Six years for not predicting an earthquake...
Discussion
Lunacy. Utter lunacy.
And I say that as someone who has been through some tough times with Earthquakes too.
Our on geologists could have stressed the risk of further quakes after the September 7.1. Our council should have preprepared the CBD better, should have had more thorough building inspections. Whatever.
But you cant predict quakes with accuracy , you can just be prepared for them when they happen, and learn lessons from ones that have happened.
This will just convince scientists to leave Italy. I hope they do, or quit. Basically you cant 'predict' anything in Italy now unless you give the worst case scenario.
And I say that as someone who has been through some tough times with Earthquakes too.
Our on geologists could have stressed the risk of further quakes after the September 7.1. Our council should have preprepared the CBD better, should have had more thorough building inspections. Whatever.
But you cant predict quakes with accuracy , you can just be prepared for them when they happen, and learn lessons from ones that have happened.
This will just convince scientists to leave Italy. I hope they do, or quit. Basically you cant 'predict' anything in Italy now unless you give the worst case scenario.
Gene Vincent said:
Look on the bright side... think of all the 'climate scientists' we can lynch soon!
Hmm. Maybe.But if they appeal and win (as they should) it would probably mean that all people who call themselves scientists will tend to be untouchable to the point where they can get away with any old rubbish unquestioned.
The modern world seems suddenly to be producing some very old world concepts of blame and retribution. Strange times.
Interesting take on someone from here who went there.
'chc eq person' said:
Every commenter on the story about the 6 scientists and former government official being found guilty of manslaughter in the L'Aquila finds the verdict ridiculous. We wanted to give it a little more context from the information we learned about L'Aquila when we visited in September 2012. L'Aquila has had a big earthquake roughly every 300 years. It suffered thousands of smallish earthquakes over the prior six months & a particularly big fore-shock the day before the big one in April 2009.
Very many slept outside in the piazzas that night. That evening as well, a scientist said in the media, to "relax & enjoy a glass of red wine."
The residents had been worried by the earthquakes and asking questions about whether there was any chance of a big one.
This group of scientists met and issued a much more definitive statement than we have ever had from our scientists saying that a big earthquake was unlikely. The media reported it in a more extreme way and some citizens were reassured enough to sleep in their beds, rather than leaving or sleeping in open spaces. The night after the big fore-shock, at 3.30 am the big earthquake hit, and 308 people died. The man who spear headed the case had intended to sleep in an open space, but was reassured by the scientists and stayed in his apartment. He was dug out of the rubble and his wife and child died.
It makes the case more understandable to know the human story behind it.
And it reinforces how sensible it is of our scientists to give us probabilities about the likelihood of a larger EQ, rather than to make the clearer statements that some would like to read.
Very many slept outside in the piazzas that night. That evening as well, a scientist said in the media, to "relax & enjoy a glass of red wine."
The residents had been worried by the earthquakes and asking questions about whether there was any chance of a big one.
This group of scientists met and issued a much more definitive statement than we have ever had from our scientists saying that a big earthquake was unlikely. The media reported it in a more extreme way and some citizens were reassured enough to sleep in their beds, rather than leaving or sleeping in open spaces. The night after the big fore-shock, at 3.30 am the big earthquake hit, and 308 people died. The man who spear headed the case had intended to sleep in an open space, but was reassured by the scientists and stayed in his apartment. He was dug out of the rubble and his wife and child died.
It makes the case more understandable to know the human story behind it.
And it reinforces how sensible it is of our scientists to give us probabilities about the likelihood of a larger EQ, rather than to make the clearer statements that some would like to read.
RobDickinson said:
Interesting take on someone from here who went there.
There is also the old adage of being very careful about what you say to the media for they will almost certainly misreport some part of it. You just have to hope it's not an important part.'chc eq person' said:
Every commenter on the story about the 6 scientists and former government official being found guilty of manslaughter in the L'Aquila finds the verdict ridiculous. We wanted to give it a little more context from the information we learned about L'Aquila when we visited in September 2012. L'Aquila has had a big earthquake roughly every 300 years. It suffered thousands of smallish earthquakes over the prior six months & a particularly big fore-shock the day before the big one in April 2009.
Very many slept outside in the piazzas that night. That evening as well, a scientist said in the media, to "relax & enjoy a glass of red wine."
The residents had been worried by the earthquakes and asking questions about whether there was any chance of a big one.
This group of scientists met and issued a much more definitive statement than we have ever had from our scientists saying that a big earthquake was unlikely. The media reported it in a more extreme way and some citizens were reassured enough to sleep in their beds, rather than leaving or sleeping in open spaces. The night after the big fore-shock, at 3.30 am the big earthquake hit, and 308 people died. The man who spear headed the case had intended to sleep in an open space, but was reassured by the scientists and stayed in his apartment. He was dug out of the rubble and his wife and child died.
It makes the case more understandable to know the human story behind it.
And it reinforces how sensible it is of our scientists to give us probabilities about the likelihood of a larger EQ, rather than to make the clearer statements that some would like to read.
Very many slept outside in the piazzas that night. That evening as well, a scientist said in the media, to "relax & enjoy a glass of red wine."
The residents had been worried by the earthquakes and asking questions about whether there was any chance of a big one.
This group of scientists met and issued a much more definitive statement than we have ever had from our scientists saying that a big earthquake was unlikely. The media reported it in a more extreme way and some citizens were reassured enough to sleep in their beds, rather than leaving or sleeping in open spaces. The night after the big fore-shock, at 3.30 am the big earthquake hit, and 308 people died. The man who spear headed the case had intended to sleep in an open space, but was reassured by the scientists and stayed in his apartment. He was dug out of the rubble and his wife and child died.
It makes the case more understandable to know the human story behind it.
And it reinforces how sensible it is of our scientists to give us probabilities about the likelihood of a larger EQ, rather than to make the clearer statements that some would like to read.
Playing Devil's advocate a bit, it seems like they did actually make a point of saying there wasn't going to be an earthquake, and they worked for the Centre for Disaster Forecasting, so people listened.
An apparently stupid ruling, but one wonders why they would make that sort of statement in the first place?
An apparently stupid ruling, but one wonders why they would make that sort of statement in the first place?
AJS- said:
Playing Devil's advocate a bit, it seems like they did actually make a point of saying there wasn't going to be an earthquake, and they worked for the Centre for Disaster Forecasting, so people listened.
An apparently stupid ruling, but one wonders why they would make that sort of statement in the first place?
Not quite right!! They met a week before the event, they said they CANNOT PREDICT an earthquake... thats summat different to saying there will be NO earthquake!!!An apparently stupid ruling, but one wonders why they would make that sort of statement in the first place?
TheSnitch said:
Total f
king lunacy, on a par with witchcraft trials.
I remember when we had the 'Hurricane that never was' The arseparts on Breakfast TV were trying to make mileage out of the fact that the BBC's Met office qualified weather forecasters got it wrong, and dragged in Ulrika "bury me in a y-shaped coffin" Johnsson for her ''expert'' opinion, as which point the dozy tart said that people should ''take responsibility for their own weather forecasts''. Which was bloody rich considering that she was hired purely for her ability to point her tits at the camera and read words from an autocue, and didn't know one end of an isobar from the other.
Err, an isobar by it's very nature cant have an end. Otherwise spot on.king lunacy, on a par with witchcraft trials.I remember when we had the 'Hurricane that never was' The arseparts on Breakfast TV were trying to make mileage out of the fact that the BBC's Met office qualified weather forecasters got it wrong, and dragged in Ulrika "bury me in a y-shaped coffin" Johnsson for her ''expert'' opinion, as which point the dozy tart said that people should ''take responsibility for their own weather forecasts''. Which was bloody rich considering that she was hired purely for her ability to point her tits at the camera and read words from an autocue, and didn't know one end of an isobar from the other.
JMGS4 said:
They met a week before the event, they said they CANNOT PREDICT an earthquake... thats summat different to saying there will be NO earthquake!!!
And there's a difference between saying no earthquake, and one being unlikely - if the 'chc eq person' quoted comment is wholly accurate.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff