How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
lepetitoeuf said:
Congratulations 
I will concede that I have met some decent ones, just in case there are any nice ones reading this (I know one Camden based agency who are genuinely nice guys and one of them frequents PH)
Thank you.I will concede that I have met some decent ones, just in case there are any nice ones reading this (I know one Camden based agency who are genuinely nice guys and one of them frequents PH)
Indeed there are some decent ones unfortunately too many uneducated oinks leave school with no prospects and want to earn relatively decent money with no qualifications so they have a choice, get a trade (to much hard work) go on the dole or become an Estate agent!
Need I say more
Edited by Melman Giraffe on Wednesday 20th August 13:05
gibbon said:
Im glad it worked out for you, however I would hazard a guess that historically more people have lost out by this method than gained. I know a couple who sold up at the 'crazy prices' this time last year roughly, they are currently renting whilst waiting for their dream house to come up at a price they can afford, they are having to change their search area, and not for the better. They would now struggle to buy back the flat they sold.
That's the important difference. I wasn't trying to profit from the market (except to get into a better position as a chain-free buyer) or guess the market (except to lock in my sale). I was also prepared to pay 10% over to get the property I wanted, so it was a gamble of course but a calculated one. As for the '13 year' example above, his goal appears to have been to make a profit, not I need to get a property in the next 12 months. I've gone through 2 sell and rent episodes so I must be doing something right ..Edited by fido on Wednesday 20th August 13:04
NomduJour said:
One of those £750k pretend warehouse flats in not-quite-trendy-enough E-whatever would have me twitching.
Apart from - Fulham isn't going to change, its what it is, and always will be a pleasant area. Peckham can only improve...I agree good stuff sells for top money, but I'd still not be too worried about having my cash in a place in an emerging borough. Clapham, yes I read your posts, they're very interesting, but I do wonder how many people think about the market in the complexity that you do when they're looking to buy...
Anyway, with regards to what I will do, I take your point, however its already happening in the area I live. Dreamland pricing for the open day, people wake up and realise 700k for a 2 bed cottage in the burbs is mental, and then it sits there, until slowly it starts coming down £50k at a time. Its happening with loads of properties, and good ones too in good roads. Very few from what I can tell are getting pounced on at the dreamland figure on the open day...
Similar happened in my locale this time last year, the difference was there was little stock, so prices didn't need to drop to attract interest, there just wasn't enough choice for sellers to need to. Then it dragged on a little with sluggish sales on average stock in the run up til Xmas, save the good stuff which always flies (see Tonker's post above).
Then the low stock level did its usual trick in January when all hell broke loose, as it usually does.
So if the pattern repeats then of course, the impact of rate rises/ change of Gov may play on people's minds, but for the last 5/6 years low sales have fuelled the pent up demand, which means this year in particular prices have gone nuts, so a slow down now may mean the sum total of f
k all, it usually does, and the papers are bored of prices rising, and need to fill the pages somehow.
Then the low stock level did its usual trick in January when all hell broke loose, as it usually does.
So if the pattern repeats then of course, the impact of rate rises/ change of Gov may play on people's minds, but for the last 5/6 years low sales have fuelled the pent up demand, which means this year in particular prices have gone nuts, so a slow down now may mean the sum total of f
k all, it usually does, and the papers are bored of prices rising, and need to fill the pages somehow.TLandCruiser said:
especially when just last week they were saying prices are set to rise in East Anglia over the next year by 5.9%, really no one really knows whats going to happen as every week else is said. Take the BOE interest rate for example, just the other day interest rates were said to stay the same until next year at least, now today the news is making it out as if rates are going up next week.
East Anglia is still has relatively very inexpensive property, whether it be a landed mansion or two bed mid terrace. Its also has localised hotspots one of those being Cambridge and surrounding villages as well as some coastal towns / villages. With the Cambridge Science Park about to be massively expanded during the next twenty years and the transport infrastructure now being seriously considered its a great time to buy a long term property, imo. fido said:
Croutons said:
So if the pattern repeats then of course, the impact of rate rises/ change of Gov may play on people's minds
It won't just play on people's minds but on their credit facility as the BoE will cap mortgage lending (>4.5x) from October 2014.ClaphamGT3 said:
fido said:
Croutons said:
So if the pattern repeats then of course, the impact of rate rises/ change of Gov may play on people's minds
It won't just play on people's minds but on their credit facility as the BoE will cap mortgage lending (>4.5x) from October 2014.Fotic said:
brickwall said:
Back in May, I put in offers on three houses, at asking price. For all three, vendors accepted offers for 3-5% above asking.
Two of those three are now back on the market, at the same asking price. It'll be interesting to see what they go for this time. (/what I could get them for...)
But even assuming the properties went for asking, that's still a 3-5% drop in 3 months.
It's only a drop in offered price, nothing more. The sale didn't complete in May at that price so it's a meaningless observation really. Two of those three are now back on the market, at the same asking price. It'll be interesting to see what they go for this time. (/what I could get them for...)
But even assuming the properties went for asking, that's still a 3-5% drop in 3 months.
ClaphamGT3 said:
fido said:
Croutons said:
So if the pattern repeats then of course, the impact of rate rises/ change of Gov may play on people's minds
It won't just play on people's minds but on their credit facility as the BoE will cap mortgage lending (>4.5x) from October 2014.I'm curious as I just borrowed 5.5X earlier this year, and will be due to re-mortgage in two years, it will be interesting seeing the state of the market if I'm above some sort of cap...
(Although I intend to save HARD for the next two years and get it below 4.5X anyway)
Blue Oval84 said:
ClaphamGT3 said:
fido said:
Croutons said:
So if the pattern repeats then of course, the impact of rate rises/ change of Gov may play on people's minds
It won't just play on people's minds but on their credit facility as the BoE will cap mortgage lending (>4.5x) from October 2014.I'm curious as I just borrowed 5.5X earlier this year, and will be due to re-mortgage in two years, it will be interesting seeing the state of the market if I'm above some sort of cap...
(Although I intend to save HARD for the next two years and get it below 4.5X anyway)
ClaphamGT3 said:
In summary, the cap is more to do with the lending institution than the borrower. The lender will only be permitted to commit - from memory - 15% of the total volume of their mortgage business to borrowers borrowing in excess of 4.5 x income. Given that, in the aggregate, only something like 8 or 9% of mortgages are for greater than 4.5 multiples, it's a gimmick to appease the retards who read the Wail
I always assumed no more than 4.5 was the max even before the "new" measures.ClaphamGT3 said:
Blue Oval84 said:
ClaphamGT3 said:
fido said:
Croutons said:
So if the pattern repeats then of course, the impact of rate rises/ change of Gov may play on people's minds
It won't just play on people's minds but on their credit facility as the BoE will cap mortgage lending (>4.5x) from October 2014.I'm curious as I just borrowed 5.5X earlier this year, and will be due to re-mortgage in two years, it will be interesting seeing the state of the market if I'm above some sort of cap...
(Although I intend to save HARD for the next two years and get it below 4.5X anyway)
In that case I'll go finance a white Audi A4 TDI and get a new iPhone instead of saving as planned...
Tongue firmly in cheek, I just know how that would rile up some people on PH
well. I'm not sure whats going to happen to the london market, so i've decided to hedge my bets a bit.
I'm selling in E3 for 440k and buying a house in E11 for 385k. The flat might well go up a smidge more due to its location but when you look at what it will rent for (which was always option B for us if we couldnt sell for a good price) I think its time to take our money out and buy a house we can live in/extend/not get shafted by the managing agents etc.
long term, I remain positive about london property. I think a lot of people are realising that the cost of a season ticket, especially for 2 professional, is a pretty crippling amount of money to spend each month, compared to living centrally when you can cycle to work or get a bus/tube for not that much money each month. ok so the property costs you a bit more than it would if you were living in harlow or luton [insert AN Other dull and souless commuter town) but when you are saving 600 a quid on train travel that can make a massive dent in the mortgage each month.
I'll probably get a loft extension done in the new place (assuming it all goes to plan) which will probably cost me 40 grand, but that asides we should be mortgage free in 5 years I reckon - and that will only be possible because we havent been hemorrhaging money to the train company each month..
I'm selling in E3 for 440k and buying a house in E11 for 385k. The flat might well go up a smidge more due to its location but when you look at what it will rent for (which was always option B for us if we couldnt sell for a good price) I think its time to take our money out and buy a house we can live in/extend/not get shafted by the managing agents etc.
long term, I remain positive about london property. I think a lot of people are realising that the cost of a season ticket, especially for 2 professional, is a pretty crippling amount of money to spend each month, compared to living centrally when you can cycle to work or get a bus/tube for not that much money each month. ok so the property costs you a bit more than it would if you were living in harlow or luton [insert AN Other dull and souless commuter town) but when you are saving 600 a quid on train travel that can make a massive dent in the mortgage each month.
I'll probably get a loft extension done in the new place (assuming it all goes to plan) which will probably cost me 40 grand, but that asides we should be mortgage free in 5 years I reckon - and that will only be possible because we havent been hemorrhaging money to the train company each month..
princeperch said:
well. I'm not sure whats going to happen to the london market, so i've decided to hedge my bets a bit.
I'm selling in E3 for 440k and buying a house in E11 for 385k. The flat might well go up a smidge more due to its location but when you look at what it will rent for (which was always option B for us if we couldnt sell for a good price) I think its time to take our money out and buy a house we can live in/extend/not get shafted by the managing agents etc.
long term, I remain positive about london property. I think a lot of people are realising that the cost of a season ticket, especially for 2 professional, is a pretty crippling amount of money to spend each month, compared to living centrally when you can cycle to work or get a bus/tube for not that much money each month. ok so the property costs you a bit more than it would if you were living in harlow or luton [insert AN Other dull and souless commuter town) but when you are saving 600 a quid on train travel that can make a massive dent in the mortgage each month.
I'll probably get a loft extension done in the new place (assuming it all goes to plan) which will probably cost me 40 grand, but that asides we should be mortgage free in 5 years I reckon - and that will only be possible because we havent been hemorrhaging money to the train company each month..
Some people chose to move out for more space, quieter living, less sirens/traffic or whatever. For me, I'd rather be 26 mins from Kings Cross and have a massive garden, great schools, rolling countryside 2 mins walk down the road etc....although I do miss the cycling to work.I'm selling in E3 for 440k and buying a house in E11 for 385k. The flat might well go up a smidge more due to its location but when you look at what it will rent for (which was always option B for us if we couldnt sell for a good price) I think its time to take our money out and buy a house we can live in/extend/not get shafted by the managing agents etc.
long term, I remain positive about london property. I think a lot of people are realising that the cost of a season ticket, especially for 2 professional, is a pretty crippling amount of money to spend each month, compared to living centrally when you can cycle to work or get a bus/tube for not that much money each month. ok so the property costs you a bit more than it would if you were living in harlow or luton [insert AN Other dull and souless commuter town) but when you are saving 600 a quid on train travel that can make a massive dent in the mortgage each month.
I'll probably get a loft extension done in the new place (assuming it all goes to plan) which will probably cost me 40 grand, but that asides we should be mortgage free in 5 years I reckon - and that will only be possible because we havent been hemorrhaging money to the train company each month..
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