How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Mark Carney said:
The issue around the housing market in the UK ... is there are not sufficient numbers of houses being built... We're not going to build a single house at the Bank of England. We can't influence that.
What we can influence is whether the banks are strong enough. Do they have enough capital against risk in the housing market? [We can also] check lending procedures so people can get mortgages if they can afford them but they won't if they can't. By reinforcing both of those, we can reduce the risk that comes from a housing market that has deep, deep structural problems.
We don't want to build up another big debt overhang that is going to hurt individuals and is very much going to slow the economy in the medium term. We'd be concerned if there was a rapid increase in high loan-to-value mortgages across the banks. We've seen that creeping up and it's something we're watching closely.
The biggest risk to financial stability, and therefore to the durability of the expansion, centers on the housing market and that's why we're focused on that.
More later today in an interview with Sky News.What we can influence is whether the banks are strong enough. Do they have enough capital against risk in the housing market? [We can also] check lending procedures so people can get mortgages if they can afford them but they won't if they can't. By reinforcing both of those, we can reduce the risk that comes from a housing market that has deep, deep structural problems.
We don't want to build up another big debt overhang that is going to hurt individuals and is very much going to slow the economy in the medium term. We'd be concerned if there was a rapid increase in high loan-to-value mortgages across the banks. We've seen that creeping up and it's something we're watching closely.
The biggest risk to financial stability, and therefore to the durability of the expansion, centers on the housing market and that's why we're focused on that.
Art0ir said:
Mark Carney said:
The issue around the housing market in the UK ... is there are not sufficient numbers of houses being built... We're not going to build a single house at the Bank of England. We can't influence that.
What we can influence is whether the banks are strong enough. Do they have enough capital against risk in the housing market? [We can also] check lending procedures so people can get mortgages if they can afford them but they won't if they can't. By reinforcing both of those, we can reduce the risk that comes from a housing market that has deep, deep structural problems.
We don't want to build up another big debt overhang that is going to hurt individuals and is very much going to slow the economy in the medium term. We'd be concerned if there was a rapid increase in high loan-to-value mortgages across the banks. We've seen that creeping up and it's something we're watching closely.
The biggest risk to financial stability, and therefore to the durability of the expansion, centers on the housing market and that's why we're focused on that.
More later today in an interview with Sky News.What we can influence is whether the banks are strong enough. Do they have enough capital against risk in the housing market? [We can also] check lending procedures so people can get mortgages if they can afford them but they won't if they can't. By reinforcing both of those, we can reduce the risk that comes from a housing market that has deep, deep structural problems.
We don't want to build up another big debt overhang that is going to hurt individuals and is very much going to slow the economy in the medium term. We'd be concerned if there was a rapid increase in high loan-to-value mortgages across the banks. We've seen that creeping up and it's something we're watching closely.
The biggest risk to financial stability, and therefore to the durability of the expansion, centers on the housing market and that's why we're focused on that.
Quite amusing listening to them, they were quite embarrassed at the increase, playing it down. I hope they sell, they're a lovely couple, but it's just crazy.
Pork said:
Art0ir said:
Mark Carney said:
The issue around the housing market in the UK ... is there are not sufficient numbers of houses being built... We're not going to build a single house at the Bank of England. We can't influence that.
What we can influence is whether the banks are strong enough. Do they have enough capital against risk in the housing market? [We can also] check lending procedures so people can get mortgages if they can afford them but they won't if they can't. By reinforcing both of those, we can reduce the risk that comes from a housing market that has deep, deep structural problems.
We don't want to build up another big debt overhang that is going to hurt individuals and is very much going to slow the economy in the medium term. We'd be concerned if there was a rapid increase in high loan-to-value mortgages across the banks. We've seen that creeping up and it's something we're watching closely.
The biggest risk to financial stability, and therefore to the durability of the expansion, centers on the housing market and that's why we're focused on that.
More later today in an interview with Sky News.What we can influence is whether the banks are strong enough. Do they have enough capital against risk in the housing market? [We can also] check lending procedures so people can get mortgages if they can afford them but they won't if they can't. By reinforcing both of those, we can reduce the risk that comes from a housing market that has deep, deep structural problems.
We don't want to build up another big debt overhang that is going to hurt individuals and is very much going to slow the economy in the medium term. We'd be concerned if there was a rapid increase in high loan-to-value mortgages across the banks. We've seen that creeping up and it's something we're watching closely.
The biggest risk to financial stability, and therefore to the durability of the expansion, centers on the housing market and that's why we're focused on that.
Quite amusing listening to them, they were quite embarrassed at the increase, playing it down. I hope they sell, they're a lovely couple, but it's just crazy.
Out here in the real world we are hoping policymakers will look outside of London !!!!
powerstroke said:
Inside the M25 might as well be another country !!!
Out here in the real world we are hoping policymakers will look outside of London !!!!
Living in Bedford house prices are just back to 2007 levels and sales volumes are around half. No shortage at all, if anything an oversupply with many developments still being marketed long after completion. I travel a lot and that's typical of huge amounts of the country. We have very short memories for these things. London is completely different. Out here in the real world we are hoping policymakers will look outside of London !!!!
turbobloke said:
Randy Winkman said:
Boom and bust is fundamental to capitalism isn't it?
As per the continuous lingering bust and bust of communism?Randy Winkman said:
turbobloke said:
Randy Winkman said:
Boom and bust is fundamental to capitalism isn't it?
As per the continuous lingering bust and bust of communism?turbobloke said:
Cyclic movements in an economy like ours seem inevitable, sentiment matters and unless optimism and pessimism are abolished, boom and bust won't be abolished.
Fair enough. If someone can afford it, the main concern when buying a terraced house in West London for £x million is "Will it be worth more next year?". Randy Winkman said:
turbobloke said:
Cyclic movements in an economy like ours seem inevitable, sentiment matters and unless optimism and pessimism are abolished, boom and bust won't be abolished.
Fair enough. If someone can afford it, the main concern when buying a terraced house in West London for £x million is "Will it be worth more next year?". 
New to this thread, but it's all very interesting to watch for me.
I've viewed a few properties in the 400-450k bracket in Wimbledon recently - every one I've viewed has had multiple young couples looking round at the same time as me. Every one I've viewed has gone within a week, at ~3-4% above asking.
There's obviously huge Bank of Mum and Dad support going on - £110k deposits magic'd up by a pair of 27 year olds. So two causes for concern:
a) How much of that support is loan vs. gift? How many of these BOMAD loans are being disclosed to the mortgage lenders?
b) Many of the Mums and Dads will have housing wealth but not incomes to match. My hunch is not that many will have £100k spare - instead they're raising it through re-mortaging the family home.
I'm reasonably confident the bubble will deflate, but how, and when, I just can't work out.
I've viewed a few properties in the 400-450k bracket in Wimbledon recently - every one I've viewed has had multiple young couples looking round at the same time as me. Every one I've viewed has gone within a week, at ~3-4% above asking.
There's obviously huge Bank of Mum and Dad support going on - £110k deposits magic'd up by a pair of 27 year olds. So two causes for concern:
a) How much of that support is loan vs. gift? How many of these BOMAD loans are being disclosed to the mortgage lenders?
b) Many of the Mums and Dads will have housing wealth but not incomes to match. My hunch is not that many will have £100k spare - instead they're raising it through re-mortaging the family home.
I'm reasonably confident the bubble will deflate, but how, and when, I just can't work out.
brickwall said:
New to this thread, but it's all very interesting to watch for me.
I've viewed a few properties in the 400-450k bracket in Wimbledon recently - every one I've viewed has had multiple young couples looking round at the same time as me. Every one I've viewed has gone within a week, at ~3-4% above asking.
There's obviously huge Bank of Mum and Dad support going on - £110k deposits magic'd up by a pair of 27 year olds. So two causes for concern:
a) How much of that support is loan vs. gift? How many of these BOMAD loans are being disclosed to the mortgage lenders?
b) Many of the Mums and Dads will have housing wealth but not incomes to match. My hunch is not that many will have £100k spare - instead they're raising it through re-mortaging the family home.
I'm reasonably confident the bubble will deflate, but how, and when, I just can't work out.
Stories like this won't help you, I'm afraid.I've viewed a few properties in the 400-450k bracket in Wimbledon recently - every one I've viewed has had multiple young couples looking round at the same time as me. Every one I've viewed has gone within a week, at ~3-4% above asking.
There's obviously huge Bank of Mum and Dad support going on - £110k deposits magic'd up by a pair of 27 year olds. So two causes for concern:
a) How much of that support is loan vs. gift? How many of these BOMAD loans are being disclosed to the mortgage lenders?
b) Many of the Mums and Dads will have housing wealth but not incomes to match. My hunch is not that many will have £100k spare - instead they're raising it through re-mortaging the family home.
I'm reasonably confident the bubble will deflate, but how, and when, I just can't work out.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27425255
Justayellowbadge said:
Yes I saw that one! 
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff