The next bubble - what is it?

[johnfm]

Pommygranite said:

This. Their infrastructure spend is not necessarily about buildings, its about transport, utilities etc not just a mass of housing. Where do you think the natural resources will come from to produce the metals required? Africa, South America and pretty much WA and QLD in Australia.

My timing is crap as always. When I came out of Curtin in the early '90s with a Mech Eng degree, there was not much work and certainly no likelihood of $300k+ a year mine managers jobs.

So I came to the UK as a pro cricketer - about 20 years before IPL created a living for cricketers.

Bah!!

[Pommygranite]

HundredthIdiot said:

This might be a long one. Property bubbles tend to pop slowly as denial and market paralysis take hold.

How about Darwin average house prices down 30% on June 2012 levels in June 2015, according to the ABS:

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0

Would 30% off-peak in 3 years be a popped bubble? Don't know.

There's probably some more dynamic shorter term indicator like sales volumes, mortgage approvals, etc but I don't have a source for those to hand.

Sorry I was referring to the WA economy rather than solely property. I think that will slow down but it will depend on area rather than Australia as a whole.

However figures out today show a huge uplift recently. Now that's a probably just a bubble!

[MycroftWard]

HundredthIdiot said:

Nice to see prices are below the mean line now, cheap as chips mate.

[HundredthIdiot]

MycroftWard said:

Nice to see prices are below the mean line now, cheap as chips mate.

Everything is normal, nobody panic.

Actually, the standard bubble model falls apart once political manipulation sets in. Nobody wants to be the prick that pops it.

[deeen]

MycroftWard said:

HundredthIdiot said:

Nice to see prices are below the mean line now, cheap as chips mate.

Draw a line through the lows, to see where it's going?

[Mermaid]

Anyone mentioned debt?