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Guam
15,454 posts
137 months
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kerplunk said: Trends are arguably climate (as in the statistics of weather) but I don't really care much what we call it  You really want to go there on Trends? Seriously? I would redirect you to the masses of posts and links of statistical origin on the earlier threads before doing so For a humourous interlude on the nonsense that usually appears on trends, here is something I posted last year Worth a read http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=4423
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turbobloke
55,495 posts
129 months
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Also if the manmadeup heat is meant to be part of 'hotter therefore wetter' how come the rainfall isn't peaking in the 30s or just after in terms of the heat? But then tax gas emissions and levels for the 30s represent another fail.
We know the answer, which relates to bunk built on junk.
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kerplunk
2,942 posts
75 months
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Guam said: So is the new mantra that Heatwavees are no longer "Extreme" weather events? only winds <sorry better leave those out eh> or preciptation are? Eh? No. The title is inaccurate because, of the 5 new datasets of weather extremes (covering temperatures/rain/snowfall), only one (Tmax) was worst in the thirties.
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Guam
15,454 posts
137 months
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kerplunk said: Eh? No. The title is inaccurate because, of the 5 new datasets of weather extremes (covering temperatures/rain/snowfall), only one (Tmax) was worst in the thirties. The point from what I recall of that, was it was used purely for the heatwave issue in the original article from which it came <unless I am thinking of a different source article in which case I apologise>. That being said apart from the general inadvisability of linear trend analysis in a chaotic non linear atmosphere <a statistical criticism since this whole nonsense began>. The topic is well covered on other threads. also none of it relates directly to the current UK weather given the shift in the jetstream <although arguably the mirror effect may well be the current heatwave in the US> So any UK precipitation trends <even if one could accept the viability of them statiscally> would be pointless due to the shift in a major variable and its current impacts
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kerplunk
2,942 posts
75 months
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Guam said: kerplunk said: Eh? No. The title is inaccurate because, of the 5 new datasets of weather extremes (covering temperatures/rain/snowfall), only one (Tmax) was worst in the thirties. The point from what I recall of that, was it was used purely for the heatwave issue in the original article from which it came <unless I am thinking of a different source article in which case I apologise>. That being said apart from the general inadvisability of linear trend analysis in a chaotic non linear atmosphere <a statistical criticism since this whole nonsense began>. The topic is well covered on other threads. also none of it relates directly to the current UK weather given the shift in the jetstream <although arguably the mirror effect may well be the current heatwave in the US> So any UK precipitation trends <even if one could accept the viability of them statiscally> would be pointless due to the shift in a major variable and its current impacts yep I agree this jet-stream business adds to the puzzle, but having good info on trends is never pointless.
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thinfourth2
23,611 posts
73 months
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kerplunk said: yep I agree this jet-stream business adds to the puzzle, but having good info on trends is never pointless. Depends on what you define as good is
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Guam
15,454 posts
137 months
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kerplunk said: yep I agree this jet-stream business adds to the puzzle, but having good info on trends is never pointless. It is for the purposes of comparative analysis against previous years, unless you could identify previous years where the jetstream had moved and undertake some analysis against that. Anything else done would be pointless as a significant variable had changed. Anyone attempting to pin current weather to global warming, Human induced climate change etc, is in mathematical terms talking utter tripe <technical term>. Also trends in themeselves cant tell you very much in a chaotic environment, as the whole thing is non linear <something we have discussed at length on the other threads> if the climate changes in steps <consistent with chaos theory>, then a time series analysis is not going to help you very much in predicting when that shift to a new state of equilibrium will occur. All of which however is not weather and the thread is about weather.
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kerplunk
2,942 posts
75 months
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mondeoman
6,798 posts
135 months
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Yeah, but
Whens the sun coming back out to play?
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turbobloke
55,495 posts
129 months
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unrepentant
14,411 posts
125 months
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Guam said: kerplunk said: Inaccurate title - the nineties has the most state records for 24hr rainfall highs (but naturally they're focussed on temps in the states while we're watching the rain gauges!):
2000s - IIII
1990s - IIIIIIIIII
1980s - IIIIIII
1970s - IIIIIII
1960s - IIIIIII
1950s - IIIII
1940s - III
1930s - II
1920s - I
1910s - II
1900s - III
1890s - I So is the new mantra that Heatwavees are no longer "Extreme" weather events? only winds <sorry better leave those out eh> or preciptation are? All I can tell you is this. It hasn't rained at my house since May, we have broken temp records seemingly every day this summer and we are now in a state of emergency along with 25 other states. It's hot and dry and we have a total ban on using water for lawns, car washing, drive washing etc.. My lawn is dark brown and so is everyone else's. This is not "normal".
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Guam
15,454 posts
137 months
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unrepentant said: All I can tell you is this. It hasn't rained at my house since May, we have broken temp records seemingly every day this summer and we are now in a state of emergency along with 25 other states. It's hot and dry and we have a total ban on using water for lawns, car washing, drive washing etc.. My lawn is dark brown and so is everyone else's. This is not "normal". Where in the UK is this dry weather?
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turbobloke
55,495 posts
129 months
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unrepentant said: All I can tell you is this. It hasn't rained at my house since May, we have broken temp records seemingly every day this summer and we are now in a state of emergency along with 25 other states. It's hot and dry and we have a total ban on using water for lawns, car washing, drive washing etc.. My lawn is dark brown and so is everyone else's. This is not "normal". It's normal variation rather than normal conditions.
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Guam
15,454 posts
137 months
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turbobloke said: It's normal variation rather than normal conditions. Its interesting how someones choice of words infers something in these circumstances Normal/Abnormal = something sinister at work, Typical/Untypical = variation in a norm Emotion in matters such as these is never helpful imho
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kerplunk
2,942 posts
75 months
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Guam
15,454 posts
137 months
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kerplunk said: Yes and we all take everything Hansenns mob says as Gospel now as they have such a cracking track record
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Guam
15,454 posts
137 months
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Can I Point out that there is a climate science thread in the Science section and these "global" discussions belong in there. This is a thread about UK local weather, further global type posts will be deleted so hotfoot it <deliberate Pun> to the Science thread and carry on the climate discussions in there Cheers
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kerplunk
2,942 posts
75 months
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turbobloke
55,495 posts
129 months
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Guam said: turbobloke said: It's normal variation rather than normal conditions. Its interesting how someones choice of words infers something in these circumstances Normal/Abnormal = something sinister at work, Typical/Untypical = variation in a norm Emotion in matters such as these is never helpful imho Detailed weather records and human lifespans each totalling a few tens of thousands of years would help. Any ideas?!
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deeps
4,214 posts
110 months
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unrepentant said: All I can tell you is this. It hasn't rained at my house since May, we have broken temp records seemingly every day this summer and we are now in a state of emergency along with 25 other states. It's hot and dry and we have a total ban on using water for lawns, car washing, drive washing etc.. My lawn is dark brown and so is everyone else's. This is not "normal". Extremes of normality are normal though. It hasn't stopped raining since May here and I've got the heating on in July! We had it like you in 1976 though, I remember walking round the local golf course as a lad, and all the grass was scorched dark brown.
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