How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[scenario8]

burwoodman said:

Sheepshanks said:

alfaman said:

Maybe it's just the non-commutable to London areas which are flat or slightly down on 2007 peak?

I live on the outskirts of a Cheshire village and the house next door to me sold in 2006 for £260K. Absolutely no way it would sell for that now - a similar one went for £195K earlier this year.

I think it's post code specific. Surrey (GU8) is +15% on 2007. My old place in Canary Wharf is about even. Zoopla has quite good post code specific %age changes.

In NZ the mentality is 'im doing well' if ones house goes up-many owners then remortgage to buy that boat or holiday (really stupid thing to do) unless you have a really solid income. I realise it's cheap funding but just like with interest only, it creeps up and bites you! A friend over there has been wringing his hands at his on paper gains. I said, errm, but if you sell what are you going to do. Live in a tent?

Godalming's only up 15% in that period? That's a surprise. Canary Wharf only even, though? That must be a very specific case, surely?

[alfaman]

Sheepshanks said:

I live on the outskirts of a Cheshire village and the house next door to me sold in 2006 for £260K. Absolutely no way it would sell for that now - a similar one went for £195K earlier this year.

Maybe I should move back to Cheshire if I ever return to he UK - I've been totally priced out of central London by the bloody Chinese / Russians etc

[eltawater]

alfaman said:

Bedford is commutable to London ..

Not to mention to Milton Keynes, Cambridge, Stevenage, Northants, Luton, Peterborough....

Prices tend to rise if you're looking for a place which is walkable to a mainline train station. If you're commuting by car to any of the aforementioned places though, it's well worth looking into a home in one of the outlying villages where prices are very affordable for a decent 3-4 bedroom place.

[Sheepshanks]

alfaman said:

Sheepshanks said:

I live on the outskirts of a Cheshire village and the house next door to me sold in 2006 for £260K. Absolutely no way it would sell for that now - a similar one went for £195K earlier this year.

Maybe I should move back to Cheshire if I ever return to he UK - I've been totally priced out of central London by the bloody Chinese / Russians etc

There was a spate of people selling up in London and moving into Cheshire villages a few years ago so they could instantly be mortgage free - and then commuting to London on a weekly basis, which strikes me as bonkers.

I don't personally know of anyone new doing it for a few years, but I've had to drive back from the SE on a Friday afternoon/evening a few times over the last few months and the traffic has been horrendous.

[burwoodman]

scenario8 said:

burwoodman said:

Sheepshanks said:

alfaman said:

Maybe it's just the non-commutable to London areas which are flat or slightly down on 2007 peak?

I live on the outskirts of a Cheshire village and the house next door to me sold in 2006 for £260K. Absolutely no way it would sell for that now - a similar one went for £195K earlier this year.

I think it's post code specific. Surrey (GU8) is +15% on 2007. My old place in Canary Wharf is about even. Zoopla has quite good post code specific %age changes.

In NZ the mentality is 'im doing well' if ones house goes up-many owners then remortgage to buy that boat or holiday (really stupid thing to do) unless you have a really solid income. I realise it's cheap funding but just like with interest only, it creeps up and bites you! A friend over there has been wringing his hands at his on paper gains. I said, errm, but if you sell what are you going to do. Live in a tent?

Godalming's only up 15% in that period? That's a surprise. Canary Wharf only even, though? That must be a very specific case, surely?

Based on zoopla you'd be correct. Godalming up 25% but as you say it is almost cluster of property specific. Some local houses are still lagging peak 2007 sale prices. Some people in that time really did get carried away with the loose lending and high ltv

[Sheepshanks]

burwoodman said:

I think it's post code specific. Surrey (GU8) is +15% on 2007. My old place in Canary Wharf is about even. Zoopla has quite good post code specific %age changes.

How are you going back so far - Zoopla only has overall stats going back 5yrs? It'll show you specific house price further back, but not an overview.

My daughter bought a house in 2010 and paid less for it than the vendors paid in 2005. Zoopla shows the area as up 5% since 2009 but (if that's correct) it's still not back to its 2005 level.

[jdw1234]

I bought in North Hampshire in 2012.

Adjusted for inflation I paid below what the previous owner paid in 2006.

[burwoodman]

Sheepshanks said:

burwoodman said:

I think it's post code specific. Surrey (GU8) is +15% on 2007. My old place in Canary Wharf is about even. Zoopla has quite good post code specific %age changes.

How are you going back so far - Zoopla only has overall stats going back 5yrs? It'll show you specific house price further back, but not an overview.

My daughter bought a house in 2010 and paid less for it than the vendors paid in 2005. Zoopla shows the area as up 5% since 2009 but (if that's correct) it's still not back to its 2005 level.

I'm not. It just so happens I sold my Canary Wharf property at the peak. In 2001 cost $430k. In 2006 still stuck at £500k due to stamp duty change. In 2007 I was sick of the tenants and got it valued. Jumped to £700k(sold in a week over asking). That buyer sold it again a few months ago for £900k but spend £150k+ on it. Current property was a new build detached house in Surrey in 2007. We just purchased it (last month or so) for what it sold for in 2007.

[Bullett]

In Berkshire we sold in 2012 for the same as we bought at in 2006.
Even back in 2006 we knew other houses on the estate have gone for 20-40k more off plan for the same design. The original buyers of our place lost £20k (divorce/forced sale).

In 2014 the same design again has sold for £300k £315k and £340k

[GreatGranny]

Sheepshanks said:

I live on the outskirts of a Cheshire village and the house next door to me sold in 2006 for £260K. Absolutely no way it would sell for that now - a similar one went for £195K earlier this year.

My parents live in a village on north Cheshire and the prices gave yet to recover.
Bungalows are pretty strong but 3-4 bed houses are struggling.

[XJ40]

alfaman said:

Esseesse said:

Well just before the crash in 07, OH bought a house for £230k (and IMO she paid over the odds). We have recently sold for £250k, completing in the next month or so. So in absolute terms up nearly 10%, this is in Bedford so not very close to London.

Bedford is commutable to London ..

The +10% sounds about right . Prices in South Beds (20-30 min train to London ) are approx 5% -10% ish above 2007 peak.

I reckon South Bucks also up 10%+ or more... And would guess good areas even nearer in or on the met line up a bit more.
Maybe it's just the non-commutable to London areas which are flat or slightly down on 2007 peak?

I agree regarding Beds, I actually live in mid-Beds myself, I've just moved. We're seeing the effect of London money out here, some people are moving north. Our neighbours have just moved in too, they've come up from Watford, for example.

[XJ40]

Derek Chevalier said:

XJ40 said:

Derek Chevalier said:

I was unable to find a sensible view in there, it was a load of garbage

Okay, well perhaps you'd like to inform us as to why? Are you saying the figures given by the Land Registry are wrong?

If you accept the figures then the journalist is saying that, if London is excluded, property is 16% down from '07 in absolute terms and 35% down when factoring in inflation. That doesn't look much like a bubble to me either.

Have earning kept track with inflation?

It depends doesn't it. If you are low skilled or work in the public sector, then probably not. If you have a professional career then I'd say there's a good chance that your wages have kept track with inflation or bettered it. So you can look at the average figures for wage inflation which are pulled down by those at the bottom as it were, but there's plenty of people out there buying property via mortgages who are more likely to be of the mid to high earning bracket.

[GlenMH]

London money is certainly driving the period property market in Bristol.

House very close to me sold in 2010 for £370k, needing complete modernisation and refurb. £150k and 4 years later, went on the market in September @ £650k asking and sold within 2 weeks to a London buyer....

Lots of other anecdotal evidence from people I trust about cash offers being made from Londoners coming west.

[okgo]

London money will drive sales anywhere that is half way pleasant...

[Derek Chevalier]

XJ40 said:

Derek Chevalier said:

XJ40 said:

Derek Chevalier said:

I was unable to find a sensible view in there, it was a load of garbage

Okay, well perhaps you'd like to inform us as to why? Are you saying the figures given by the Land Registry are wrong?

If you accept the figures then the journalist is saying that, if London is excluded, property is 16% down from '07 in absolute terms and 35% down when factoring in inflation. That doesn't look much like a bubble to me either.

Have earning kept track with inflation?

It depends doesn't it. If you are low skilled or work in the public sector, then probably not. If you have a professional career then I'd say there's a good chance that your wages have kept track with inflation or bettered it. So you can look at the average figures for wage inflation which are pulled down by those at the bottom as it were, but there's plenty of people out there buying property via mortgages who are more likely to be of the mid to high earning bracket.

Private sector is averaging 0.6% aqccording to this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10892575/...

[XJ40]

Derek Chevalier said:

Private sector is averaging 0.6% aqccording to this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10892575/...

Interesting, I take your point regarding the private sector as a whole, though the piece is saying that pay growth has declined from 2% in the last year so this is a new trend.

There still no doubt that, beside London, the surround areas and hotspots that see an influx of London money, UK property prices are below the '07 peak so are by no means booming. Or are you begging to differ?

[Derek Chevalier]

XJ40 said:

Derek Chevalier said:

Private sector is averaging 0.6% aqccording to this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10892575/...

Interesting, I take your point regarding the private sector as a whole, though the piece is saying that pay growth has declined from 2% in the last year so this is a new trend.

There still no doubt that, beside London, the surround areas and hotspots that see an influx of London money, UK property prices are below the '07 peak so are by no means booming. Or are you begging to differ?

My point is that we shouldn't be comparing to 2007, which was the peak of the greatest property (ongoing) bubble in UK history.

[XJ40]

Derek Chevalier said:

My point is that we shouldn't be comparing to 2007, which was the peak of the greatest property (ongoing) bubble in UK history.

But since then we've had the biggest recession/depression in UK history, or at least in living memory, since the '30's. Prices have had their chance to correct in the years since.

Okay, we have the BofE base rate on the deck. But the reality is that, unless people have some kind of +0% over base lifetime tracker, they aren't likely to be now paying 0.5% for their mortgage.

[Esseesse]

XJ40 said:

Derek Chevalier said:

My point is that we shouldn't be comparing to 2007, which was the peak of the greatest property (ongoing) bubble in UK history.

But since then we've had the biggest recession/depression in UK history, or at least in living memory, since the '30's. Prices have had their chance to correct in the years since.

Okay, we have the BofE base rate on the deck. But the reality is that, unless people have some kind of +0% over base lifetime tracker, they aren't likely to be now paying 0.5% for their mortgage.

Isn't it strange that during the biggest recession/depression in UK living memory (for most), that I'm unaware of anyone I know losing their job certainly because of it, people queue round the block to buy iPhones, roads are swept, bins collected etc etc. If it wasn't on the news I wouldn't have noticed.

[Pork]

Esseesse said:

Isn't it strange that during the biggest recession/depression in UK living memory (for most), that I'm unaware of anyone I know losing their job certainly because of it, people queue round the block to buy iPhones, roads are swept, bins collected etc etc. If it wasn't on the news I wouldn't have noticed.

Couldn't agree more.

It seems the Great Depression means a couple of peope waited a few extra weeks for their new Audi or in extreme cases cut their holiday down to ten days instead of there usual 14.

Perhaps living in the SE means the reality isn't seen but I would struggle to name online who suffered and real change in their life as a result of the greatest depression in living memory. Maybe I live a charmed life (I dont)