Iran lawmakers prepare to close the Strait of Hormuz

[Art0ir]

Jimbeaux said:

Are you being serious? If they wish to halt oil to Europe, don't sell it to European nations or load it on their tankers. Closing an international waterway is an act of war, not sanctions.
There are other nations that sell oil and use the Strait.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Tuesday 3rd July 14:53

Arguably economic sanctions are an act of war no?

[Asterix]

Forced diplomacy my dear friends. Not an act of war...

[TheHeretic]

Jimbeaux said:

Are you being serious? If they wish to halt oil to Europe, don't sell it to European nations or load it on their tankers. Closing an international waterway is an act of war, not sanctions.
There are other nations that sell oil and use the Strait.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Tuesday 3rd July 14:53

That stick you have, you appear to be holding the wrong end. I never said they were right to do anything, or that I supported them. Just telling you what I read.

[Mermaid]

Asterix said:

Forced diplomacy my dear friends. Not an act of war...

A formal political alliance between Russia/Iran/Syria? The new cold war.

[Asterix]

Mermaid said:

Asterix said:

Forced diplomacy my dear friends. Not an act of war...

A formal political alliance between Russia/Iran/Syria? The new cold war.

Unless China get involved there's little to worry about if it actually came to fisticuffs. While there's plenty of money floating about in Russia, not much of it ends up at the pointy end. I'll try and dig up some links later but by all accounts, large scale mobilisation of Russian forces would see most of them break down yards outside the barrack gates.

Syria - no-one cares. The far more powerful GCC states can't stand them beacuse of the Iran links and they will never lift a finger over and above symbolic politics, and the west are just making the correct noises.

Iran - Possibly the most likely to go 'ballistic' but I'd wager that the US are just waiting for an excuse to crush them and would probably be happy losing a ship or two in sacrifice for the justification to go ape.

[Jimbeaux]

Guam said:

Jimbeaux said:

Are you being serious? If they wish to halt oil to Europe, don't sell it to European nations or load it on their tankers. Closing an international waterway is an act of war, not sanctions.

Come on Jim it's only an act of war if you guys or us do it lol

Its fair play if anyone else does it. Like invading the Falklands wasnt really an act of war it was liberation by the Argies lol.

If cynicism was an energy source, we'd be set!

Edited by Jimbeaux on Tuesday 3rd July 15:25

[Jimbeaux]

Art0ir said:

Jimbeaux said:

Are you being serious? If they wish to halt oil to Europe, don't sell it to European nations or load it on their tankers. Closing an international waterway is an act of war, not sanctions.
There are other nations that sell oil and use the Strait.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Tuesday 3rd July 14:53

Arguably economic sanctions are an act of war no?

Could be, so could farting in a closed room I suppose. A sanction is an act agreed upon by those participating in the sanctions. Closing an international waterway inhibits others who may not be participating in none of this. See the difference?

[Jimbeaux]

TheHeretic said:

Jimbeaux said:

Are you being serious? If they wish to halt oil to Europe, don't sell it to European nations or load it on their tankers. Closing an international waterway is an act of war, not sanctions.
There are other nations that sell oil and use the Strait.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Tuesday 3rd July 14:53

That stick you have, you appear to be holding the wrong end. I never said they were right to do anything, or that I supported them. Just telling you what I read.

I understand, sorry if I appeared to pounce on you.

[TheHeretic]

A bit like Cuba then, punishing countries who did business with them?

[Jimbeaux]

Asterix said:

Mermaid said:

Asterix said:

Forced diplomacy my dear friends. Not an act of war...

A formal political alliance between Russia/Iran/Syria? The new cold war.

Unless China get involved there's little to worry about if it actually came to fisticuffs. While there's plenty of money floating about in Russia, not much of it ends up at the pointy end. I'll try and dig up some links later but by all accounts, large scale mobilisation of Russian forces would see most of them break down yards outside the barrack gates.

Syria - no-one cares. The far more powerful GCC states can't stand them beacuse of the Iran links and they will never lift a finger over and above symbolic politics, and the west are just making the correct noises.

Iran - Possibly the most likely to go 'ballistic' but I'd wager that the US are just waiting for an excuse to crush them and would probably be happy losing a ship or two in sacrifice for the justification to go ape.

You say China, but remember, they have virtually no ships to bring their army to bear. Now, if they want to test their air force, or the swimming ability of their soldiers, that is another thing. On a serious note, I mostly agree with your statement.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Tuesday 3rd July 15:26

[Jimbeaux]

TheHeretic said:

A bit like Cuba then, punishing countries who did business with them?

Don't lose sight of the point, closing an international waterway.

[TheHeretic]

Jimbeaux said:

TheHeretic said:

A bit like Cuba then, punishing countries who did business with them?

Don't lose sight of the point, closing an international waterway.

It's not really, but it's like an embargo against the countries on the list, not dissimilar to the Cuba Embargo, just with different geographical issues.

[Asterix]

Jimbeaux said:

Asterix said:

Mermaid said:

Asterix said:

Forced diplomacy my dear friends. Not an act of war...

A formal political alliance between Russia/Iran/Syria? The new cold war.

Unless China get involved there's little to worry about if it actually came to fisticuffs. While there's plenty of money floating about in Russia, not much of it ends up at the pointy end. I'll try and dig up some links later but by all accounts, large scale mobilisation of Russian forces would see most of them break down yards outside the barrack gates.

Syria - no-one cares. The far more powerful GCC states can't stand them beacuse of the Iran links and they will never lift a finger over and above symbolic politics, and the west are just making the correct noises.

Iran - Possibly the most likely to go 'ballistic' but I'd wager that the US are just waiting for an excuse to crush them and would probably be happy losing a ship or two in sacrifice for the justification to go ape.

You say China, but remember, they have virtually no ships to bring their army to bear. Now, if they want to test their air force, or the swimming ability of their soldiers, that is another thing.

They wouldn't do anything in the Middle East - If they got involved in this alliance with Russia, they'd concentrate on teh Asian theatre and start applying hard military pressure to South Korea, Taiwan - perhaps Japan, Singapore etc... They'd divide/reduce our resources from those in the Middle East and thos that support the countries along Russia's western borders.

All guess work on my part but I think it makes sense.

There's also the economic pressure China could bring to bear on the West and the US in particular if it really wanted to.

Edited by Asterix on Tuesday 3rd July 15:30

[Jimbeaux]

TheHeretic said:

Jimbeaux said:

TheHeretic said:

A bit like Cuba then, punishing countries who did business with them?

Don't lose sight of the point, closing an international waterway.

It's not really, but it's like an embargo against the countries on the list, not dissimilar to the Cuba Embargo, just with different geographical issues.

How is closing an international waterway, that is used by uninvolved countries, simply an embargo against countries "on their list". Again, why not simply refuse to sell them oil? Iran cannot close a water highway to other exporting nations. If it does, that is Iran's choice but it will be others' choices as to what is done about it as they will be fair game.

[Jimbeaux]

Asterix said:

Jimbeaux said:

Asterix said:

Mermaid said:

Asterix said:

Forced diplomacy my dear friends. Not an act of war...

A formal political alliance between Russia/Iran/Syria? The new cold war.

Unless China get involved there's little to worry about if it actually came to fisticuffs. While there's plenty of money floating about in Russia, not much of it ends up at the pointy end. I'll try and dig up some links later but by all accounts, large scale mobilisation of Russian forces would see most of them break down yards outside the barrack gates.

Syria - no-one cares. The far more powerful GCC states can't stand them beacuse of the Iran links and they will never lift a finger over and above symbolic politics, and the west are just making the correct noises.

Iran - Possibly the most likely to go 'ballistic' but I'd wager that the US are just waiting for an excuse to crush them and would probably be happy losing a ship or two in sacrifice for the justification to go ape.

You say China, but remember, they have virtually no ships to bring their army to bear. Now, if they want to test their air force, or the swimming ability of their soldiers, that is another thing.

They wouldn't do anything in the Middle East - If they got involved in this alliance with Russia, they'd concentrate on teh Asian theatre and start applying hard military pressure to South Korea, Taiwan - perhaps Japan, Singapore etc... They'd divide/reduce our resources from those in the Middle East and thos that support the countries along Russia's western borders.

All guess work on my part but I think it makes sense.

There's also the economic pressure China could bring to bear on the West and the US in particular if it really wanted to.

Edited by Asterix on Tuesday 3rd July 15:30

I see your point and agree with your argument about the military part. As to economic pressure on the West, I don't fully agree. China needs the West just as badly.

[TheHeretic]

OK then Jim.
Cuban embargo = good
Hormuz closure to goods to certain countries = Bad.

Gotcha.

[Mermaid]

Jimbeaux said:

.. Iran cannot close a water highway to other exporting nations. If it does, that is Iran's choice but it will be others' choices as to what is done about it as they will be fair game.

I cannot recall exactly but what was the situation with the Turkish vessel near Israeli waters a few years ago... serious question.

[TheHeretic]

Mermaid said:

I cannot recall exactly but what was the situation with the Turkish vessel near Israeli waters a few years ago... serious question.

The one Israel attacked?

[Art0ir]

Jimbeaux said:

Could be, so could farting in a closed room I suppose. A sanction is an act agreed upon by those participating in the sanctions. Closing an international waterway inhibits others who may not be participating in none of this. See the difference?

Not really no.

What have the Iranian people done to deserve the effects economic sanctions are having on them? Iran's shipping industry is on the absolute brink because they're struggling to get insurance thanks to sanctions.

How many wars have Iran started in the last few centuries?

[Mermaid]

Art0ir said:

What have the Iranian people done to deserve the effects economic sanctions are having on them? Iran's shipping industry is on the absolute brink because they're struggling to get insurance thanks to sanctions.

How many wars have Iran started in the last few centuries?

The strange thing is the Iranians will be left well alone once they have the nuke, no need for sanctions too.