
Andy Zarse said:
Feeble in all respects.


A very neat piece of synchronicity, one might almost say karma man, an article in today's Telegraph, pretty much sums up exactly what I what I mean.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/...
Andy, are you accepting the contention that 'the left will triumph'?

Given the assumed failure of the left and right, surely it's time again to embrace Giddens and Blair's Third Way.....maybe not!


Andy Zarse

8,046 posts

116 months

[news] 
Tuesday 31st July 2012 quote quote all
baz1985 said:
Andy Zarse said:
Feeble in all respects.


A very neat piece of synchronicity, one might almost say karma man, an article in today's Telegraph, pretty much sums up exactly what I what I mean.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/...
Andy, are you accepting the contention that 'the left will triumph'?

Given the assumed failure of the left and right, surely it's time again to embrace Giddens and Blair's Third Way.....maybe not!
Haha! Good point. I can only think "the triumph of the left" will ultimately be a failure smile
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Steffan

6,184 posts

97 months

[news] 
Tuesday 31st July 2012 quote quote all
Andy Zarse said:
HundredthIdiot said:
I'm avoiding answering because your challenge is to people who support the Euro, and I don't support the Euro.

The socialisation of banking losses is a consequence of lender of last resort, which is nothing to do with socialism.

Your posts are coming across a bit "special" today. Have you been drinking?
Feeble in all respects.


A very neat piece of synchronicity, one might almost say karma man, an article in today's Telegraph, pretty much sums up exactly what I mean.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/...

Edited by Andy Zarse on Tuesday 31st July 20:57
Whilst I am no fan of the Telegraph, which has a editorial style somewhat to the right of Genghis Kahn, I do think that much in this article is well composed and distinctly relevant, particularly the opening line:

"As Europe heads gently into the sweet night of economic ruin, it's worth taking a moment to ask why?"

That is essentially the reality of the " Save the Euro at all costs" approach of this EU bail out, at all costs nonsense. It is completely unaffordable. It cannot work. This EU approach is doomed to failure.

Presumably the EU leaders intend to be retired, comfortably, in receipt of their EU pensions, and well away from the fallout. by that tine.

Good post.

HundredthIdiot

4,353 posts

153 months

[news] 
Tuesday 31st July 2012 quote quote all
Andy Zarse said:
Feeble in all respects.

A very neat piece of synchronicity, one might almost say karma man, an article in today's Telegraph, pretty much sums up exactly what I mean.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/...
That article seems a bit confused.

"All over Europe, the working classes are enduring appalling deprivations in order to sustain a financial system which benefits the wealthy foremostly by allowing their assets to remain denominated in "hard" currency."

All over Europe? That bears absolutely no relation to the facts on the ground where I live (Ireland). Specifically, welfare rates in Ireland have been largely unaffected since the crisis began. The greatest "deprivations" have been to those who "own" property and shares, who have seen the value of these assets plummet. There have been substantial levies on public sector pensions particularly for high earners, and in Ireland those people are not poor. There have also been additional employment taxes which hit the high-salaried middle classes the most (I now pay over 50% income tax on most of my salary, compared to almost nothing for a minimum wage earner.

The government is also bringing in graduated property taxes, including (possibly) some kind of super tax on expensive properties. These new taxes are absolutely not hitting the poorest harder.

I also think the idea of cash-in-the-bank being any kind of inflation-proof store of value is ludicrous given the obvious inflation risks the Eurozone is currently facing.

I welcome facts from other Eurozone countries rather than the usual poorly argued anti-Left invective (which I might agree with if it was actually coherent).

Gargamel

5,322 posts

130 months

[news] 
Tuesday 31st July 2012 quote quote all
Steffan

Your post detailing the requirements for Fiscal union, is slightly more eloquently put than mine a few posts up or on the previous page.

You could still have tax competition via the US model of Federal and State tax, with states able to set their own local taxes.

I suppose my post was really trying to underline the futility of it all, at some point some time somewhere the question must be put to the Man on the Clapham Omnibus and he will say no to all this.


It CAN be done (save the Euro) but it won't be.

Steffan

6,184 posts

97 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
Gargamel said:
Steffan

Your post detailing the requirements for Fiscal union, is slightly more eloquently put than mine a few posts up or on the previous page.

You could still have tax competition via the US model of Federal and State tax, with states able to set their own local taxes.

I suppose my post was really trying to underline the futility of it all, at some point some time somewhere the question must be put to the Man on the Clapham Omnibus and he will say no to all this.


It CAN be done (save the Euro) but it won't be.
I recognise your earlier post. Which seems entirely well written to me. I was trying to codify the main points of my argument but various individuals, including you, have made the points before me.

What I was trying to do was elucidate the difficulties into a form which would draw a response from the pro Euro camp which actually forced the followers to recognise the huge downside of this path.

As AndyZarse and others have repeatedly sought to do. Without success. It would appear that the followers of the supremacy of the EU cannot actually formulate a response. Presumably they simply believe in fairies.

If this EU madness continues there will be horrendous consequences in Europe.

HundredthIdiot

4,353 posts

153 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
Steffan said:
What I was trying to do was elucidate the difficulties into a form which would draw a response from the pro Euro camp
Eh, I think you're in the wrong forum to be looking for Europhiles.

Most of PH would probably like to see the UK decomposed into city states. :-)

Blib

20,647 posts

66 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
HundredthIdiot said:
Most of PH would probably like to see the UK decomposed into city states. :-)
bounce

Can we start with London? Can we? CAN WE?????



Andrew[MG]

2,391 posts

67 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
The £ isn't looking great against the € this week. Any thoughts?

If there was a vote tomorrow then I bet that most would choose the bazooka [ul]http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/unlimited-euro-zone-rescue-fund-draws-counterfire-a-847628.html?#ref=rss[/url]

Art0ir

3,564 posts

39 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
Andrew[MG] said:
The £ isn't looking great against the € this week. Any thoughts?

If there was a vote tomorrow then I bet that most would choose the bazooka [ul]http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/unlimited-euro-zone-rescue-fund-draws-counterfire-a-847628.html?#ref=rss[/url]
The poor show in the UK economic data is convincing a lot of people that Monetary Easing (printing money out of thin air) is on the way again.. PMI is poor again. Morgan Stanley have reduced their UK outlook to a 0.5% contraction in GDP for 2012..

On the Euro side however, the current rally thanks to promises of "bold action" from the ECB will subside soon which will balance things out again.

Mermaid

12,490 posts

40 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
Art0ir said:
The poor show in the UK economic data is convincing a lot of people that Monetary Easing (printing money out of thin air) is on the way again.. PMI is poor again. Morgan Stanley have reduced their UK outlook to a 0.5% contraction in GDP for 2012..

On the Euro side however, the current rally thanks to promises of "bold action" from the ECB will subside soon which will balance things out again.
The Euro could enjoy a spike tomorrow.

coyft

3,017 posts

80 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
Bazooka or not, that's the real question. When push comes to shove I have no doubt it will get used.
Focus will move from the Euro, won't be long before it moves to the UK.

Art0ir

3,564 posts

39 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
Mermaid said:
The Euro could enjoy a spike tomorrow.
I think it all depends on the announcement regarding interest rates. If they're cut it will show he is reverting to monetary policy that he has already admitted doesn't work and is putting off anything worthwhile.

Most likely though he'll just restart the ECB bond purchasing to give countries a bit of breathing space. The Germans are still saying no to Eurobonds (who can blame them?) so I can't see anything great being pulled out of the hat tomorrow.

Art0ir

3,564 posts

39 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
coyft said:
Bazooka or not, that's the real question. When push comes to shove I have no doubt it will get used.
Focus will move from the Euro, won't be long before it moves to the UK.
Economic suicide, but sadly I wouldn't be surprised if they resort to it in line with their "Save the Euro at all costs" plan frown



Edited by Art0ir on Wednesday 1st August 16:42

HundredthIdiot

4,353 posts

153 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
coyft said:
Bazooka or not, that's the real question. When push comes to shove I have no doubt it will get used. Focus will move from the Euro, won't be long before it moves to the UK.
There isn't any bazooka that can solve the Spanish unemployment problem, except perhaps a literal one.

Mermaid

12,490 posts

40 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
HundredthIdiot said:
There isn't any bazooka that can solve the Spanish unemployment problem, except perhaps a literal one.
Spain's Olympics success so far, even with all these people with so much time on their hands.

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coyft

3,017 posts

80 months

[news] 
Wednesday 1st August 2012 quote quote all
HundredthIdiot said:
coyft said:
Bazooka or not, that's the real question. When push comes to shove I have no doubt it will get used. Focus will move from the Euro, won't be long before it moves to the UK.
There isn't any bazooka that can solve the Spanish unemployment problem, except perhaps a literal one.
I can think of a few, but solving unemployment won't save the Euro.
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