bloody weather!

[kerplunk]

turbobloke said:

Maybe or maybe not the point concerned the climate or indeed weather equivalent of the broken watch thing. If you wait, then at some point it will be right - but for the wrong reasons.

Sure I get the stopped clock anaolgy, but the question in that context is: are stopped clock events happening more often?

That's a slightly different thing because trends are possibly indicative of a cause (eg. a warming world) and not chaotic behaviour.

[Apache]

kerplunk said:

turbobloke said:

Maybe or maybe not the point concerned the climate or indeed weather equivalent of the broken watch thing. If you wait, then at some point it will be right - but for the wrong reasons.

Sure I get the stopped clock anaolgy, but the question in that context is: are stopped clock events happening more often?

That's a slightly different thing because trends are possibly indicative of a cause (eg. a warming world) and not chaotic behaviour.

That's a bit of a stretch isn't it?

First off do we have any way of showing 'extreme weather' to be increasing in a way that hasn't been seen in the past?
If we do, could it be attributed to something?
Finally, is that 'something' caused by man?

There's a long way to go before we start beating ourselves up over a stty summer plunkers

[BliarOut]

kerplunk said:

fido said:

On the subject of records, is this just a monthly record? I read somewhere that 1912 was one of the wettest summers (recorded) and we aren't anywhere near that yet. Can any historians shed light on this?

The reports I've read say this year April and June were record wettest, and the April/May/June period was also the wettest on record.

In 2007 it was the wettest June (at the time) and the wettest May/June/July period.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting...

The 'record' they cite from is one that starts in 1914 but there's an interesting footnote on that page:

There is also an historic monthly rainfall series for England and Wales, from 1766, which is an homogenous series based on selected station data. In this series, the total for May-July 2007 was 415.1 mm exceeding the previous May-July record by over 60 mm. The previous record was 349.1 mm in May-July 1789.

The 'summer' record would be the JJA period.

They didn't have mm back then

A lot of this flooding is extremely localised and caused by blocked drains, building on floodplains and block paved driveways. No soakaways y'see

Our local stream is still about 3 feet below the peak I saw it at and that was about twenty years ago.

[Jasandjules]

thinfourth2 said:

So temps drop then it is a natural weather cycles

but when they go up it is global we are all going to die unless you give all your money to the government warming

[BliarOut]

Weather... Never visit the IOM Plunky, you can have bright sunshine, rain, mist and snow in a single lap of the TT course.

[deeps]

kerplunk said:

So I've an unquestioning mind for asking a question. ok

Your take on CO2 is rather unconventional but it appears you think the world is warming (or CO2 wouldn't be going up) which begs the question - are predictions of more weather extremes coming true as a result.

Back to square one.

No I didn't say you have an unquestioning mind, but I do believe many that believe the hype do. Like all good scams, it has to be plausible on the surface. Those that don't look any deeper will simply accept it.

It stands to reason that the world has warmed since the LIA and CO2 has followed temperature, with a lag as it does.

I live on the sea front, and this year my windows have been splattered with seagull poo more frequently (every day) than any other year I can remember. It's been even more breezy than usual due to all these low pressure systems, and the gulls love to line up along the sea front and just lazily float in the wind for hours on end, they're even doing it now at 4am, which begs the question, is this extreme of window splattering pooing due to MMGW?

Sorry, i'm being faecestious

[turbobloke]

I see what you did there...

[nelly1]

Newly found weather records show 1930′s as being far worse than the present for extreme weather...

[turbobloke]

comment said:

If July 1936 happened this year… To quote Bart Simpson…. so many folks in the climate science community would ‘have a cow’.

[nelly1]

Another Comment said:

Yes, yes, all of this is mildly interesting, but highly premature until the older records have undergone the proper “adjustments”.

[turbobloke]

[kerplunk]

Apache said:

kerplunk said:

turbobloke said:

Maybe or maybe not the point concerned the climate or indeed weather equivalent of the broken watch thing. If you wait, then at some point it will be right - but for the wrong reasons.

Sure I get the stopped clock anaolgy, but the question in that context is: are stopped clock events happening more often?

That's a slightly different thing because trends are possibly indicative of a cause (eg. a warming world) and not chaotic behaviour.

That's a bit of a stretch isn't it?

First off do we have any way of showing 'extreme weather' to be increasing in a way that hasn't been seen in the past?
If we do, could it be attributed to something?
Finally, is that 'something' caused by man?

There's a long way to go before we start beating ourselves up over a stty summer plunkers

All good questions and not that dissimilar to what I'm asking.

The heavy uk rainfall study posted by Catweazle looks a good way to go - it'd be nice to see that brought up to date.

[turbobloke]

Heavy UK daily winter rainfall correlates well with solar cycles. UEA CRU had data and a plot online until this was pointed out. In summer it correlates with the number of BBQs planned.

[kerplunk]

Guam said:

kerplunk said:

Got any data about heavy precipitation trends in the UK?

Nice Gotcha question lol
Given the Environment agency doesnt have them any longer in a complete form <I did this for personal reasons with the floods we had in our office>
Then extracting accurate data is near impossible
Plus Weather is NOT climate right? lol

Much of the precipitation Data was collected by volunteers who over the years have dropped out.
Taking Peterborough alone there are significant gaps in data collection in the last 20 years.

However as I said its weather not climate <Ask Ludo>

Trends are arguably climate (as in the statistics of weather) but I don't really care much what we call it

[kerplunk]

nelly1 said:

Newly found weather records show 1930′s as being far worse than the present for extreme weather...

Inaccurate title - the nineties has the most state records for 24hr rainfall highs (but naturally they're focussed on temps in the states while we're watching the rain gauges!):

2000s - IIII
1990s - IIIIIIIIII
1980s - IIIIIII
1970s - IIIIIII
1960s - IIIIIII
1950s - IIIII
1940s - III
1930s - II
1920s - I
1910s - II
1900s - III
1890s - I

[turbobloke]

Also if the manmadeup heat is meant to be part of 'hotter therefore wetter' how come the rainfall isn't peaking in the 30s or just after in terms of the heat? But then tax gas emissions and levels for the 30s represent another fail.

We know the answer, which relates to bunk built on junk.

[kerplunk]

Guam said:

So is the new mantra that Heatwavees are no longer "Extreme" weather events? only winds <sorry better leave those out eh> or preciptation are?

Eh? No. The title is inaccurate because, of the 5 new datasets of weather extremes (covering temperatures/rain/snowfall), only one (Tmax) was worst in the thirties.

[kerplunk]

Guam said:

kerplunk said:

Eh? No. The title is inaccurate because, of the 5 new datasets of weather extremes (covering temperatures/rain/snowfall), only one (Tmax) was worst in the thirties.

The point from what I recall of that, was it was used purely for the heatwave issue in the original article from which it came <unless I am thinking of a different source article in which case I apologise>.


That being said apart from the general inadvisability of linear trend analysis in a chaotic non linear atmosphere <a statistical criticism since this whole nonsense began>. The topic is well covered on other threads. also none of it relates directly to the current UK weather given the shift in the jetstream <although arguably the mirror effect may well be the current heatwave in the US>

So any UK precipitation trends <even if one could accept the viability of them statiscally> would be pointless due to the shift in a major variable and its current impacts

yep I agree this jet-stream business adds to the puzzle, but having good info on trends is never pointless.

[thinfourth2]

kerplunk said:

yep I agree this jet-stream business adds to the puzzle, but having good info on trends is never pointless.

Depends on what you define as good is

[kerplunk]

woohoo! Signs of some settled weather finally in the South soon (sorry northerners).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook