European Equity market indices - can they get much worse?

[johnfm]

From circa Jan 2008:

Spain's Ibex was circa 16,000 in 2008. Now at 6700 (down 59 %)

Italy 40,000 to 14,000 ( down 65%)

Greece 5000 down to 600 (down 88%)

Portugal 13,000 down to 4700 (down 63%)

Germany 8000 to 6800 (down 15%)

France 5700 down to 3300 (down 42%)

OUCH - there is a hell of a flight from equity in the troubled Euro states.

Nikkei not looking too hot either.

I am guessing there will be some value to be had tracking some of these indices once the Euro dust has settled.

[GavinPearson]

Can they get worse? YES.

BBC World Service was talking about Greece being out of the Euro with Italy and France soon to follow. As each nation in Europe gets taken to the brink to stop the house of cards from falling there will be an economic contraction. Spending will be limited to bare essentials. Retailers of non food items will suffer. So will vehicle manufacturers, their suppliers, the defence industry. The airlines will suffer. Utilities and energy suppliers will be stable. Housebuilders will suffer. So overall, the indeces will fall.

On the positive side, now's a great time to liquidate assets ready to invest when the inevitable happens.

[johnfm]

It will be an interesting few years.

I can't see Greece bouncing back much TBH - not sure they have the depth of private enterprise to rebound.

Italy will though I reckon.

[jeff m2]

Everything moves in cycles.

The decisions are;
Sell low.....and get back in after the indices are already halfway back.
Hold and pray.

Or if not already involved, decide whether this is a good opportunity.

Personally I think so much rests on China. Emerging Asian market, Emerging European nations and Latin America are all dependent.
These markets are also down, but they do not have the massive debt of some of the European countries so could bounce back more easily.

I did not sell in 07/08/09 and things ended up ok.
This is just a blip compared to that. (so far)
Had more bonds this time round

[Fittster]

Are they really that cheap by P/E or Yield?

Using the FT freebie info:

Country	Yield	P/E
France	4.0	12.3
Germany	3.5	12.2
Spain	5.9	10.2
Greece	2.7	10
UK	3.6	11.1
US	2.2	15
Poland	4.8	8.4

Edited by Fittster on Wednesday 1st August 14:34

[jeff m2]

Fittster said:

Are they really that cheap by P/E or Yield?

Using the FT freebie info:

Country	Yield	P/E
France	4.0	12.3
Germany	3.5	12.2
Spain	5.9	10.2
Greece	2.7	10
UK	3.6	11.1
US	2.2	15
Poland	4.8	8.4

Edited by Fittster on Wednesday 1st August 14:34

It would take more than 5.9% to get me into Spain
P/E of 4 may do it.

[GT03ROB]

Fittster said:

Are they really that cheap by P/E or Yield?

Using the FT freebie info:

Country	Yield	P/E
France	4.0	12.3
Germany	3.5	12.2
Spain	5.9	10.2
Greece	2.7	10
UK	3.6	11.1
US	2.2	15
Poland	4.8	8.4

Edited by Fittster on Wednesday 1st August 14:34

So Poland it is then! Knew there was money in them Polish builders!