So we are in a recession then

[Adrian W]

Some company results came out this morning, I think it said Barclays and Shell doing brilliantly, but not one mention of UK manufacturing, they also said that 60% of our GDP come from retail, the only way out of this is to make and sell products here.

Something I read yesterday was that the Chinese are sub contracting to companies in the US to avoid punitive import tariffs; maybe our government should take their lead.

Something else I found out yesterday Apple pay no or very little tax in the UK or US, apparently they are registered in the Cayman islands, considering their sales, maybe if they don't pay tax here they shouldn't be allowed to sell here.

[speedy_thrills]

Adrian W said:

Something else I found out yesterday Apple pay no or very little tax in the UK or US, apparently they are registered in the Cayman islands, considering their sales, maybe if they don't pay tax here they shouldn't be allowed to sell here.

Are you suggesting companies should pay taxes within the countries they operate even if they are "based" in a tax haven? You awful socialist!

[markcoznottz]

martin84 said:

I understand your outlook completely. The 'wait and see' method is being practiced by most households and businesses at the moment, theres plenty of money there but nobody dare risk losing it by investing in anything or spending any of it. Unfortunately that in itself holds back any growth. The big question is what would convince somebody like yourself that spending your money is a less risky move?

How did we get out of the early 90's recession so smoothly?

[Adrian W]

markcoznottz said:

How did we get out of the early 90's recession so smoothly?

We made and sold stuff, there was also house building and massive investement in communications infastucture. none of which are happening now.

[s1962a]

speedy_thrills said:

Adrian W said:

Something else I found out yesterday Apple pay no or very little tax in the UK or US, apparently they are registered in the Cayman islands, considering their sales, maybe if they don't pay tax here they shouldn't be allowed to sell here.

Are you suggesting companies should pay taxes within the countries they operate even if they are "based" in a tax haven? You awful socialist!

Surely we collect the 20% VAT on products they sell in this country, or is there a loophole to that as well?

[CommanderJameson]

I think it's high time to get some serious road infrastructure built, starting with the A1 having at least three uninterrupted lanes from South Mimms to Edinburgh.

Not that I've got a vested interest in the existence of such a road, mind you. Absolutely not. No sir.

[oyster]

HardToLove said:

oyster said:

Serious question - what economic indicators made it obvious?

You seem to know very little on this subject ,this may help you .
http://economics.about.com/cs/businesscycles/a/eco...

I'm referring to the purchasing managers' index which is published each month. For Feb and March in services it was booming, and remeber services account for 70% of the economy. Also for Feb and March manufacturing was in fairly healthy growth according to these surveys.

This is why economists were not forecast a fall in GDP.

I guess either January was very, very bad. Or else the other sectors, like construction, tanked so heavily they brought down the other 80% of the economy that was actually growing.

I'm not saying the economy is booming - it's not. It's pretty flat. I'm just not convinced that yesterday's figures will stand up after the 2 further revisions.

[oyster]

markcoznottz said:

oyster said:

That's fine for you, but what part of the economy are you stimulating by your spending restraint?

If people had more of thier earnings left over after tax they might spend more. How did businesses manage pre boom I think consumers were less frivalous but shops seemed to stay oPen?.

Having more left after tax is a very valid point.

[Adrian W]

CommanderJameson said:

I think it's high time to get some serious road infrastructure built, starting with the A1 having at least three uninterrupted lanes from South Mimms to Edinburgh.

Not that I've got a vested interest in the existence of such a road, mind you. Absolutely not. No sir.

That sounds good, escecially if I got a contract to do the electronic signs

[fido]

Adrian W said:

Something else I found out yesterday Apple pay no or very little tax in the UK or US, apparently they are registered in the Cayman islands, considering their sales, maybe if they don't pay tax here they shouldn't be allowed to sell here.

Corporation tax perhaps. But the manufacturing is mostly abroad (in China), and the sales are in their respective countries. The thousands of employees will be paying income tax (wherever they work) and Apple will only have to pay Corporation tax on their net profits. Good for them, if they play within the rules and can avoid paying unneccesary taxes. If only the UK had an Apple.

Edited by fido on Thursday 26th April 11:29

[oyster]

Adrian W said:

markcoznottz said:

How did we get out of the early 90's recession so smoothly?

We made and sold stuff, there was also house building and massive investement in communications infastucture. none of which are happening now.

And what were the levels of personal, business and government debt at the end of the 1990-91 recession? Were they lower or higher than today in percentage terms?

The reason companies, individuals and governments can't spend now is because they binged between 2000 and 2007.

[HardToLove]

markcoznottz said:

How did we get out of the early 90's recession so smoothly?

Well one major factor the banks were falling over themselves to lend! try & get funding now.

Oyster

oyster said:

I'm referring to the purchasing managers' index which is published each month. For Feb and March in services it was booming, and remeber services account for 70% of the economy. Also for Feb and March manufacturing was in fairly healthy growth according to these surveys.

This is why economists were not forecast a fall in GDP.

I guess either January was very, very bad. Or else the other sectors, like construction, tanked so heavily they brought down the other 80% of the economy that was actually growing.

I'm not saying the economy is booming - it's not. It's pretty flat. I'm just not convinced that yesterday's figures will stand up after the 2 further revisions.

US figures beat expectation again and Ben Bernanke has confirmed hes ready in the wings with the fed to support further growth. Continued growth strategy in the US is soaking up any slight bits of negativity from what i have read this morning.

Cameron is being led by the nose by Osbourne & shot himself in the foot when he said " There is no plan "B".
Osbourne's paper theory is not working out in real terms, the US seem to be doing something right , such as stimulating growth ,creating jobs etc.
This lot need to stop helping the very Rich with tax cuts ,stop helping the Long term benefit leachs & concentrate on the ordinary middle folk like us the tax burdened middle. We need a vat cut, we need the banks to offer favourable loans, we need the Gov to start investing in the road infrastructure & reinstate the public school building program to get this economy moving back into growth. It does seem as though they are throwing in as many policy's as possible in to short a time,which makes them look inadequate as they are proving to be not well thought out at all. For instance as I mentioned the public building programs that they have severely cut back on, thousands of construction job's gone ,including many architects,surveyors, quantity surveyors etc going bust.When you say this the response is "We have relaxed the planning regulations to stimulate growth" are they serious ?? Not to mention the complete farce budget where Ozzy decided to over tax the developing oil fields in the North Sea to which Statoil Norways largest oil company stopped Exploratory drilling & production immediately,which made Ozzy have to U turn on that one the complete berk! Phew out of breath after that rant...

Edited by HardToLove on Thursday 26th April 12:16

[frosted]

fido said:

Corporation tax perhaps. But the manufacturing is mostly abroad (in China), and the sales are in their respective countries. The thousands of employees will be paying income tax (wherever they work) and Apple will only have to pay Corporation tax on their net profits. Good for them, if they play within the rules and can avoid paying unneccesary taxes. If only the UK had an Apple.

Edited by fido on Thursday 26th April 11:29

I like it, basically let middle England which can't avoid taxes pay for the rich,the poor and keep this country going

[sleep envy]

oyster said:

I guess either January was very, very bad. Or else the other sectors, like construction, tanked so heavily they brought down the other 80% of the economy that was actually growing.

Construction is in an 18/24 month lag - a number of the large companies are struggling to find new work so are laying people off.

[frosted]

sleep envy said:

Construction is in an 18/24 month lag - a number of the large companies are struggling to find new work so are laying people off.

Is that because a new 1bedroom apartment in Wandsworth starts at 350k ffs ?

[AJS-]

How would you fund it?

And don't you realise that if the government borrows more, there is less for the private sector to borrow?

[sleep envy]

frosted said:

Is that because a new 1bedroom apartment in Wandsworth starts at 350k ffs ?

That's more to do with punters paying the asking rather than the developers.

It's a vicious circle for the contractors at the moment. Developers are slowly putting schemes out to the market but contractors have to be particularly choosy what they bid for as their tendering depts have been severely pared back, they can't deal with the volume of tenders that they could 2/3 years ago (plus they don't have the spare cash to throw lots of resource at work they only have an outside chance of winning).

Which means they reduce their opportunity to win, which means their turnover reduces, etc, etc.

We're also seeing contractors make bids with a ridiculously low level of profit in it for them - which does concern us as we can't gauge if they'll stay solvent for the duration of the build.

Pretty much everyone in my office has at least one scheme with a liquidised contractor or is having budget issues as the contractor is making a loss.

If you're sat on a pile of cash and/or land...

[mondeoman]

How many times can a dropped ball bounce?

Thats where we are now - massive high, big drop, couple of bounces more before we get back on track.

Its like having an under damped spring on a car.

[anonymous-user]

egor110 said:

You say we need consumers to spend, that's what got us in this mess though, consumers spending money they didn't have on things they didn't need.

There are very few things people need, compared to what they'd like.

My only debt is a 60k mortgage but there's no way i'd buy a new car or spend money on things i don't need as if a few months down the line i'm laid off i'd find that money useful.

Whilst I agree with some of your comments, I don't think I could live my life thinking I can't do certain things in case I get made redundant in the future.

[fido]

frosted said:

I like it, basically let middle England which can't avoid taxes pay for the rich,the poor and keep this country going

Yep, it's a great idea isn't it - companies like Apple that create jobs (income tax) and sells products (20% VAT) and keep the respective economies chugging along. Whilst the whingers carry on arguing about their 'share' of the cake. Having a job in itself doesn't create wealth - the millions of non-jobs created by Incapability Brown are a testament to that.