Bugger, now Australia is getting affected -world economy

Bugger, now Australia is getting affected -world economy

Author
Discussion

robm3

Original Poster:

4,930 posts

228 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Lots of mining projects getting cancelled at the moment, and our dollar starting to slide.
Basically on the back of revised China growth projects and a predicted commodity slump.
Lots of stories starting to emerge now;

http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/economy/where-i...

http://www.smh.com.au/business/weak-australian-eco...

I had hoped we'd be fairly immune by hooking our cart to the Asian mules..

On a positive note we're a handful of weeks from winter and had our best May sun and rain wise since records began (8.5 hours of sun per day, temps of 22).



Edited by robm3 on Monday 21st May 01:54

Bibbs

3,733 posts

211 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Don't panic, I'm sure us out west will drag you along smile

Colonial

13,553 posts

206 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Bibbs said:
Don't panic, I'm sure us out west will drag you along smile
Not if there is a collapse in mining wink

Bibbs

3,733 posts

211 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Colonial said:
Not if there is a collapse in mining wink
Shh, don't be silly. It's full steam ahead here. wink

powerstroke

10,283 posts

161 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Colonial said:
Bibbs said:
Don't panic, I'm sure us out west will drag you along smile
Not if there is a collapse in mining wink
I would play it safe!!! invest any spare cash in Euros yikes

ringram

14,700 posts

249 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
ignore the short term ups and downs thats what savings are for.
longer term things look positive in emerging markets, much more opportunities for growth.
Compare that with Greece where nobody is interested in working, how much growth do you think there is there?
Compared to say Vietnam or Myanmar
That means they will want raw materials..

Eric Mc

122,071 posts

266 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
I've been waiting for the Aussie crash for years - ever since I saw that fly on the wall show "Sylvanian Waters", in fact.

RichardD

3,560 posts

246 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
When I was there last year there were some nearby houses mid build. The speed that the typical huge Aussie bungalow could be bashed together was quite surprising (but not as surprising as the price (especially with 7% interest rates) !).

Driving through residential areas I was told many times of good "investments" for my "Euros" (banghead) hehe

The local free paper contained multi page ads for new public sector jobs, plus the odd six figure potential for whatever you call an Aussie estate agent.

Having to endure a trip through a shopping centre the blatency of the "made in China" tags on garments that were being sold for AUD100 + too was another eek to my Yorkshire'ness...


Eric Mc

122,071 posts

266 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Sounds like a classic consumer bubble to me.

fido

16,809 posts

256 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
I hope this doesn't adversely affect SW London house prices .. or at least not the bit i'm trying to get out of.

toppstuff

13,698 posts

248 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Long term, China is looking to open up its vast land and get better at digging up their own commodities.

They are heading west from the coast, building railways and making plans. They have lots of natural resources untouched.

No idea if the Chinese plan is to plunder Australia before they dig locally, but over the next 10 years or so they could well be getting a lot more from their own country.

XB70

2,482 posts

197 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Eric Mc said:
I've been waiting for the Aussie crash for years - ever since I saw that fly on the wall show "Sylvanian Waters", in fact.
Not 'Chances'?

  • anyone from Oz in that period will know the show*

excel monkey

4,545 posts

228 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Eric Mc said:
I've been waiting for the Aussie crash for years - ever since I saw that fly on the wall show "Sylvanian Waters", in fact.
Hard to believe that show first went out 20 years ago!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylvania_Waters_(TV_s...

Eric Mc

122,071 posts

266 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
excel monkey said:
Eric Mc said:
I've been waiting for the Aussie crash for years - ever since I saw that fly on the wall show "Sylvanian Waters", in fact.
Hard to believe that show first went out 20 years ago!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylvania_Waters_(TV_s...
It surprised me. I would have said between 10 to 13 years ago.

pilchardthecat

7,483 posts

180 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Just wait till their housing crash kicks off properly

this is just a small side effect of the chinese mercantilist over-capacity bubble beginning to burst

smack

9,729 posts

192 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
I see parallels what Australia has been going through to what has happened in the UK the last 25 years. Thanks to a strong currency, local manufacturing has been shutting up shop, and Aussies have been going on a spending spree with the money going overseas on goods and services. The tourism industry is having a hard time, as it is an expensive place to holiday for foreigners (forget the days of 3 dollars to the pound), long haul flights are no longer dirt cheap as they used to be, and for the locals going overseas is a cheaper holiday than at home - which they have been doing in greater numbers than ever before.

Cost of living has risen greatly for the man on the street - I have family and friends there, I hear it from them and see it first hand visiting over the years).
Throw in a government that likes to create more and more red tape for business (then again historically all Australian politicians like creating rules and regulation..), so the cost of business keeps on going up, and they are happy to milk the mining boom for all it is worth, not caring about all the other industries and companies that have taken decades to become world competitive with their products now have lost any price edge they ever had.

Pommygranite

14,268 posts

217 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
We're a good 3-5 from a bust. There's a shed load of cash about, large amounts of cash savings with many having paid down debt and literally thousands of resources jobs.

Ignore the. Panic, it's just the newspapers,unless you live east then you're screwed wink

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa-threat-to-split...

"There is not an understanding on the east coast how significant the growth of the WA economy is," he said.

"The WA economy is growing at quite a different pace than Australia as a whole and to some extent the strength of the WA economy is concealing the true weakness of the national economy.

"One statistic proves that.

"In the last 12 months there were 50,000 new jobs created in WA.

"China is now Australia's No.1 trading partner (but) WA produces 73 per cent of all of Australia's exports to China.

"To put it in another context, exports from WA to China are about half of the value of all of the USA's exports to China."

Pommygranite

14,268 posts

217 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Ps I hope there's a property crash before December as im hoping to buy then!

AJS-

15,366 posts

237 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
From a lot of Aussies I've spoken to, most of the east coast has been pretty slow for a few years and most of the growth is commodity driven.

I wouldn't worry though, you've got about 10 years of slump and stagnation to go to catch up with England.

pilchardthecat

7,483 posts

180 months

Monday 21st May 2012
quotequote all
Pommygranite said:
We're a good 3-5 from a bust. There's a shed load of cash about, large amounts of cash savings with many having paid down debt and literally thousands of resources jobs.

Ignore the. Panic, it's just the newspapers,unless you live east then you're screwed wink

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa-threat-to-split...

"There is not an understanding on the east coast how significant the growth of the WA economy is," he said.

"The WA economy is growing at quite a different pace than Australia as a whole and to some extent the strength of the WA economy is concealing the true weakness of the national economy.

"One statistic proves that.

"In the last 12 months there were 50,000 new jobs created in WA.

"China is now Australia's No.1 trading partner (but) WA produces 73 per cent of all of Australia's exports to China.

"To put it in another context, exports from WA to China are about half of the value of all of the USA's exports to China."
Misses the point. Almost all of those exports are raw materials, which China needs to build things to sell to the Americans.

China's mercantilist strategy places them at the mercy of American consumerism, and they will suffer for it. Australia is one step lower in the supply chain, and is even more vulnerable.