How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[turbobloke]

NPI said:

Digga said:

One of the people who sprang to mind on this topic has just signed-up for a new Audi A5 and without getting a decent p/ex for their ageing A6, which they hope to sell privately. It may sound mercenary, but Gordon Gecko was right, a fool and his money are lucky to get together in the first place.

The white Audi on PCP seems to be PH's favourite poster child for people who put lifestyle before anything else, but we know numbers of people whose finances are very finely balanced month to month and none of them have new cars (of any make) on PCP.

Presumably they can't afford the white Audi S line on PCP due to the white RRS in the garage bought with a Vorderman loan. Still, there's more house price rises on the way so a quick mew and Bob's your Audi dealer.

[Justayellowbadge]

jonah35 said:

I know a 26 year old that bought in london a few years ago aged 22-23 ish and theyve just made £350k on their flat. Moving back to manchester, buying a nice house outright and going to work part time for the next 42 years!

Its like pass the parcel in London, all good fun but when the music stops whoever is left holding the parcel will be upset!

Did he have help?

Not many 22 year olds buy half a million plus properties.

[MycroftWard]

jonah35 said:

I know a 26 year old that bought in london a few years ago aged 22-23 ish and theyve just made £350k on their flat. Moving back to manchester, buying a nice house outright and going to work part time for the next 42 years!

Its like pass the parcel in London, all good fun but when the music stops whoever is left holding the parcel will be upset!

Good for them. Greater fool theory working well.

[Digga]

MycroftWard said:

jonah35 said:

I know a 26 year old that bought in london a few years ago aged 22-23 ish and theyve just made £350k on their flat. Moving back to manchester, buying a nice house outright and going to work part time for the next 42 years!

Its like pass the parcel in London, all good fun but when the music stops whoever is left holding the parcel will be upset!

Good for them. Greater fool theory working well.

Also, knowing (south) Manchester well, greatly depends on your definition of what constitutes a great house and desirable neighbourhood.

One of my mates spent a few years working in Dubai and bought his house, a nice 3 bed Victorian semi in Althrincham area, for cash, but AFAIK, is still having to work pretty hard to keep up with all the other attendant outgoings of life and the obligatory (in his and my opinion) "rainy day" fund. (And no, he does not have a stupid car on tick to pay for!)

[turbobloke]

Digga said:

MycroftWard said:

jonah35 said:

I know a 26 year old that bought in london a few years ago aged 22-23 ish and theyve just made £350k on their flat. Moving back to manchester, buying a nice house outright and going to work part time for the next 42 years!

Its like pass the parcel in London, all good fun but when the music stops whoever is left holding the parcel will be upset!

Good for them. Greater fool theory working well.

Also, knowing (south) Manchester well, greatly depends on your definition of what constitutes a great house and desirable neighbourhood.

One of my mates spent a few years working in Dubai and bought his house, a nice 3 bed Victorian semi in Althrincham area, for cash, but AFAIK, is still having to work pretty hard to keep up with all the other attendant outgoings of life and the obligatory (in his and my opinion) "rainy day" fund. (And no, he does not have a stupid car on tick to pay for!)

If he's married how's his Next Divorce Fund getting along, bearing in mind the New Big Mortgage element?

If he's not married, prenups are gaining ground in UK law apparently, though coke and hookers may turn out cheaper.

[Digga]

turbobloke said:

Digga said:

MycroftWard said:

jonah35 said:

I know a 26 year old that bought in london a few years ago aged 22-23 ish and theyve just made £350k on their flat. Moving back to manchester, buying a nice house outright and going to work part time for the next 42 years!

Its like pass the parcel in London, all good fun but when the music stops whoever is left holding the parcel will be upset!

Good for them. Greater fool theory working well.

Also, knowing (south) Manchester well, greatly depends on your definition of what constitutes a great house and desirable neighbourhood.

One of my mates spent a few years working in Dubai and bought his house, a nice 3 bed Victorian semi in Althrincham area, for cash, but AFAIK, is still having to work pretty hard to keep up with all the other attendant outgoings of life and the obligatory (in his and my opinion) "rainy day" fund. (And no, he does not have a stupid car on tick to pay for!)

If he's married how's his Next Divorce Fund getting along, bearing in mind the New Big Mortgage element?

If he's not married, prenups are gaining ground in UK law apparently, though coke and hookers may turn out cheaper.

Getting married very shortly.

Fortunately, to a (very nice) girl who is independently wealthy (i.e. has own career and had own house up until moving in with him last year).

[turbobloke]

Digga said:

turbobloke said:

Digga said:

MycroftWard said:

jonah35 said:

I know a 26 year old that bought in london a few years ago aged 22-23 ish and theyve just made £350k on their flat. Moving back to manchester, buying a nice house outright and going to work part time for the next 42 years!

Its like pass the parcel in London, all good fun but when the music stops whoever is left holding the parcel will be upset!

Good for them. Greater fool theory working well.

Also, knowing (south) Manchester well, greatly depends on your definition of what constitutes a great house and desirable neighbourhood.

One of my mates spent a few years working in Dubai and bought his house, a nice 3 bed Victorian semi in Althrincham area, for cash, but AFAIK, is still having to work pretty hard to keep up with all the other attendant outgoings of life and the obligatory (in his and my opinion) "rainy day" fund. (And no, he does not have a stupid car on tick to pay for!)

If he's married how's his Next Divorce Fund getting along, bearing in mind the New Big Mortgage element?

If he's not married, prenups are gaining ground in UK law apparently, though coke and hookers may turn out cheaper.

Getting married very shortly.

Fortunately, to a (very nice) girl who is independently wealthy (i.e. has own career and had own house up until moving in with him last year).

OK he's downgraded from Red but only to Red-Amber as they're all 'nice' at that point but remain able to Spend It Like Beckham - and at the time of a possible future divorce may not be so nice and will Grab It Like Charman.

If Mark Dixon (Regus) had to sell stock to manage his divorce payment, selling a house may be on the cards for lesser mortals so the New Big Mortgage Fund remains as mitigation...or prenups all round.

Matrimony is just soooo romantic

[okgo]

Justayellowbadge said:

Did he have help?

Not many 22 year olds buy half a million plus properties.

You could have made that on a lesser property in the right parts of London I think. Somewhere like Camberwell you'd have managed it on far less than a 500k place.

Quite a few examples from a quick look, but this one looks like it shows the maths

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/29858674?...

Under 5 years, 400k increase if they sell for £600k

Edited by okgo on Monday 14th April 15:57

[Justayellowbadge]

okgo said:

Justayellowbadge said:

Did he have help?

Not many 22 year olds buy half a million plus properties.

You could have made that on a lesser property in the right parts of London I think. Somewhere like Camberwell you'd have managed it on far less than a 500k place.

Zoopla has Camberwell overall as an increase of 22% in the last 4 years.

Trying to think of anywhere that has more than doubled in that period, but can't.

[Fotic]

Justayellowbadge said:

Zoopla has Camberwell overall as an increase of 22% in the last 4 years.

Trying to think of anywhere that has more than doubled in that period, but can't.

try Brixton. You could quite easily have done that in the last ; years.

[okgo]

Justayellowbadge said:

Zoopla has Camberwell overall as an increase of 22% in the last 4 years.

Trying to think of anywhere that has more than doubled in that period, but can't.

Yes, of course, but if you buy the right place you'll far outdo the blanket increase.

See my link above, could find places in East London where you'd have done the same, and areas of South too.

[V8 Fettler]

Camberwell? That's the front line between Peckham and Brixton, as I recall.

Perhaps things have improved over the years.

[Justayellowbadge]

okgo said:

Justayellowbadge said:

Did he have help?

Not many 22 year olds buy half a million plus properties.

You could have made that on a lesser property in the right parts of London I think. Somewhere like Camberwell you'd have managed it on far less than a 500k place.

Quite a few examples from a quick look, but this one looks like it shows the maths

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/29858674?...

Under 5 years, 400k increase if they sell for £600k

Edited by okgo on Monday 14th April 15:57

Sorry to keep arguing, but the sold prices on that road tell a different story, they were 400+ 4 years ago.

[z4chris99]

mate brought 2 years ago inbetween Brixton and clapham north. paid 315 for 2/3 bed ground and 1st with garden.

it's up at 600/625k now

[Fotic]

Check out one bedders in Sw2 like I said. Available for 1-140k 4 years ago....now mid to high 300s/400.

[okgo]

Justayellowbadge said:

Sorry to keep arguin, but the sold prices on that road tell a different story, they were 400+ 4 years ago.

Well that one wasn't, these are just literally very quick searches, there will be a whole host of places and properties out there sub 500k where you'd have made 300k in last 5 years.

Few in east here -

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32661423?...

Dalston here, doubled - http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32585823?...

Doubled - http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32411698?...

Close to Dalston - doubled and less than 500k http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32683996?...

[scenario8]

Justayellowbadge said:

okgo said:

Justayellowbadge said:

Did he have help?

Not many 22 year olds buy half a million plus properties.

You could have made that on a lesser property in the right parts of London I think. Somewhere like Camberwell you'd have managed it on far less than a 500k place.

Quite a few examples from a quick look, but this one looks like it shows the maths

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/29858674?...

Under 5 years, 400k increase if they sell for £600k

Edited by okgo on Monday 14th April 15:57

Sorry to keep arguing, but the sold prices on that road tell a different story, they were 400+ 4 years ago.

I got lost in that evidence, too. Outside of perhaps a few very unusual "investment decisions" (mostly complete flukes in my book) you'd have needed a few quid to have made a few quid in very recent years.

[okgo]

Taken five mins and I think its fairly clear its possible. I haven't bothered looking at flats, but as Chris and Fotic mention, there will be places you'd have done that on a flat without too much difficulty.

[Justayellowbadge]

okgo said:

Well that one wasn't, these are just literally very quick searches, there will be a whole host of places and properties out there sub 500k where you'd have made 300k in last 5 years.

Few in east here -

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32661423?...

Dalston here, doubled - http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32585823?...

Doubled - http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32411698?...

Close to Dalston - doubled and less than 500k http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32683996?...

Right. Listed prices all more than 4 years old.

All half a million or thereabouts.

The original premise was that someone could have made 350K profit, since 2010, on something for less than 500K originally.

Any of those?

I'm sure there might be a couple of 150K places that have shot up to 500k, but there won't be many.

[okgo]

He never said £150k did he? And a few could be 5-6 as much as 3-4...

Ok, few more here - http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/31156527?... - 300k two years

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32622425?...

5-6 years http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32622425?...

OK, this is longer at 8 years, but 6x increase http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32011853?...

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32479904?... - 300k 4 years