How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[TLandCruiser]

z4RRSchris99 said:

not really. I dont see any reasonable deals of 75/80/85/90/95 LTV.

I bet you a nice bottle of wine the London market crashes before 1st jan 2017.

You said the banks were now only offering a max 60% ltv, when infact you can still get 90%/95% ltv mortgages from all the big and small, the interest rates they offering now for high ltvs, have been around the same since the boe rate dropped.

I don't see no major crash in the housing market, slow down or slight dip maybe. Your on regarding the bottle of wine I like red and to clarify shall we say you win if greater than 30% drop across the UK?

Edited by TLandCruiser on Tuesday 28th October 11:30

[z4RRSchris99]

TLandCruiser said:

You said the banks were now only offering a max 60% ltv, when infact you can still get 90%/95% ltv mortgages from all the big and small lenders, now your changing it to reasonable deals when the interest rates they offering now for high ltvs have been around the same since the boe rate dropped.

I don't see no major crash in the housing market, slow down or slight dip maybe. Your on regarding the bottle of wine I like red and to clarify shall we say you win if greater than 30% drop across the UK?

London not the UK. 30% drop I win. Deal?

I dont mind a red also.

[LucreLout]

z4RRSchris99 said:

not really. I dont see any reasonable deals of 75/80/85/90/95 LTV.

I bet you a nice bottle of wine the London market crashes before 1st jan 2017.

I'll bet you £20 to charity if you like? If it crashes before 2017 (50% off) I'll give the note to shelter. When it doesn't, you give it to RBL or HFH.


ETA: I see later posts have plummed for 30%. I'm happy to go with that if you or someone else wishes to take the bet.

Edited by LucreLout on Tuesday 28th October 12:16

[vescaegg]

z4RRSchris99 said:

London not the UK. 30% drop I win. Deal?

I dont mind a red also.

A 30% drop in London? No chance.

But happy to put a bottle or two on it being up 30% by 2017

Edited by vescaegg on Tuesday 28th October 12:33

[Sheepshanks]

z4RRSchris99 said:

If the market crashes ill be jobless.

...then making bets on that happening seems a bit rash.

[z4RRSchris99]

Sheepshanks said:

z4RRSchris99 said:

If the market crashes ill be jobless.

...then making bets on that happening seems a bit rash.

i just am immersed in it all day every day and can see it coming, the market at the moment is very unhealthy and is basically a big ponzi scheme.

ill go do something else for a few years untill there is life back in it, but the crash is coming.

[TLandCruiser]

z4RRSchris99 said:

London not the UK. 30% drop I win. Deal?

I dont mind a red also.

It's a deal

What do you do by the way?

[Fittster]

Esseesse said:

Fittster said:

XJ40 said:

Fittster said:

Well I've just exchanged.

Er, congratulations?

From an economic point of view I don't think this is a great time to be buying, however sometimes family life has to be put first.

At least I'll have somewhere to go and sulk in piece when I end up in negative equity.

Have you sold as well or FTB?

Sold to someone who has watched one too many episodes of Property Ladder. They suggested they were going to substantially extended the property (loft conversion, extended the back of the property to add bigger kitchen and extra bedroom). They weren't a builder, just a keen amateur, who would live in the property while the work was being done.

If I wanted a bigger house in the area it would seem easier to buy one that is already bigger than extended the one I just sold but I've no experience in property development.

The house that I sold is in a decent area of a provincial city.

Edited by Fittster on Tuesday 28th October 13:26

[turbobloke]

TLandCruiser said:

z4RRSchris99 said:

London not the UK. 30% drop I win. Deal?

I dont mind a red also.

It's a deal

What do you do by the way?

[z4RRSchris99]

TLandCruiser said:

It's a deal

What do you do by the way?

inhouse doing sales & aquisitions for a prime London developer.

[fido]

z4RRSchris99 said:

inhouse doing sales & aquisitions for a prime London developer.

Out of interest, which countries are the biggest buyers from at the moment?

[Justayellowbadge]

z4RRSchris99 said:

TLandCruiser said:

It's a deal

What do you do by the way?

inhouse doing sales & aquisitions for a prime London developer.

Why would you be out of a job?

A prepared developer would surely be making hay with the acquisitions at 60% off peak. It would be the biggest land grab in London's history.

[LucreLout]

z4RRSchris99 said:

inhouse doing sales & aquisitions for a prime London developer.

You might be the first estate agent I ever heard predict a crash!
With labours recent poll slump, I think the odds of a significant London crash retreated a little.

I'm looking to move to the next level in the ladder in about a year, so a crash would do me nicely, but I simply don't see it coming. Not enough forced sellers, not enough rate rises to up the ante, and not enough building to soak up pent up demand.
May I ask why you see a significant crash (apologies to all if you answered that in the previous 100 pages)?

[vescaegg]

fido said:

z4RRSchris99 said:

inhouse doing sales & aquisitions for a prime London developer.

Out of interest, which countries are the biggest buyers from at the moment?

Russia and the Middle East almost exclusively (China comes into it but not as much) from my experience.

[jonny70]

z4RRSchris99 said:

London not the UK. 30% drop I win. Deal?

I dont mind a red also.

If London prices fall surely, this will have a knock on effect over the rest of the UK and subsequently prices will tumble across the country.

[z4RRSchris99]

fido said:

Out of interest, which countries are the biggest buyers from at the moment?

depends on sector, the lower stuff asian buyers make up most of it.
upper lot depends on area, russians have gone away a bit, ME are a bit more active than before.

Justayellowbadge said:

Why would you be out of a job?

A prepared developer would surely be making hay with the acquisitions at 60% off peak. It would be the biggest land grab in London's history.

Thats great if you have a huge balance sheet and are listed etc. If you are more on the private equity side you need to find an investor to fund a purchase in a market that has just taken a hammering. If you were clever you would be building offices now, but try finding an investor who wants to do anything other than resi.

LucreLout said:

You might be the first estate agent I ever heard predict a crash!
With labours recent poll slump, I think the odds of a significant London crash retreated a little.

I'm looking to move to the next level in the ladder in about a year, so a crash would do me nicely, but I simply don't see it coming. Not enough forced sellers, not enough rate rises to up the ante, and not enough building to soak up pent up demand.
May I ask why you see a significant crash (apologies to all if you answered that in the previous 100 pages)?

developer not agent!
forced sellers will come with rate rises and when the 40k prime units being built at the moment complete.
pent up demand? at what level? how many buyers want to pay £1500psf? £2000psf? £2500psf? £3000psf?

vescaegg said:

Russia and the Middle East almost exclusively (China comes into it but not as much) from my experience.

Under £1000psf its the chinese who get there first. See Ram in wandsworth, Greenwich sites etc.
Over that its a mixed bag and like i said depends on area. Russians like the postcodes, ME like a bit more space and value. Chinese like new, Brits like old etc etc etc

[vescaegg]

z4RRSchris99 said:

Under £1000psf its the chinese who get there first. See Ram in wandsworth, Greenwich sites etc.
Over that its a mixed bag and like i said depends on area. Russians like the postcodes, ME like a bit more space and value. Chinese like new, Brits like old etc etc etc

Our highest value ones (15-20k sqft+ at £1500-2000/sfqf range) only ever get viewed by Russian and Middle Eastern buyers but we generally dont build in town.

London obviously has a different appeal for buyers though.

Edited by vescaegg on Tuesday 28th October 14:28

Edited by vescaegg on Tuesday 28th October 14:28

[Esseesse]

Fittster said:

Esseesse said:

Fittster said:

XJ40 said:

Fittster said:

Well I've just exchanged.

Er, congratulations?

From an economic point of view I don't think this is a great time to be buying, however sometimes family life has to be put first.

At least I'll have somewhere to go and sulk in piece when I end up in negative equity.

Have you sold as well or FTB?

Sold to someone who has watched one too many episodes of Property Ladder. They suggested they were going to substantially extended the property (loft conversion, extended the back of the property to add bigger kitchen and extra bedroom). They weren't a builder, just a keen amateur, who would live in the property while the work was being done.

If I wanted a bigger house in the area it would seem easier to buy one that is already bigger than extended the one I just sold but I've no experience in property development.

The house that I sold is in a decent area of a provincial city.

Edited by Fittster on Tuesday 28th October 13:26

Well as you've sold as well don't worry too much about it not being the right time, you've only exposed yourself extra by the difference at a possible high point in the market rather than the whole amount.

We should be moving some time in December I expect, solicitors currently doing their thing. I agree with your sentiment about not quite being a great time to be buying, but we need the room and I think it should be a good house. Ours needs some modernisation, and I hope after not too many thousands spent that it would more or less hold what we paid for it through any moderate market correction. It's all academic though as I don't intend to move any time soon (maybe forever, who knows) and our mortgage isn't mental.

[z4RRSchris99]

vescaegg said:

Our highest value ones (20k sqft+ at £1500-2000/sfqf range) only ever get viewed by Russian and Middle Eastern buyers but we generally dont build in town.

London obviously has a different appeal for buyers though.

Edited by vescaegg on Tuesday 28th October 14:28

those are big cap values, I find the asians wont go above £2m.

[jonny70]

LucreLout said:

The government and BoE have pretty much drawn a line in the sand with regard to house prices. They just won't allow them to fall so af as it would bust the banks and the country to the extent that recovery would be nearly impossible.

Im not saying there will be a crash but its naive to think that the government can control a market .(they can in the short run through major influence)
If history has taught us anything the government/BOE can influence a market but ultimately the markets are more powerful than influence/government (in the long run). The government have heavily influenced the property market since the credit crunch with 0.5% rates/ZIR/HLB,mortgage liquidity schemes etc Look through history there have always been peaks and downturns its part of the economic cycle ,governments cant stop a downturn .