How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Pork said:
Esseesse said:
Isn't it strange that during the biggest recession/depression in UK living memory (for most), that I'm unaware of anyone I know losing their job certainly because of it, people queue round the block to buy iPhones, roads are swept, bins collected etc etc. If it wasn't on the news I wouldn't have noticed.
Couldn't agree more. It seems the Great Depression means a couple of peope waited a few extra weeks for their new Audi or in extreme cases cut their holiday down to ten days instead of there usual 14.
Perhaps living in the SE means the reality isn't seen but I would struggle to name online who suffered and real change in their life as a result of the greatest depression in living memory. Maybe I live a charmed life (I dont)
Pork said:
Couldn't agree more.
It seems the Great Depression means a couple of peope waited a few extra weeks for their new Audi or in extreme cases cut their holiday down to ten days instead of there usual 14.
Perhaps living in the SE means the reality isn't seen but I would struggle to name online who suffered and real change in their life as a result of the greatest depression in living memory. Maybe I live a charmed life (I dont)
If you really see the last six years like that I'm surprised. Thousands of retailers out of business, gone! Big names too. House prices which in real terms have dropped hugely. Wages that for millions make every month a struggle with the constant threat of unemployment. Figures massaged by the government to make things look better but the reality is for most, a very very tough time.It seems the Great Depression means a couple of peope waited a few extra weeks for their new Audi or in extreme cases cut their holiday down to ten days instead of there usual 14.
Perhaps living in the SE means the reality isn't seen but I would struggle to name online who suffered and real change in their life as a result of the greatest depression in living memory. Maybe I live a charmed life (I dont)
Thankyou4calling said:
If you really see the last six years like that I'm surprised. Thousands of retailers out of business, gone! Big names too. House prices which in real terms have dropped hugely. Wages that for millions make every month a struggle with the constant threat of unemployment. Figures massaged by the government to make things look better but the reality is for most, a very very tough time.
It was a bit tongue in cheek, and I do recall walking around a couple of towns and seeing empty shops etc but from my personal perspective, I.e. My own eyes not East I see/read, few have seen spending dropped or house prices. In fact, i hear far more people bragging about their house prices or flash holiday than I do moaning about their hardships which is at odds with the headlines.Again, maybe this might be because I live in the South East, or possibly that people i know are too proud to moan. When I think about friends and relatives not in The SE, yes, the story is quite different.
Pork said:
It was a bit tongue in cheek, and I do recall walking around a couple of towns and seeing empty shops etc but from my personal perspective, I.e. My own eyes not East I see/read, few have seen spending dropped or house prices. In fact, i hear far more people bragging about their house prices or flash holiday than I do moaning about their hardships which is at odds with the headlines.
Again, maybe this might be because I live in the South East, or possibly that people i know are too proud to moan. When I think about friends and relatives not in The SE, yes, the story is quite different.
Who knows. House prices outside of London and localised hotspots are only about at 2007/08 levels, that's the majority of houses.Again, maybe this might be because I live in the South East, or possibly that people i know are too proud to moan. When I think about friends and relatives not in The SE, yes, the story is quite different.
Tell someone who's bought a two bed terrace in Twickenham for 695k ( my brother) that you can buy a very nice 4 bed detached for 250k in huge swathes of the UK and they'll laugh.
Likewise it's easy to sit in traffic coming into London and think everyone has a 64 plate Mercedes but they don't.
I'm by nature an optimist but I know that times are very hard for many. In some cases prices have had to readjust to people's pockets, look at the rise of budget supermarkets, gyms, flights, hotels, pound shops etc.
Many, many live week to week or month to month.
Back to houses, lots say there house is worth xxxx, they don't know until they try and sell and are often in for a shock at how hard it can be to shift, how long it takes.
Edited by Thankyou4calling on Friday 7th November 09:02
Thankyou4calling said:
If you really see the last six years like that I'm surprised. Thousands of retailers out of business, gone! Big names too. House prices which in real terms have dropped hugely. Wages that for millions make every month a struggle with the constant threat of unemployment. Figures massaged by the government to make things look better but the reality is for most, a very very tough time.
I don't think retailers going is anything to do with the recession, although the slow down may have been the straw... it would have happened in not too long anyway. IMO retailers have gone mainly because of changing shopping habits. How often do you go into town? The last shop I went to was Ikea about 3 weeks ago because I had to physically sit on and try their mattresses. Before that it was many many months, just about everything I buy I order online. Supermarkets still get a weekly visit from us though, but that's just about it.Edited by Esseesse on Friday 7th November 11:21
Esseesse said:
XJ40 said:
Derek Chevalier said:
My point is that we shouldn't be comparing to 2007, which was the peak of the greatest property (ongoing) bubble in UK history.
But since then we've had the biggest recession/depression in UK history, or at least in living memory, since the '30's. Prices have had their chance to correct in the years since. Okay, we have the BofE base rate on the deck. But the reality is that, unless people have some kind of +0% over base lifetime tracker, they aren't likely to be now paying 0.5% for their mortgage.
It seems quite clear to me that we've a two speed house price market - there's London, home counties, plus a few localised hotspots on the one hand, and virtually everywhere else on the other. It's obviously not a coincidence that there's a concentration of well paying jobs in the afore mentioned areas.
I should think many who live in the north of England, Wales, Scotland, NI, would scoff at talk of a house price bubble? Some may still be in negative equity, and I'm sure there's many who still need interest rates to stay low for the foreseeable future.
I live in South Bucks. It seems to me that the madness has abated a little I must say. Prices do, anecdotally, seem to be coming down quite a bit. Sentiment has shifted if you ask me. It will be interesting to see what young George can do to keep it upright. I wouldn't write off his personal ambition myself. My own humble opinion is that the s
t has hit the fan. The tools that the BOE and the gouvernment are using to try to balance the housing market are very unwieldy and, I daresay, quite hard to control and the law of unintended consequences looms large. Fannying about with delayed rate rises and greater regulation is all very well but people, myself included, are generally pretty thick and tend to move in a herd.
t has hit the fan. The tools that the BOE and the gouvernment are using to try to balance the housing market are very unwieldy and, I daresay, quite hard to control and the law of unintended consequences looms large. Fannying about with delayed rate rises and greater regulation is all very well but people, myself included, are generally pretty thick and tend to move in a herd. I spend a fair bit of time in the Witterings down on the south coast.
The last 18 months or so have seen things get a little heated and it shows no sign of abating at present.
Pretty much anything that sells is clad in blue/grey and asymmetric feature windows overlooking gravel in no time at all.
It's like the whole place shares one dog eared copy of a Hamptons magazine article from the early 2000s.
Yet it continues to rise.
The last 18 months or so have seen things get a little heated and it shows no sign of abating at present.
Pretty much anything that sells is clad in blue/grey and asymmetric feature windows overlooking gravel in no time at all.
It's like the whole place shares one dog eared copy of a Hamptons magazine article from the early 2000s.
Yet it continues to rise.
The announcement of 'Help to Buy' spooked a lot of first time buyers (in the south east at least) into thinking it was now or never when it came to getting on the housing ladder, and that's rippled up the market to some extent. I'm told the large house builders went out and hoovered up a lot of the available construction materials when help to buy was announced. There can be no doubt that from the governments point of view it's done it's job.
Derek Chevalier said:
XJ40 said:
I should think many who live in the north of England, Wales, Scotland, NI, would scoff at talk of a house price bubble?
With the exception of Ireland a lot of these prices are still 50% more expensive relative to earnings than in 2000. How can that not be a bubble?Derek Chevalier said:
XJ40 said:
I should think many who live in the north of England, Wales, Scotland, NI, would scoff at talk of a house price bubble?
With the exception of Ireland a lot of these prices are still 50% more expensive relative to earnings than in 2000. How can that not be a bubble?Edited by XJ40 on Friday 7th November 16:55
Esseesse said:
Derek Chevalier said:
XJ40 said:
I should think many who live in the north of England, Wales, Scotland, NI, would scoff at talk of a house price bubble?
With the exception of Ireland a lot of these prices are still 50% more expensive relative to earnings than in 2000. How can that not be a bubble?So potential recession next year http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/16/david...
So what do we think and will it have the same impact on house prices as last time?
So what do we think and will it have the same impact on house prices as last time?
If it wasn't in the news i would have thought the economy is booming.
Everyone on ph likes to think that while they're doing ok everyone else is scraping by.
Everyone nowadays has a gym membership, iphone, newish car, holidays abroad, Sky, nights out etc. what more do people want? Ok some in Surrey ,any want a nanny to bring up their children or a large Range Rover that they can't park or a school to send their kids to that they don't enjoy or a boarding school where their kids miss their parents but in the real world most have it easy.
Cheap phones, cheap supermarkets, cheap flights, cheap hotels, cheap car leases, cheap utilities, cheap mortgages.
We have never had it so good, but read the wail and it is as if the world is coming crashing down.
Oh, the stock market is near record highs too.
Everyone on ph likes to think that while they're doing ok everyone else is scraping by.
Everyone nowadays has a gym membership, iphone, newish car, holidays abroad, Sky, nights out etc. what more do people want? Ok some in Surrey ,any want a nanny to bring up their children or a large Range Rover that they can't park or a school to send their kids to that they don't enjoy or a boarding school where their kids miss their parents but in the real world most have it easy.
Cheap phones, cheap supermarkets, cheap flights, cheap hotels, cheap car leases, cheap utilities, cheap mortgages.
We have never had it so good, but read the wail and it is as if the world is coming crashing down.
Oh, the stock market is near record highs too.
jonah35 said:
If it wasn't in the news i would have thought the economy is booming.
Everyone on ph likes to think that while they're doing ok everyone else is scraping by.
Everyone nowadays has a gym membership, iphone, newish car, holidays abroad, Sky, nights out etc. what more do people want? Ok some in Surrey ,any want a nanny to bring up their children or a large Range Rover that they can't park or a school to send their kids to that they don't enjoy or a boarding school where their kids miss their parents but in the real world most have it easy.
Cheap phones, cheap supermarkets, cheap flights, cheap hotels, cheap car leases, cheap utilities, cheap mortgages.
We have never had it so good, but read the wail and it is as if the world is coming crashing down.
Oh, the stock market is near record highs too.
Cheap flights,? Everyone on ph likes to think that while they're doing ok everyone else is scraping by.
Everyone nowadays has a gym membership, iphone, newish car, holidays abroad, Sky, nights out etc. what more do people want? Ok some in Surrey ,any want a nanny to bring up their children or a large Range Rover that they can't park or a school to send their kids to that they don't enjoy or a boarding school where their kids miss their parents but in the real world most have it easy.
Cheap phones, cheap supermarkets, cheap flights, cheap hotels, cheap car leases, cheap utilities, cheap mortgages.
We have never had it so good, but read the wail and it is as if the world is coming crashing down.
Oh, the stock market is near record highs too.
Which countries are in the bands?
A (2,000 miles – includes Ireland, the Channel Islands, Spain, Portugal, France, Greece, the Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands, Tunisia, Turkey, Italy and Russia (West of the Urals)) – £13 reduced rate; £26 standard rate; £52 higher rate.
B (4,000 miles – includes the US, Canada, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Lebanon, Ivory Coast, Israel, Gambia) – £69 reduced rate; £138 standard rate; £276 higher rate.
C (6,000 miles – includes the Caribbean destinations of Barbados, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic and Cuba; South American countries such as Brazil, Belize and Colombia; South Africa, Burma, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Kenya, India, the Maldives, Mauritius and the Seychelles) – £85 reduced rate; £170 standard rate; £340 higher rate.
D (Australia and New Zealand for example) – £97 reduced rate; £194 standard rate; £388 higher rate.
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