How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Digga said:
NPI said:
Pork said:
Not sure about that. MrsPork loves Kirsty and the last couple of thinks I've heard her say on her current drivvel is that Cheshire has gone up 20% in the past year...
Small parts of Cheshire are like London.In most of it, prices are still way off 2007 peaks (which, to be fair, did get ridiculous).
MycroftWard said:
Yeah, we've had the worst recession in most people living memory with a near collapse of the financial/banking system, house prices took a dip but are recovering well. As I see it the only events that would cause a collapse in house prices are another major financial crisis (unlikely to happen again so soon), a very sharp rise in interest rates (which won't happen IMO) or some sort of WW3/armageddon scenario (unlikely, but who knows?).
The reason they only slightly dipped and then started recovering again is due to massive government intervention ,zirp, 0.5% rates, mortgage liquidity schemes huge cheap loans to banks , and now lending deposits. Edited by MycroftWard on Friday 11th April 12:46
Im not suggesting a crash just that its heavily influenced by the government.
jonny70 said:
MycroftWard said:
Yeah, we've had the worst recession in most people living memory with a near collapse of the financial/banking system, house prices took a dip but are recovering well. As I see it the only events that would cause a collapse in house prices are another major financial crisis (unlikely to happen again so soon), a very sharp rise in interest rates (which won't happen IMO) or some sort of WW3/armageddon scenario (unlikely, but who knows?).
The reason they only slightly dipped and then started recovering again is due to massive government intervention ,zirp, 0.5% rates, mortgage liquidity schemes huge cheap loans to banks , and now lending deposits. Edited by MycroftWard on Friday 11th April 12:46
Im not suggesting a crash just that its heavily influenced by the government.
I think it unlikely that the government will change their tune and pull the rug out from under home-owners, with the economic effects that would bring, unless they're forced by circumstances.
We have got a decent economic recovery on the go, obviously we desperately need growth to boost tax revenues to pay the debts down, they won't want to jeopardize that in any way.
MycroftWard said:
We have got a decent economic recovery on the go, obviously we desperately need growth to boost tax revenues to pay the debts down, they won't want to jeopardize that in any way.
Thats where we hit the problems. If we have a decent recovering economy then all this housing market stimulus has too be lifted and i/r risen .Otherwise whats currently starting to happen rapidly increasing house prices will gain momentum on not just the back of a growing economy but on low i/r an stimulus measures this can only end in tears. If the economy is growing stimulus isnt needed ,a growing economy with a continuous stimulus package in the housing market will only create a bubble and overheat the economy. Justayellowbadge said:
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I think it's only London that has 'recovered' from the recession, in terms of house prices.
Although everywhere is seeing gains, I believe outside London most of the UK is still below 2007 peak values.
You're right. Very easy to get taken in by the headlines but average house prices UK wide are only at 2007 Levels and considering we have had 7 years of inflation that's a significant fall in real terms. Of course there will be exceptions to this but overall prices have not recovered.Although everywhere is seeing gains, I believe outside London most of the UK is still below 2007 peak values.
Randy Winkman said:
turbobloke said:
It all depends on who defines 'deserve' and how they define it.
Actually, I'm with you on that. By "deserve" I really meant "have worked hard for" which I appreciate isn't the same thing at all. Even so, when powerful external forces are at work in the form of the international marketplace membership, it's only ever going to be very tough in and around London.
turbobloke said:
Randy Winkman said:
turbobloke said:
It all depends on who defines 'deserve' and how they define it.
Actually, I'm with you on that. By "deserve" I really meant "have worked hard for" which I appreciate isn't the same thing at all. Even so, when powerful external forces are at work in the form of the international marketplace membership, it's only ever going to be very tough in and around London.
Shelter reckons nearly 4m families have barely enough saved to keep them going a month if they lost their jobs: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27015809
Personally, I know a few people who (whilst outwardly affluent in some cases) are heavily reliant on credit and very poorly prepared for a hike in interest rates, let alone redundancy. For many, it's a huge struggle to stand still.
Personally, I know a few people who (whilst outwardly affluent in some cases) are heavily reliant on credit and very poorly prepared for a hike in interest rates, let alone redundancy. For many, it's a huge struggle to stand still.
Shelter said:
Sky-high housing costs and stagnating wages mean that saving is becoming a thing of the past for many people. Most of us simply don't have enough money in the bank that we can rely on for long enough to get back on our feet.
Digga said:
Shelter reckons nearly 4m families have barely enough saved to keep them going a month if they lost their jobs: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27015809
Personally, I know a few people who (whilst outwardly affluent in some cases) are heavily reliant on credit and very poorly prepared for a hike in interest rates, let alone redundancy. For many, it's a huge struggle to stand still.
Not sure if it was based on the above research or something completely different but a news item two or three days ago mentioned that more than a third of households have £250 or less as a cash cushion.Personally, I know a few people who (whilst outwardly affluent in some cases) are heavily reliant on credit and very poorly prepared for a hike in interest rates, let alone redundancy. For many, it's a huge struggle to stand still.
Shelter said:
Sky-high housing costs and stagnating wages mean that saving is becoming a thing of the past for many people. Most of us simply don't have enough money in the bank that we can rely on for long enough to get back on our feet.
turbobloke said:
Digga said:
Shelter reckons nearly 4m families have barely enough saved to keep them going a month if they lost their jobs: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27015809
Personally, I know a few people who (whilst outwardly affluent in some cases) are heavily reliant on credit and very poorly prepared for a hike in interest rates, let alone redundancy. For many, it's a huge struggle to stand still.
Not sure if it was based on the above research or something completely different but a news item two or three days ago mentioned that more than a third of households have £250 or less as a cash cushion.Personally, I know a few people who (whilst outwardly affluent in some cases) are heavily reliant on credit and very poorly prepared for a hike in interest rates, let alone redundancy. For many, it's a huge struggle to stand still.
Shelter said:
Sky-high housing costs and stagnating wages mean that saving is becoming a thing of the past for many people. Most of us simply don't have enough money in the bank that we can rely on for long enough to get back on our feet.
Digga said:
Personally, I know a few people who (whilst outwardly affluent in some cases) are heavily reliant on credit and very poorly prepared for a hike in interest rates, let alone redundancy. For many, it's a huge struggle to stand still.
I know a number of people like that too, but it seems to be the way of it these days, maintain the lifestyle at all costs. I don't want to be too judgmental about that, each to their own, but what I don't want is to hear is incessant whining if/when things go belly up, you takes ya choices. To be fair most people I know who live on the edge like that have not only survived, but are quids in (on paper at least) now the price of the house that they stretched to buy is on the up again.It looks like things will start to ease up anyhow, with "wage rises to outstrip inflation".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10764...
Edited by MycroftWard on Monday 14th April 12:56
Digga said:
turbobloke said:
Digga said:
Shelter reckons nearly 4m families have barely enough saved to keep them going a month if they lost their jobs: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27015809
Personally, I know a few people who (whilst outwardly affluent in some cases) are heavily reliant on credit and very poorly prepared for a hike in interest rates, let alone redundancy. For many, it's a huge struggle to stand still.
Not sure if it was based on the above research or something completely different but a news item two or three days ago mentioned that more than a third of households have £250 or less as a cash cushion.Personally, I know a few people who (whilst outwardly affluent in some cases) are heavily reliant on credit and very poorly prepared for a hike in interest rates, let alone redundancy. For many, it's a huge struggle to stand still.
Shelter said:
Sky-high housing costs and stagnating wages mean that saving is becoming a thing of the past for many people. Most of us simply don't have enough money in the bank that we can rely on for long enough to get back on our feet.
Digga said:
turbobloke said:
Wage inflation on a white horse is heading this way over that hill -------------------------->
All being pissed away on shiny new cars, or rather PCPs to rent a seat in a shiny new car.turbobloke said:
Digga said:
turbobloke said:
Wage inflation on a white horse is heading this way over that hill -------------------------->
All being pissed away on shiny new cars, or rather PCPs to rent a seat in a shiny new car.Digga said:
One of the people who sprang to mind on this topic has just signed-up for a new Audi A5 and without getting a decent p/ex for their ageing A6, which they hope to sell privately. It may sound mercenary, but Gordon Gecko was right, a fool and his money are lucky to get together in the first place.
The white Audi on PCP seems to be PH's favourite poster child for people who put lifestyle before anything else, but we know numbers of people whose finances are very finely balanced month to month and none of them have new cars (of any make) on PCP.NPI said:
Digga said:
One of the people who sprang to mind on this topic has just signed-up for a new Audi A5 and without getting a decent p/ex for their ageing A6, which they hope to sell privately. It may sound mercenary, but Gordon Gecko was right, a fool and his money are lucky to get together in the first place.
The white Audi on PCP seems to be PH's favourite poster child for people who put lifestyle before anything else, but we know numbers of people whose finances are very finely balanced month to month and none of them have new cars (of any make) on PCP.
t creek in a canoe full of dependents, you have a responsibility IMHO, to make better choices than that.
I know a 26 year old that bought in london a few years ago aged 22-23 ish and theyve just made £350k on their flat. Moving back to manchester, buying a nice house outright and going to work part time for the next 42 years!
Its like pass the parcel in London, all good fun but when the music stops whoever is left holding the parcel will be upset!
Its like pass the parcel in London, all good fun but when the music stops whoever is left holding the parcel will be upset!
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff