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davepoth

23,180 posts

84 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
So Mr. Romney wants to defund PBS...


Guam

21,761 posts

153 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
unrepentant said:
Rasmussen has been ouit of synch with the rest of the pollsters for most of the race. It is the only pollster that has shown Romney ahead at various times.

It is the official poll of the Rush Limbaugh show......................
Oh please you talk so much tripe, stay off the polls Stats is clearly not your strong point!

Its not about whose poll it is its about their methodology.

You will be telling me next you believe Gallups plus 12 in Obamas approval rating following the debate lol.

This is still in the MOE and is too close to call statistically <where it has been for weeks>, Funny how everyone went quiet on Florida, Ohio and one of the other battleground states in the last 48 hours? three of them now too close to call.

Btw the Jobs survey reportedly has an MOE of 400K I will await the stats hitters analysis on whether that drop is verified or not as well smile

Guam

21,761 posts

153 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
davepoth said:
So Mr. Romney wants to defund PBS...

Thats funny, I wonder how many extra votes Romney will pick up for that lol. I would pay to see that thing strangled smile

davepoth

23,180 posts

84 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
Guam said:
Thats funny, I wonder how many extra votes Romney will pick up for that lol. I would pay to see that thing strangled smile



Guam

21,761 posts

153 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
davepoth said:
rofl
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jeff m2

1,365 posts

36 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
Polls accuracy and sampling.

In the last six months my wife and I have been paid to do two polls, I have also been called once re Mitt and Mr O.

I don't think it is entirely random or we wouldn't have done two polls!

I am fairly sure I am not Mr Average, I'm not a citizen, I don't have 12 credit cards or a first and second mortgage.smile
We do have a highish credit rating, but you get that just by paying bills on time.

To save someone asking, first one $80 second one $10

unrepentant

Original Poster:

15,845 posts

141 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
Apart from Rasmussen all the polls have consistently showed Obama ahead and still do. I don't care what the MOE is, it's there for both parties and if the polls are all consistently one way common sense says that's the way it is. Willard has received a post debate bounce, less than I would have expected, but still a bounce. By Oct 25 all that bounce will have have gone back the other way.

Lost_BMW

12,955 posts

61 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
rohrl said:
Guam said:
Countdown said:
There's a reason why their indistinguishable from each other. It's because, on average, the centre appeals to the most people. I'd rather have the current mob than anybody who was more Tory or more Socialist.

Who would you rather have; centrist or hard-left?
I would rather have definition between parties, this way we get mediocrity on all sides imho!
Unless you want your preferred party to govern in perpetuity, effectively becoming a one-party state, you'd have to accept that maybe half the time you'll be governed by a party with whom you virulently disgree with about everything then rather than one with which you disagree with on some issues. Maybe the US needs a third credible party.
"USIP"?

rohrl

5,291 posts

30 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
jeff m2 said:
Polls accuracy and sampling.

In the last six months my wife and I have been paid to do two polls, I have also been called once re Mitt and Mr O.

I don't think it is entirely random or we wouldn't have done two polls!

I am fairly sure I am not Mr Average, I'm not a citizen, I don't have 12 credit cards or a first and second mortgage.smile
We do have a highish credit rating, but you get that just by paying bills on time.

To save someone asking, first one $80 second one $10
The pollsters don't look for 1000 or 2000 average people. If they're trying to predict the election they try to speak to a representative sample of the population.

I have noticed that some of the polls only sample 500 voters which does seem rather low to me. I would consider 1000 to be an adequate size and the more the better.

Guam

21,761 posts

153 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
unrepentant said:
Apart from Rasmussen all the polls have consistently showed Obama ahead and still do. I don't care what the MOE is, it's there for both parties and if the polls are all consistently one way common sense says that's the way it is. Willard has received a post debate bounce, less than I would have expected, but still a bounce. By Oct 25 all that bounce will have have gone back the other way.
For the last week Rasmussen showed obama ahead, indeed until yesterday they showed him ahead, they were fine then though right?

Most of those polls have had two serious skew issues <well documended if you know where to look>.
Several sites can be found that factor that out.

NONE of the polls when adjusted have shown anything outside of the MOE <except following the Dem conference when there was an expected bounce >

Once that abated, there is nothing outside of the MOE in de-skewed polling. One of the sites I have put on here has shown Romney consistently ahead, now although no one has faulted the methodology used on this site, I have assumed an unknown bias and deductied two points from their daily figures. that keeps it smack in the MOE, day in day out.


unrepentant

Original Poster:

15,845 posts

141 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
rohrl said:
The pollsters don't look for 1000 or 2000 average people. If they're trying to predict the election they try to speak to a representative sample of the population.

I have noticed that some of the polls only sample 500 voters which does seem rather low to me. I would consider 1000 to be an adequate size and the more the better.
Gallup uses 3000 which should be an adequate sample. I always thought that 1000 was considered to be the norm.

speedy_thrills

5,974 posts

128 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
Depends on how close the race is as to what sample size and what margin of error you need.

The problem with political polling isn't usually the number of samples but bias within sampling method. It's just very difficult to find representative samples.

Jimbeaux

28,027 posts

116 months

[news] 
Sunday 7th October 2012 quote quote all
retrobob]Had a serios lol moment while channel surfing I came across the Hannity show [not watched it for years as he is a plum said:
and he was praising former President Bill Clinton for being able to run the country all while getting bj's from Monica and yes he was serious.

Also Rove bashing President Obama over the debt > umm wasn't he former President George W advisor when a lot of the debt was racked up or do I have that wrong.
Yes, but Barack has added 50% of that in just 3.5 years, so he is adding at a faster rate than ever before. Trying to get the government to spend us out of a recession while paying out record entitlements to keep his voting base happy on the couch is damn expensive you know.

Muntu

6,539 posts

84 months

[news] 
Sunday 7th October 2012 quote quote all
Jimbeaux said:
Yes, but Barack has added 50% of that in just 3.5 years, so he is adding at a faster rate than ever before. Trying to get the government to spend us out of a recession while paying out record entitlements to keep his voting base happy on the couch is damn expensive you know.
BHO whines like a girly bh about the economy that he inherited from GWB. God only knows what he will say about the economy he inherits from himself, if he wins...

Countdown

10,162 posts

81 months

[news] 
Sunday 7th October 2012 quote quote all
So what's he spending on? The money must be going SOMEWHERE into the economy......

Mermaid

17,684 posts

56 months

[news] 
Sunday 7th October 2012 quote quote all
Countdown said:
So what's he spending on? The money must be going SOMEWHERE into the economy......
To the East?

Guam

21,761 posts

153 months

[news] 
Sunday 7th October 2012 quote quote all
Mermaid said:
To the East?
Very Perceptive, on his Green agenda IIRC he spent about 90 Billion on Solar, 45 billion of which allegedly went to China, I think I posted the link to that on the Climate thread iirc.
Thats just Solar panels!

Countdown

10,162 posts

81 months

[news] 
Sunday 7th October 2012 quote quote all
Guam said:
Very Perceptive, on his Green agenda IIRC he spent about 90 Billion on Solar, 45 billion of which allegedly went to China, I think I posted the link to that on the Climate thread iirc.
Thats just Solar panels!
Damned if you do, damned if you don't .....;)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/06/...

Guam

21,761 posts

153 months

[news] 
Sunday 7th October 2012 quote quote all
Countdown said:
Damned if you do, damned if you don't .....;)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/06/...
Long running debate on here about that sort of stuff, complete scam from start to finish. This is <or has been> a bipartisan scam btw <you omly need to do some research to find that out across Europe or in the US>.

However we digress and thats best dealt with on the climate threads ln fairness.

Oh and the authors of that piece?

Nick, David, and Micah work for Urban Green Energy, a renewable energy solutions company based in New York. Urban Green Energy designs distributed wind and solar energy systems for residential, commercial, and telecommunications facilities around the world.


No potential for bias there then?

Edited by Guam on Sunday 7th October 22:31

Guam

21,761 posts

153 months

[news] 
Monday 8th October 2012 quote quote all
Amazing Letterman can get away with this?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/07/letterm...

Dont like a guys politics so will just call him a Felon wothout proof!

This could easily back fire on those doing it I reckon.

Funny stuff in the US smile
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