How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[ClaphamGT3]

baptistsan said:

So potential recession next year http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/16/david...

So what do we think and will it have the same impact on house prices as last time?

Yes, let's not forget that this is an article written by David Cameron 6 months before an election he's looking stubbornly likely to lose to Labour. Do you not think he has a bit of a vested interest in peddling a message of we're not out of the economic woods yet - let's not leave the fragile recovery to the two Eds?

[NomduJour]

jonah35 said:

We have never had it so good

And how is it all funded?

[Looket]

jonah35 said:

If it wasn't in the news i would have thought the economy is booming.

Everyone on ph likes to think that while they're doing ok everyone else is scraping by.

Everyone nowadays has a gym membership, iphone, newish car, holidays abroad, Sky, nights out etc. what more do people want? Ok some in Surrey ,any want a nanny to bring up their children or a large Range Rover that they can't park or a school to send their kids to that they don't enjoy or a boarding school where their kids miss their parents but in the real world most have it easy.

Cheap phones, cheap supermarkets, cheap flights, cheap hotels, cheap car leases, cheap utilities, cheap mortgages.

We have never had it so good, but read the wail and it is as if the world is coming crashing down.

Oh, the stock market is near record highs too.

See bolded part for the answer to your own question.

[Yazar]

NomduJour said:

jonah35 said:

We have never had it so good

And how is it all funded?

Shush now.

That is clearly for our children and their children to worry about. Let the debt party continue.

[Mermaid]

Yazar said:

Shush now.

That is clearly for our children and their children to worry about. Let the debt party continue.

QE4Ever, it seems that way.

[baptistsan]

ClaphamGT3 said:

Yes, let's not forget that this is an article written by David Cameron 6 months before an election he's looking stubbornly likely to lose to Labour. Do you not think he has a bit of a vested interest in peddling a message of we're not out of the economic woods yet - let's not leave the fragile recovery to the two Eds?

Indeed. But considering the Japanese economy has just taken a bit of a dive, there may be something in it.

[Magog]

baptistsan said:

ClaphamGT3 said:

Yes, let's not forget that this is an article written by David Cameron 6 months before an election he's looking stubbornly likely to lose to Labour. Do you not think he has a bit of a vested interest in peddling a message of we're not out of the economic woods yet - let's not leave the fragile recovery to the two Eds?

Indeed. But considering the Japanese economy has just taken a bit of a dive, there may be something in it.

It seems fairly foolish for Cameron to come out and say the warning lights on the dashboard are starting to flash, when so much activity in a modern economy is reliant on consumer and business confidence. It's hardly going to help sentiment is it.

[jonah35]

Walford said:

jonah35 said:

If it wasn't in the news i would have thought the economy is booming.

Everyone on ph likes to think that while they're doing ok everyone else is scraping by.

Everyone nowadays has a gym membership, iphone, newish car, holidays abroad, Sky, nights out etc. what more do people want? Ok some in Surrey ,any want a nanny to bring up their children or a large Range Rover that they can't park or a school to send their kids to that they don't enjoy or a boarding school where their kids miss their parents but in the real world most have it easy.

Cheap phones, cheap supermarkets, cheap flights, cheap hotels, cheap car leases, cheap utilities, cheap mortgages.

We have never had it so good, but read the wail and it is as if the world is coming crashing down.

Oh, the stock market is near record highs too.

Cheap flights,?

Which countries are in the bands?

A (2,000 miles – includes Ireland, the Channel Islands, Spain, Portugal, France, Greece, the Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands, Tunisia, Turkey, Italy and Russia (West of the Urals)) – £13 reduced rate; £26 standard rate; £52 higher rate.

B (4,000 miles – includes the US, Canada, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Lebanon, Ivory Coast, Israel, Gambia) – £69 reduced rate; £138 standard rate; £276 higher rate.

C (6,000 miles – includes the Caribbean destinations of Barbados, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic and Cuba; South American countries such as Brazil, Belize and Colombia; South Africa, Burma, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Kenya, India, the Maldives, Mauritius and the Seychelles) – £85 reduced rate; £170 standard rate; £340 higher rate.

D (Australia and New Zealand for example) – £97 reduced rate; £194 standard rate; £388 higher rate.

Flights anywhere are cheap. Europe often under £200 and America often £500 ish.

Wouldn't have been able to do that 20 years ago, 50 or 100 years ago.

[jonah35]

NomduJour said:

jonah35 said:

We have never had it so good

And how is it all funded?

Most people have savings and more people are enrolled in pensions than ever before.

The government is borrowing money but it doesn't affect me in the real world.

[NomduJour]

jonah35 said:

Most people have savings and more people are enrolled in pensions than ever before.

The government is borrowing money but it doesn't affect me in the real world.

Pretty sure most couldn't survive for a year without income, and how are all those pensions funded?

Government debt and borrowing doesn't affect you "in the real world"? OK ...

[Fittster]

Magog said:

baptistsan said:

ClaphamGT3 said:

Yes, let's not forget that this is an article written by David Cameron 6 months before an election he's looking stubbornly likely to lose to Labour. Do you not think he has a bit of a vested interest in peddling a message of we're not out of the economic woods yet - let's not leave the fragile recovery to the two Eds?

Indeed. But considering the Japanese economy has just taken a bit of a dive, there may be something in it.

It seems fairly foolish for Cameron to come out and say the warning lights on the dashboard are starting to flash, when so much activity in a modern economy is reliant on consumer and business confidence. It's hardly going to help sentiment is it.

Cameroon and Osborne really don't have a clue when it comes to economics. So they think there's the possibility of hard times just around the corner? There solution more austerity.

FFS. If the world economy tanks gilts are going to have even lower yields and it's time for fiscal policy to support growth.

Either his prediction is incompetent or his response to it is.

[NomduJour]

There is no austerity. It's a figment of the Left's imagination.

[Fittster]

NomduJour said:

There is no austerity. It's a figment of the Left's imagination.

You don't think there have been cuts to the welfare budget?

The trouble is austerity is damaging to the economy, reduces the tax take and widens the deficit.

"In one thing, the Chancellor has succeeded: he has delivered cuts to programs. By the fiscal year 2014, he will have slashed more than ten per cent from overall spending by U.K. government departments, according to the I.F.S. While some departments—including the National Health Service, overseas aid, and part of the education budget—are protected from the economic measure, others have seen savage budget reductions. But this hasn’t led to the improvement in the government finances that Osborne and his supporters predicted. As a result of the renewed slump, tax revenues are lower than expected and spending on benefits for the unemployed has risen. Overall government spending has continued to rise; the budget deficit has remained stubbornly high. And that’s why Osborne still will need to borrow so much money."

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/u-k-les...

[JagLover]

Fittster said:

Cameroon and Osborne really don't have a clue when it comes to economics. So they think there's the possibility of hard times just around the corner? There solution more austerity.

FFS. If the world economy tanks gilts are going to have even lower yields and it's time for fiscal policy to support growth.

Either his prediction is incompetent or his response to it is.

There hasn't really been any "austerity". Some modest curbs on welfare spending and the growth in public sector pay have been greeted by the left with great hysteria. When the money runs out then we will see austerity.

The policy since 2010 has been mainly to kick the can down the road. Running a persistently high deficit and reinflating the housing bubble. There have been some modest efforts to improve the business climate but nothing like the structural reforms needed.

[Thankyou4calling]

jonah35 said:

Flights anywhere are cheap. Europe often under £200 and America often £500 ish.

Wouldn't have been able to do that 20 years ago, 50 or 100 years ago.

I can't agree with that.

I used to regularly fly to the US on charter flights 20 years ago for £100 or less return. That was to Orlando or New York.

It's gone up significantly in that time.

[LucreLout]

NomduJour said:

There is no austerity. It's a figment of the Left's imagination.

:shock: say it isn't so!

What about these 5 years of "savage cuts to essential public services"? Yeah, I'd not noticed any real world effect either.

Austerity is going to have to come, whoever wins the next election or two.

We've tried holding spending level and it hasn't worked. The only option on the table for the next two governments is real austerity: real cuts, such that there is revenue left over to cut taxes, invest in the road network, and go for growth. Real growth as opposed to digging holes and filling them I make work growth.

[XJ40]

LucreLout said:

What about these 5 years of "savage cuts to essential public services"? Yeah, I'd not noticed any real world effect either.

Austerity is going to have to come, whoever wins the next election or two.

We've tried holding spending level and it hasn't worked. The only option on the table for the next two governments is real austerity: real cuts, such that there is revenue left over to cut taxes, invest in the road network, and go for growth. Real growth as opposed to digging holes and filling them I make work growth.

I don't agree, the government figures show that the deficit is steadily reducing, albeit not as quickly as some would like. Chopping back government spending ultimately reduces the tax take, prompting more austerity, then your looking at a downward spiral/race to the bottom. The coalition have handled a bad situation well in my view.

[XJ40]

jonah35 said:

If it wasn't in the news i would have thought the economy is booming.

Everyone on ph likes to think that while they're doing ok everyone else is scraping by.

Everyone nowadays has a gym membership, iphone, newish car, holidays abroad, Sky, nights out etc. what more do people want? Ok some in Surrey ,any want a nanny to bring up their children or a large Range Rover that they can't park or a school to send their kids to that they don't enjoy or a boarding school where their kids miss their parents but in the real world most have it easy.

Cheap phones, cheap supermarkets, cheap flights, cheap hotels, cheap car leases, cheap utilities, cheap mortgages.

We have never had it so good, but read the wail and it is as if the world is coming crashing down.

Oh, the stock market is near record highs too.

I agree that many have a relatively high standard of living these days, there's no shortage of consumer goods about that's for sure. The problem is that it can be relative, even though someone may live like a king in relation to historic and global average standards, if the Jones next door is doing better then there can be discontentment. Most people I know are like "everyone" you describe, but outside London/home counties/south east I've heard that some people are quite hard up.

[XJ40]

Yazar said:

NomduJour said:

jonah35 said:

We have never had it so good

And how is it all funded?

Shush now.

That is clearly for our children and their children to worry about. Let the debt party continue.

Exponentially increasing debt, but also exponential monetary inflation, asset prices, etc. just seems to be how capitalism works, personally it doesn't bother me. At the end of the day, debt is just a man made concept, a number in a computer, a mechanism to allow us to progress. Maybe down the line some of this debt we all owe each other will have to be written off, so be it.

[LucreLout]

XJ40 said:

Exponentially increasing debt, but also exponential monetary inflation, asset prices, etc. just seems to be how capitalism works, personally it doesn't bother me. At the end of the day, debt is just a man made concept, a number in a computer, a mechanism to allow us to progress. Maybe down the line some of this debt we all owe each other will have to be written off, so be it.

Writing off my debt means writing off your assets. It means no public sector pensions, for these are a debt. It means no premium bonds. It means no cash in the bank. Any bank. It means a busted stock market.
Writing off debt is an easy thing to say and a tricky thing to do, assuming you want to avoid economic armageddon.
Better to cut taxes meaning people have more money to repay their debts. Better to reintroduce miras, meaning people can afford their mortgages.