How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

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AstonZagato

12,705 posts

210 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
XJ40 said:
Yazar said:
NomduJour said:
jonah35 said:
We have never had it so good
And how is it all funded?
Shush now.

That is clearly for our children and their children to worry about. Let the debt party continue.
Exponentially increasing debt, but also exponential monetary inflation, asset prices, etc. just seems to be how capitalism works, personally it doesn't bother me. At the end of the day, debt is just a man made concept, a number in a computer, a mechanism to allow us to progress. Maybe down the line some of this debt we all owe each other will have to be written off, so be it.
That is worryingly cavalier. It will bankrupt some and enrich others. The effects are not spread evenly. In particular it creates a skewed incentive structure. Those that are prudent and save for the long-term are the most likely to be impoverished. Those that are reckless and overleveraged are the most likely to end up richer.

And endless and limitless expansion of the money supply is not a good thing.

In the Weimar Republic, people were sent their life's savings by banks as it was not longer worth them keeping the accounts open. The stamp on the envelope cost more than the value of the savings.

Reading "When Money Dies" by Adam Fergusson gives an insight to what happens when the state thinks it can keep deficit spending by endless debasement of the currency. It is worth noting (though I am not invoking Godwin's here) that it led to a totalitarian regime.

The following maxim was probably born from that experience:

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."

XJ40

5,983 posts

213 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
LucreLout said:
Writing off my debt means writing off your assets. It means no public sector pensions, for these are a debt. It means no premium bonds. It means no cash in the bank. Any bank. It means a busted stock market.
Writing off debt is an easy thing to say and a tricky thing to do, assuming you want to avoid economic armageddon.
Better to cut taxes meaning people have more money to repay their debts. Better to reintroduce miras, meaning people can afford their mortgages.
I do hear what your saying, yes writing off large amounts of debt would be problematic I agree, and I hope it doesn't come to that (though I think eventually some sort of amnesty may be required). As I say though, we effectively owe it to each other in a round-about way. The assets, products, scientific and technological advancements created by capitalism and said debt wouldn't disappear though. The material reality would still be the same, though potentially the allocation of it would change around a bit...

AstonZagato

12,705 posts

210 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I agree. To those politicians suggesting it, I'd like to pose this question?

“Since this is an era when many people are concerned about 'fairness' and 'social justice', what is your 'fair share' of what someone else has worked for?” - Thomas Sowell.

princeperch

7,930 posts

247 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
exchanged on the sale of my flat this pm.

paid 250k in Q2 2011 for it. exchanged today for 435k. the service charge has gone up 15 pc in that time and it'll be due a redec in the common parts next year or so too I reckon.

of course the house i'm buying has also gone up in the past 2 years since the bloke has owned it but hes spent 35k on it and it looks good. and there is no service charge. which is worth its weight in gold.

Justayellowbadge

37,057 posts

242 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30094813

Up 12.1% yr on yr, 18.8 in London, according to ONS.

Thankyou4calling

10,606 posts

173 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
princeperch said:
exchanged on the sale of my flat this pm.

paid 250k in Q2 2011 for it. exchanged today for 435k. the service charge has gone up 15 pc in that time and it'll be due a redec in the common parts next year or so too I reckon.

of course the house i'm buying has also gone up in the past 2 years since the bloke has owned it but hes spent 35k on it and it looks good. and there is no service charge. which is worth its weight in gold.
Whereabouts have you sold and bought?

princeperch

7,930 posts

247 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
Thankyou4calling said:
princeperch said:
exchanged on the sale of my flat this pm.

paid 250k in Q2 2011 for it. exchanged today for 435k. the service charge has gone up 15 pc in that time and it'll be due a redec in the common parts next year or so too I reckon.

of course the house i'm buying has also gone up in the past 2 years since the bloke has owned it but hes spent 35k on it and it looks good. and there is no service charge. which is worth its weight in gold.
Whereabouts have you sold and bought?
sold 1 bed flat E3 - 435

buying 2 (formally 3) bed freehold victorian house in E11 for 388 (which is more than I ideally wanted to spend but they guy has refurb'd it pretty well and has spent a lot of money on it.

to be honest towards the end I actually viewed the flat as more of a liability with the service charge than anything else...

ETA: whilst I say 388 was more than I wanted to spend it was a v fair deal compared to the poor couple who paid 475k for basically the same house nextdoor at the height of the market earlier in the year

:-/



Edited by princeperch on Tuesday 18th November 17:16

Muncher

12,219 posts

249 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
princeperch said:
sold 1 bed flat E3 - 435

buying 2 (formally 3) bed freehold victorian house in E11 for 388 (which is more than I ideally wanted to spend but they guy has refurb'd it pretty well and has spent a lot of money on it.

to be honest towards the end I actually viewed the flat as more of a liability with the service charge than anything else...
The property lawyer I sat with in my first seat got stung for a £15k surcharge, with another £15k due next year. Ouch.

XJ40

5,983 posts

213 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
princeperch said:
exchanged on the sale of my flat this pm.

paid 250k in Q2 2011 for it. exchanged today for 435k. the service charge has gone up 15 pc in that time and it'll be due a redec in the common parts next year or so too I reckon.

of course the house i'm buying has also gone up in the past 2 years since the bloke has owned it but hes spent 35k on it and it looks good. and there is no service charge. which is worth its weight in gold.
Well done on getting there, what a gain in only several years.

princeperch

7,930 posts

247 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
Muncher said:
princeperch said:
sold 1 bed flat E3 - 435

buying 2 (formally 3) bed freehold victorian house in E11 for 388 (which is more than I ideally wanted to spend but they guy has refurb'd it pretty well and has spent a lot of money on it.

to be honest towards the end I actually viewed the flat as more of a liability with the service charge than anything else...
The property lawyer I sat with in my first seat got stung for a £15k surcharge, with another £15k due next year. Ouch.
it was time to get out.

they made me agree to a £500 retention for 18 months which I didnt resist!

Thankyou4calling

10,606 posts

173 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
princeperch said:
sold 1 bed flat E3 - 435

buying 2 (formally 3) bed freehold victorian house in E11 for 388 (which is more than I ideally wanted to spend but they guy has refurb'd it pretty well and has spent a lot of money on it.

to be honest towards the end I actually viewed the flat as more of a liability with the service charge than anything else...
That's great growth in three years. London and the Home Counties really are something special in that respect.

okgo

38,057 posts

198 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
Thankyou4calling said:
That's great growth in three years. London and the Home Counties really are something special in that respect.
not really.

just certain parts of london, I don't think the home counties are even in the same stratosphere as certain, CERTAIN parts of London.

z4RRSchris99

11,290 posts

179 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
house prices dropped 10% in the last 3 months would be a much better story, dont see it being told much?

Thankyou4calling

10,606 posts

173 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
okgo said:
not really.

just certain parts of london, I don't think the home counties are even in the same stratosphere as certain, CERTAIN parts of London.
Well I think to make that much on a flat in an area that isn't the best is fantastic and there are plenty of others like that.

I think had it not been on London or surrounding you wouldn't see that sort of increase. Of course certain parts of London are better than others.

fido

16,799 posts

255 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
Thankyou4calling said:
in an area that isn't the best
You're kidding right? - Hipsterville (Shoreditch, Hackney etc.) whilst not exactly pleasing on the eye [though I admit to hanging out in the arty venues around Hoxton] has been all the rage for the last few years. It's rocketed more than any other part of London - probably double compared to safer parts of London e.g. SWxx

anonymous-user

54 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
okgo said:
Thankyou4calling said:
That's great growth in three years. London and the Home Counties really are something special in that respect.
not really.

just certain parts of london, I don't think the home counties are even in the same stratosphere as certain, CERTAIN parts of London.
Our house in Hertfordshire has gone up 30% in two and half years. I guess it depends where you live in the home counties.

Thankyou4calling

10,606 posts

173 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
fido said:
You're kidding right? - Hipsterville (Shoreditch, Hackney etc.) whilst not exactly pleasing on the eye [though I admit to hanging out in the arty venues around Hoxton] has been all the rage for the last few years. It's rocketed more than any other part of London - probably double compared to safer parts of London e.g. SWxx
No I'm not kidding at all.

I know London very well and E3 isn't Shoreditch or Hackney.


princeperch

7,930 posts

247 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
Thankyou4calling said:
fido said:
You're kidding right? - Hipsterville (Shoreditch, Hackney etc.) whilst not exactly pleasing on the eye [though I admit to hanging out in the arty venues around Hoxton] has been all the rage for the last few years. It's rocketed more than any other part of London - probably double compared to safer parts of London e.g. SWxx
No I'm not kidding at all.

I know London very well and E3 isn't Shoreditch or Hackney.
If I'm buying- e3 is bow

If I'm selling - suddenly becomes shoreditch..

It's just occurred to me our buyers have only viewed the flat once- their one and only viewing. That's a bit odd isn't it.

princeperch

7,930 posts

247 months

Tuesday 18th November 2014
quotequote all
Nope a young married couple. 25 years old. 115k deposit.

XJ40

5,983 posts

213 months

Wednesday 19th November 2014
quotequote all
princeperch said:
It's just occurred to me our buyers have only viewed the flat once- their one and only viewing. That's a bit odd isn't it.
That does seem a bit unusual to me, you'd have thought they'd at least want one more squint at the place as it's quite a bit of dosh to part with. Our buyers were a young couple and keen to come and "measure up" after we accepted their offer.

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