US Elections 2012 Obama v Romney Official Thread

[unrepentant]

jeff m2 said:

Gun owner, I kill paper and clays, I am a life member of the NRA for convenience. What a lot of people don't realise is that competerive shooters have to belong to the NRA as they sanction everything and gun club insurance is "ungettable" if you are out of the loop.
However, the NRA tends to forget who pays them and is often beating the wrong drum IMO.
We shoot minimum 500rounds a week, hunters ten a year.
Best to think of shooting as golf without the walking. Although we do walk a little.

I've no real issue with the second amendment, it's part of what America is. I'm not that keen on the idea of weaponry being carried in the street but it is what it is. Where I have some disquiet is the ease by which weaponry can be obtained by almost anyone and the type of weapons that can be procured. I would have thought that there should be a little more oversight and maybe a little more restriction. The person who is refused a gun really is the exception.

I've shot clays myself and thoroughly enjoyed it and I've mates who like to shoot pheasant etc. I never quite saw the sport in that, defenseless birds being beaten towards the guns etc.. but everyone to their own.

[unrepentant]

Romney's desperation becomes more apparent by the day.

Last week he made the ludicrous and completely untrue claim that Jeep were closing factories in Ohio and shipping the jobs to China. Chrysler had to put out a strong statement slapping him down for what was simply a lie. Now he's running ads in Ohio doubling down on the lie!

This is unreal. This is a straightforward lie about a private company and it's being repeated in the full knowledge that it's completely fabricated. I hope Marchionne sues them. Romney is so unfit for high office it's beyond ridiculous, the man can't move 6 feet without telling an untruth.

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/ballot-2012/2012/...

[Stu R]

He's used to walking in a place full of people and telling them their jobs are headed to China - it was his version of a freudian slip.

I'd love to see Chrysler sue, no doubt he'd break out the teflon shoulder pads and blame it on a 3rd party marketing company or research body and throw someone else on his sword, but it'd be a lovely kick in the nuts. He's certainly getting scolded by the press for it.

Shame his stance on the culling of FEMA hasn't happened, they've done such a horrible job of co-ordinating a massive response for hurricane sandy. Oh wait... they've done a brilliant job. Damn.

Still, at least they're above trying to generate positive PR out of something so serious as a hurricane bearing down on the north east., or not.

Scary thought that he's still going to be getting a shed load of votes, win or lose.

[Wadeski]

I'm waiting to hear how Hurricane Sandy is Obama's fault =]

[Stu R]

Mitt Romney said:

I saw a story today, that one of the great manufacturers in this state, Jeep, now owned by the Italians, is thinking of moving all production to China"

Jeep said:

"Let’s set the record straight: Jeep has no intention of shifting production of its Jeep models out of North America to China. It’s simply reviewing the opportunities to return Jeep output to China for the world’s largest auto market. U.S. Jeep assembly lines will continue to stay in operation. A careful and unbiased reading of the Bloomberg take would have saved unnecessary fantasies and extravagant comments."

I'd say that was pretty cut and dry case of BS.

The fact Jeep themselves [along with several news outlets] have reacted so vociferously to it while the Romney campaign stays tight lipped on the matter says it all really. It stinks of desperation, and shows just how low they'll go to try and grab a couple of points. They'll be running new ads every other day and before they're held accountable for the last one the new one will be out.

Mitt Romney's in Kettering OH today, not far from my missus and right on my soon-to-be doorstep. Tried to persuade the missus to pop along but she's not sure she can stand the smell of BS for that long despite being a farm girl.

[longblackcoat]

Guam said:

If you accept Gallups analysis Romney is still surging.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/29...

If you accept John Nolte's interpretation of Gallup's poll, you're correct.

But when you see a commentator who uses the terms CorruptMedia to describe what anyone else would call the mainstream, you know that they're not entirely presenting a neutral and balanced view.

This is the same John Nolte, let's not forget, who tweeted "Teachers who take kids to protests without parents' permission should be murdered" last year. The man clearly has issues, so let's not give his particular fantasies any airtime.

[unrepentant]

Stu R said:

Mitt Romney said:

I saw a story today, that one of the great manufacturers in this state, Jeep, now owned by the Italians, is thinking of moving all production to China"

Jeep said:

"Let’s set the record straight: Jeep has no intention of shifting production of its Jeep models out of North America to China. It’s simply reviewing the opportunities to return Jeep output to China for the world’s largest auto market. U.S. Jeep assembly lines will continue to stay in operation. A careful and unbiased reading of the Bloomberg take would have saved unnecessary fantasies and extravagant comments."

I'd say that was pretty cut and dry case of BS.

The fact Jeep themselves [along with several news outlets] have reacted so vociferously to it while the Romney campaign stays tight lipped on the matter says it all really. It stinks of desperation, and shows just how low they'll go to try and grab a couple of points. They'll be running new ads every other day and before they're held accountable for the last one the new one will be out.

Mitt Romney's in Kettering OH today, not far from my missus and right on my soon-to-be doorstep. Tried to persuade the missus to pop along but she's not sure she can stand the smell of BS for that long despite being a farm girl.

The whole story is utter garbage and every word has been challenged by Chrysler. I really hope they sue the mendacious twunt. The press are all over it which is a good thing. He's losing Ohio and with it the election and he's clearly desperate.

http://www.politicususa.com/press-finally-wakes-ro...

On the good news front Willard has announced that this is it, when he loses he's done with politics.

[longblackcoat]

Guam said:

longblackcoat said:

If you accept John Nolte's interpretation of Gallup's poll, you're correct.

But when you see a commentator who uses the terms CorruptMedia to describe what anyone else would call the mainstream, you know that they're not entirely presenting a neutral and balanced view.

This is the same John Nolte, let's not forget, who tweeted "Teachers who take kids to protests without parents' permission should be murdered" last year. The man clearly has issues, so let's not give his particular fantasies any airtime.

So does Gallup not show what he claims then?

Gallup's poll says:

"Whether the candidates' focus on early voting will ultimately pay off isn't clear. At present, early voting appears to be a convenience that older voters are using disproportionately; they may welcome the opportunity to vote by mail rather than in person on Election Day. It is also relatively common in the West and among postgraduates, groups that may have better access to information about how to navigate the early voting process. Some states not only encourage early voting, but mandate it, thus accounting for regional differences. However, despite the hype, it doesn't appear that early voting will have a major impact on the U.S. popular vote, or be much more prevalent than it was four years ago."

Now, Nolte can read all he wants to into the numbers they've put in their poll - and his big point is that "the CorruptMedia's been talking for weeks about how Obama's crushing Romney in early voting, you would think Gallup proving that Narrative a big fat phony lie would be news." My point is that Gallup state only that early voting seems to be making little impact on the overall result. They're not claiming anything else, and they simply don't comment on anyone crushing anyone else.

Nolte then brings in other data - not Gallup data, mind you - to make his point about early voting in Ohio, and how the rest of the media - that awful leftist conspiracy - are lying.

To answer your question: no, Gallup doesn't show what he claims.

[Stu R]

I know I mentioned it earlier, but I Just heard on CNN: "We're told by the Romney camp that Mitt Romney is not campaigning today either, however he is holding a disaster relief event in Ohio where he'll be joined by NASCAR driver Richard Petty and Country music singer [missed the name]"

That'll be South West Ohio which was utterly ravaged by the.... er ... well it snowed a tiny bit this morning, and it's a bit windy, but that's about it. Doesn't sound at all like campaigning!

[longblackcoat]

Guam said:

So Gallup ISNT showing a Romney lead in early voting according to the data? in your opinion? <whether it will be sustained or not is a different issue>

I specifically mentioned ignoring opinion

ETA Gallup said "Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead"

Edited by Guam on Tuesday 30th October 12:35

My points made before were plain - Nolte's contention, the thing I was commenting on, was that the Gallup poll proved that the mainstream media had been lying. In my view, that's a completely unproven point. The Gallup poll is, well, just a poll. No particular significance attaches to it more than any other.

As for the actual numbers? Even following poll-of-poll data, I still think it's way too close to call, and that recent events - the Jeep issue in particular, but also Sandy - are unlikely to help Romney. We all know that the overall percentage matters not a jot, and that Ohio will make all the difference.

Based on nothing other than feeling, I'm still going for an Obama win, by a slim margin. Not that this is any endorsement - he's bound to have a terrible second term with a hugely hostile House and Senate, will achieve very little, and will probably be seen in historical terms as a failure.

[longblackcoat]

Guam said:

Not disagreeing with your View on Nolte you clearly read him more than I
It was the gallup numbers that caught my attention.

The Jeep issue is Spin and Sandy is hitting largely Dem areas so I cant see that it will have much impact on the overall result <Although IIRC there are two swing states that might be impacted by sandy, which may of course have an impact if correct>.

I concur it will be tight and will be down to turnout.

in the UK we could factor the weather into the percentages, not sure who and where adverse conditions would benefit for the US though?

Weather - Sandy in this case - is likely to help Obama if he handles it well, or be the final nail in the coffin if FEMA screw it up. Seems that it's more likely to help Obama - he gets the opportunity to act properly presidential and look good on TV whilst Romney is reduced to quasi-campaigning which he knows is of very limited worth.

What should be worrying for the Obama followers is the overall Rasmussen view across the swing states, with Romney 50 : 46 Obama. Even the fact that 1/3 of Ohio voters have voted, with Obama 62 : 36 among these voters doesn't help Obama, as the remaining voters are predominantly Romney-inclined. If he can get enough voters out on the day AND if Obama's handling of Sandy isn't presidential enough, Romney might just squeak it.

[unrepentant]

longblackcoat said:

What should be worrying for the Obama followers is the overall Rasmussen view across the swing states, with Romney 50 : 46 Obama. Even the fact that 1/3 of Ohio voters have voted, with Obama 62 : 36 among these voters doesn't help Obama, as the remaining voters are predominantly Romney-inclined. If he can get enough voters out on the day AND if Obama's handling of Sandy isn't presidential enough, Romney might just squeak it.

On the other hand CNN, Time, Gravis, Purple strategies, ARG, PPP and Survey USA all have Obama ahead in Ohio and the average of swing state polls has him ahead in 8 of 12 swing states and tied in 2 others. Obama will win most of those states, if not all and will win Ohio.

[longblackcoat]

unrepentant said:

longblackcoat said:

What should be worrying for the Obama followers is the overall Rasmussen view across the swing states, with Romney 50 : 46 Obama. Even the fact that 1/3 of Ohio voters have voted, with Obama 62 : 36 among these voters doesn't help Obama, as the remaining voters are predominantly Romney-inclined. If he can get enough voters out on the day AND if Obama's handling of Sandy isn't presidential enough, Romney might just squeak it.

On the other hand CNN, Time, Gravis, Purple strategies, ARG, PPP and Survey USA all have Obama ahead in Ohio and the average of swing state polls has him ahead in 8 of 12 swing states and tied in 2 others. Obama will win most of those states, if not all and will win Ohio.

So we all agree that it's very finely balanced, yes? There are all sorts of poll numbers out there, but even Obama's strongest supporters would say that it's a lot closer than they could ever have thought.

Anyone want to call their predictions, along with electoral college numbers?

I'm going with an Obama win, with 330. There, colours nailed to the mast.

[Mermaid]

I am perched on the fence, expect recounts.

[unrepentant]

longblackcoat said:

So we all agree that it's very finely balanced, yes? There are all sorts of poll numbers out there, but even Obama's strongest supporters would say that it's a lot closer than they could ever have thought.

Anyone want to call their predictions, along with electoral college numbers?

I'm going with an Obama win, with 330. There, colours nailed to the mast.

I would be very happy with 330. I'll go with Obama between 284 and 309.

[longblackcoat]

unrepentant said:

I would be very happy with 330. I'll go with Obama between 284 and 309.

Bookies have Obama 290-309 as the most likely, at 5/2!

[unrepentant]

longblackcoat said:

unrepentant said:

I would be very happy with 330. I'll go with Obama between 284 and 309.

Bookies have Obama 290-309 as the most likely, at 5/2!

Obama is odds on to win (ave 4/11) with every bookmaker that offers odds, even William Hill who started off favouring Romney. You can get 2/1 on Romney. That's a huge spread and Romney is drifting out.

Obama's also odds on to win Ohio with all of them.

I'll take the bookies over the pollsters any day.

[longblackcoat]

Guam said:

Not too late for a decent punt on a shock result

Still seeing my new camera looming large

RCP's view on the electoral college map http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/presi...

Edited by Guam on Tuesday 30th October 16:11

So go on then, give us an electoral college prediction! Romney 279-289 is there at 4/1 at the moment.

[toppstuff]

Is there still a risk of hanging chads , legal challenges or other such shenanigans?

It's going to be close. Desperate measures and all that..

[Stu R]

Guam said:

toppstuff said:

Is there still a risk of hanging chads , legal challenges or other such shenanigans?

It's going to be close. Desperate measures and all that..

I reckon we will absolutely see a lot of that

They are already preparing for it with the absentee ballot thing

Yep, I reckon it'll be a messy fight after the polls have closed.

David Icke will be w*nking himself into a lather with conspiricies about the bain-related voting machines not long after