How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[Pork]

princeperch said:

If I'm buying- e3 is bow

If I'm selling - suddenly becomes shoreditch..

It's just occurred to me our buyers have only viewed the flat once- their one and only viewing. That's a bit odd isn't it.

Perhaps they've bought in to the notion of buy now or miss out forever. You snooze, you looze.

[burwoodman]

Pork said:

princeperch said:

If I'm buying- e3 is bow

If I'm selling - suddenly becomes shoreditch..

It's just occurred to me our buyers have only viewed the flat once- their one and only viewing. That's a bit odd isn't it.

Perhaps they've bought in to the notion of buy now or miss out forever. You snooze, you looze.

That's it, correct. A buyer naturally thinks they may lose out and in a rampant market, panic and despair can set in. Back in 2000 I worked with an Australian who couldn't get his head around leasehold (in Aus it's all freehold) so he took 2 years to find a property which was freehold and paid 50% more than he would have 2 years earlier.

[z4RRSchris99]

Pork said:

Perhaps they've bought in to the notion of buy now or miss out forever. You snooze, you looze.

that was the market sentiment about 3/4 months ago. its chilled down now however the younger crowd (often first time buyers) still jump in on stuff.

[XJ40]

[redacted]

[anonymous-user]

[redacted]

[XJ40]

Maybe so, I guess it depends on how it's priced, how long it's been on the market, number of viewings, etc. Still, I don't like to be impulsive when it comes to the big decisions.

[Blue Oval84]

St John Smythe said:

In some parts of the country you'll lose every house you look at if you try that.

Certainly my experience of trying to buy in Brighton earlier this year, anything that wasn't a total sthole was snapped up within a week of listing.

I did eventually get somewhere, but only as third choice buyer (because I only offered slightly over asking) after two other buyers dropped out, in the end the seller got fed up so decided the FTB with a cash deposit and Mortgage AIP was a good bet...

[winshent]

Blue Oval84 said:

Certainly my experience of trying to buy in Brighton earlier this year, anything that wasn't a total sthole was snapped up within a week of listing.

Thats all changed.. Property is just not shifting now..

We had plenty of second viewings..

[anonymous-user]

winshent said:

Blue Oval84 said:

Certainly my experience of trying to buy in Brighton earlier this year, anything that wasn't a total sthole was snapped up within a week of listing.

Thats all changed.. Property is just not shifting now..

We had plenty of second viewings..

Not quite true. Again, depends on the area.

[TheAnimal]

St John Smythe said:

winshent said:

Blue Oval84 said:

Certainly my experience of trying to buy in Brighton earlier this year, anything that wasn't a total sthole was snapped up within a week of listing.

Thats all changed.. Property is just not shifting now..

We had plenty of second viewings..

Not quite true. Again, depends on the area.

E14, Canary Wharf - right now. Property is not shifting in this prime area... Not only the annual Xmas slowdown, but also some buyers are holding out saying they want to wait for spring as they hope more properties will be on the market to choose from. Lending is tighter too and deposits are larger with some lenders.

[winshent]

St John Smythe said:

winshent said:

Blue Oval84 said:

Certainly my experience of trying to buy in Brighton earlier this year, anything that wasn't a total sthole was snapped up within a week of listing.

Thats all changed.. Property is just not shifting now..

We had plenty of second viewings..

Not quite true. Again, depends on the area.

Maybe, we are buying in zone 5, in the Bromley area. It was mental earlier in the year.. Open days were descended on by vultures.. 50 viewings in two hours was common.. And now its been flat since the summer..

Lack of first time buyers.. and tighter control on credit all playing its part..

[fido]

jonah35 said:

Everyone nowadays has a gym membership, iphone, newish car, holidays abroad, Sky, nights out etc. what more do people want? Ok some in Surrey ,any want a nanny to bring up their children or a large Range Rover that they can't park or a school to send their kids to that they don't enjoy or a boarding school where their kids miss their parents but in the real world most have it easy.

I don't have gym membership, Sky, or a large Range Rover. Still on an iPhone 5. But do have a house with no mortgage. That's the issue though isn't it - it's those who live beyond their means that skew the market?

[burwoodman]

fido said:

jonah35 said:

Everyone nowadays has a gym membership, iphone, newish car, holidays abroad, Sky, nights out etc. what more do people want? Ok some in Surrey ,any want a nanny to bring up their children or a large Range Rover that they can't park or a school to send their kids to that they don't enjoy or a boarding school where their kids miss their parents but in the real world most have it easy.

I don't have gym membership, Sky, or a large Range Rover. Still on an iPhone 5. But do have a house with no mortgage. That's the issue though isn't it - it's those who live beyond their means that skew the market?

I agree with this. I know so many people who are hocked up to their eyeballs and run the wealthy/bust cycle more than once. Ironically their main business is property development.

[anonymous-user]

fido said:

I don't have gym membership, Sky, or a large Range Rover. Still on an iPhone 5. But do have a house with no mortgage. That's the issue though isn't it - it's those who live beyond their means that skew the market?

I'm like you - although I am still on an iPhone 4

[Digga]

garyhun said:

fido said:

I don't have gym membership, Sky, or a large Range Rover. Still on an iPhone 5. But do have a house with no mortgage. That's the issue though isn't it - it's those who live beyond their means that skew the market?

I'm like you - although I am still on an iPhone 4

Snap with the iphone, although Mrs Digga has a RR (only because we cannot get up our lane, let alone driveway in winter without 4WD) but as she paid for it with a cheque, drawn from her own earnings, I don't count that. Never any credit card debt and no HP debt for over a decade now and a mortgage of less than 50% of house value that will be paid off within ten years, or a whole lot quicker if we cashed some ISAS.

In contrast, my BIL veers from publicly proclaiming to be on his uppers, to spunking hundreds a month on a new Audi A5 and buying whatever 'phone/gadget and telling everyone how much everything cost. IMHO neither is wise.

[fido]

garyhun said:

I'm like you - although I am still on an iPhone 4

Now that's austerity! (The 4S is just about useable with the latest iOS.)

[anonymous-user]

fido said:

garyhun said:

I'm like you - although I am still on an iPhone 4

Now that's austerity! (The 4S is just about useable with the latest iOS.)

I'm on iOS 7.1.2 and it's a little clunky. Too scared to go beyond that

[topcarrera]

St John Smythe said:

In some parts of the country you'll lose every house you look at if you try that.

Apologies, time for a rant ......

Unfortunately it is this almost lemming like mentality that has shifted the market in many parts of the South East just too close to the abyss and threatens the whole economic stability of the UK; an utterly ridiculous but nonetheless very real situation. I think its almost certain now that an ugly, predominantly South East based mega-correction in the property market will unravel over the course of the next 36 months. Properties in Central London, the better parts of the suburbs and the more desirable towns in the inner parts of the home counties will probably be less affected than the mainstream dross commanding 200K+ price tags in the mundane majority of towns in the South East. Illusory forms of wealth creation were at the heart of the problems facing the economy following the recent wobble a few years ago - fundamentally little has changed. National debt is no lower than five years ago but yet again a South East B*ll Sh*t Bubble seems to be underpinning positive sentiment more so than any substantive "Rebalancing of the Economy" or new real, (i.e. globally relevant) sources of wealth creation. Even making significant allowances for the change in demographics and consequent increase in demand for housing stock the basic numbers, i.e. current property values v realistic ongoing rates of pay just simply don't and never will stack up. The government has a lot to answer for. Government intervention into free markets should be the last resort but there was a strong case over three years ago for moves to quell the rate house price inflation. The government did intervene but with policy that would always have the complete opposite effect of what needed to happen to the market for the sake of the longer term stability of the UK economy. Will be interesting in coming years to see how loudly large parts of middle england moan and blame everyone else but themselves as the market value of their 3 bedroom boxes plummet.

[Mr Whippy]

topcarrera said:

and blame everyone else but themselves as the market value of their 3 bedroom boxes plummet.

And why they would complain makes little sense unless they plan to sell it and live in a cardboard box.

Cheaper houses means it's cheaper for them to move, any re-setting of council tax bands will mean less of a hit, their kids/grand-kids can likely buy a nicer house and live nearby if they want.

It's a win win win for everyone who just owns a home as a home.

For everyone else, well "investments" can go up and down

Dave

[gibbon]

Mr Whippy said:

And why they would complain makes little sense unless they plan to sell it and live in a cardboard box.

Cheaper houses means it's cheaper for them to move, any re-setting of council tax bands will mean less of a hit, their kids/grand-kids can likely buy a nicer house and live nearby if they want.

It's a win win win for everyone who just owns a home as a home.

For everyone else, well "investments" can go up and down

Dave

Would still frustrate even the most mild mannered person if they should have been unlucky enough to have hit a stage in life where they require to buy a home at a time when the prices were at or near the highest. For many, the moment one needs to buy a home isn't always under their control.