How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Burwood said:
It's nonsense that all experts are reporting a fall. Many have reported tiny negative reactions by amateur buyers.the same agents report increased enquiry as the vote result removes uncertainty. Life goes on.
Who said all experts? Certainly a number of them are.Tiny negative reactions? Like pulling out of chains and seeking discounts.
Who do you define as amateur buyers? FTB/home movers/general public? I do believe these make up the majority of the residential buying market.
DoubleSix said:
However I observe the younger generation do not share their parents obsession with home ownership and seem to have less material aspirations.
In that context this gracious act of altruism you highlight may not be interpreted in the manner you suggest.
Oh and btw, I'm not 100% convinced the oldies marched off to the polling booths with the aim of lowering the price of their assets for the benefit of others - most people appear to have voted in an entirely selfish manner as is the norm.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/29/getting-on-property-ladder-now-more-important-to-young-than-marr/In that context this gracious act of altruism you highlight may not be interpreted in the manner you suggest.
Oh and btw, I'm not 100% convinced the oldies marched off to the polling booths with the aim of lowering the price of their assets for the benefit of others - most people appear to have voted in an entirely selfish manner as is the norm.
It is ranked as the most important life milestone by more of the young than getting married or having children.
Many cant afford it, which is a different issue entirely.
SidewaysSi said:
If was abroad,I would be looking to hoover up London property if the Pound falls. I don't see the London market falling significantly.
You would think so at first thought, but investors hate uncertainty and high risk.I saw an article yesterday quoting Henry Prior, one of his clients was from Singapore buying a £35m property but pulled out for exactly the uncertainly reasons. Just because sterling/USD fell 8% or so, doesnt mean everyone will jump in when there is a risk of bigger drops. Let alone the stamp duty on top.
Although I bet there will be a few that still do.
In fact some quotes from estate agencies. Source: https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/industry-views/...
“It is hard to see any good side of the Brexit result in the near term except that the fall in Sterling will give any overseas buyer a window of opportunity to buy cheaply. The most likely scenario is one that we have seen before in other times of dislocation - 1987, 1998 and 2008 - a period where the market seizes up and the only activity is between the brave and the desperate” says Charlie Ellingworth of the buying agency Property Vision.
“A Vote for Leave unfortunately creates uncertainty because the eventual result of the negotiations, and the UK’s economic position in this new world, are (at the moment) unknowable. There is therefore likely to be a period of nervousness in the housing/mortgage markets which could last for a number of months – for instance, we could see a reduction in housing transaction numbers until consumers/borrowers are more certain of what the position is” says Eddie Goldsmith, chairman of the Conveyancing Association.
“Whatever result you were hoping for, it’s hard to argue against the fact that this result will bring further uncertainty and also creates far more questions than it answers in terms of what happens next as Britain extricates itself from the continent in terms of procedures and processes” according to David Brown, CEO of Marsh & Parsons.
“The chances of a technical recession, as business investment is curtailed, is high, and exporters and financial services firms will be in the forefront of the downturn” argues James Roberts of Knight Frank.
“The vote to leave the EU presents the UK housing and mortgage market with a number of potential risks and challenges simply because of the uncertainty we are now faced with” admits Rob Clifford, chief executive of CENTURY 21 UK.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Saturday 25th June 14:36
JagLover said:
DoubleSix said:
However I observe the younger generation do not share their parents obsession with home ownership and seem to have less material aspirations.
In that context this gracious act of altruism you highlight may not be interpreted in the manner you suggest.
Oh and btw, I'm not 100% convinced the oldies marched off to the polling booths with the aim of lowering the price of their assets for the benefit of others - most people appear to have voted in an entirely selfish manner as is the norm.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/29/getting-on-property-ladder-now-more-important-to-young-than-marr/In that context this gracious act of altruism you highlight may not be interpreted in the manner you suggest.
Oh and btw, I'm not 100% convinced the oldies marched off to the polling booths with the aim of lowering the price of their assets for the benefit of others - most people appear to have voted in an entirely selfish manner as is the norm.
It is ranked as the most important life milestone by more of the young than getting married or having children.
Many cant afford it, which is a different issue entirely.
digimeistter said:
Well I took on three new instructions today and had a sale agreed on another pretty close to asking price, all my sales already in hand are still proceeding, not a single wobble, just a grass roots observation. Not bad Brexit +1
Whereabouts, roughly?Edited by digimeistter on Saturday 25th June 16:14
DoubleSix said:
seem to have less material aspirations.
Possibly the stupidest thing to say yet. The youth have never been so flipping materialistic. Girls at my daughters school would have voted to remain as they worried that Nando's would leave. As long as they have the latest iPhone all is well.LittleEnus said:
DoubleSix said:
seem to have less material aspirations.
Possibly the stupidest thing to say yet. The youth have never been so flipping materialistic. Girls at my daughters school would have voted to remain as they worried that Nando's would leave. As long as they have the latest iPhone all is well.
mike74 said:
Al U said:
Had a look on rightmove just now in the area I was/am (still not sure if I am pulling out yet) buying and while a few properties have been reduced everything looks business as usual.
Things aren't going to happen that quickly!... But things will happen.
king brexit. If when I come to remortgage I can't get a decent deal or I go into negative equity I'm in the fortunate position of being able to afford to tread water. I think things will go back to normal quicker than most people think.A lot of people are probably going to pull out of their purchases and wait for the prices to go down but what's the cost of waiting? Not just financially but in terms of actually being in a place of your own and living how you please. What if prices don't go down enough to have made it worth the wait? Some places suggest that due to the demand for houses that there won't actually be a drop, just a slow down in the pace of increases.
Al U said:
This is the thing people say all of these things but no one knows for sure. All the articles are littered with maybe's like "might", "could", "may" etc. I've decided I'm not going to put my life on hold for the sake of the fking brexit. If when I come to remortgage I can't get a decent deal or I go into negative equity I'm in the fortunate position of being able to afford to tread water. I think things will go back to normal quicker than most people think.
A lot of people are probably going to pull out of their purchases and wait for the prices to go down but what's the cost of waiting? Not just financially but in terms of actually being in a place of your own and living how you please. What if prices don't go down enough to have made it worth the wait? Some places suggest that due to the demand for houses that there won't actually be a drop, just a slow down in the pace of increases.
Of course, no-one will say "it will definitely', no-one has a crystal ball but probability and logic are at their strongest ever for house drops but by no means 100% of all 'experts'.king brexit. If when I come to remortgage I can't get a decent deal or I go into negative equity I'm in the fortunate position of being able to afford to tread water. I think things will go back to normal quicker than most people think.A lot of people are probably going to pull out of their purchases and wait for the prices to go down but what's the cost of waiting? Not just financially but in terms of actually being in a place of your own and living how you please. What if prices don't go down enough to have made it worth the wait? Some places suggest that due to the demand for houses that there won't actually be a drop, just a slow down in the pace of increases.
Anecdotal but indicative is my girlfriends mother who owns a number of property across London (some worth £1-2 mill individually) and the North (sub £200k type properties) is now seriously concerned and looking to sell some of the assets to weather the likely storm and maintain the ability to service mortgages. The GF's mother just a week ago and the last 2 years was the most convinced of ever increasing house prices whether it was slow or not, now she is talking about a hopeful 10% drop which is manageable.
Sounds like you have looked at the facts and come to your conclusion. At least you have been made aware of the dangers.
I guess it also depends on the value of the property, 10% of £150k is a lot less risky than 10% of £600k!
Good luck, but as you can tell I am certainly thinking it will go the opposite way and not just a slow down in 'growth'!
Edited by V6Alfisti on Sunday 26th June 17:14
Piersman2 said:
LittleEnus said:
DoubleSix said:
seem to have less material aspirations.
Possibly the stupidest thing to say yet. The youth have never been so flipping materialistic. Girls at my daughters school would have voted to remain as they worried that Nando's would leave. As long as they have the latest iPhone all is well.My own peer group headed straight for The City for the biggest pay check they could find and worked hard to get it - that was their prority.
That seems a pretty uncool thing to do by modern standards; lifestyle is too important to them. Work/life balance is a modern saying no?? Looking at what millennials want from employers these days... flexibility, dynamism, societal contribution etc it seems the paycheck is no longer the be all and end all.
But hey that's just round here in a lefty dominated urban area with craft beer hang outs on every corner - I'm sure if you live in Essex or something then there's plenty of evidence to the contrary.
Edited by DoubleSix on Sunday 26th June 20:32
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