How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[ClaphamGT3]

topcarrera said:

St John Smythe said:

In some parts of the country you'll lose every house you look at if you try that.

Apologies, time for a rant ......

Unfortunately it is this almost lemming like mentality that has shifted the market in many parts of the South East just too close to the abyss and threatens the whole economic stability of the UK; an utterly ridiculous but nonetheless very real situation. I think its almost certain now that an ugly, predominantly South East based mega-correction in the property market will unravel over the course of the next 36 months. Properties in Central London, the better parts of the suburbs and the more desirable towns in the inner parts of the home counties will probably be less affected than the mainstream dross commanding 200K+ price tags in the mundane majority of towns in the South East. Illusory forms of wealth creation were at the heart of the problems facing the economy following the recent wobble a few years ago - fundamentally little has changed. National debt is no lower than five years ago but yet again a South East B*ll Sh*t Bubble seems to be underpinning positive sentiment more so than any substantive "Rebalancing of the Economy" or new real, (i.e. globally relevant) sources of wealth creation. Even making significant allowances for the change in demographics and consequent increase in demand for housing stock the basic numbers, i.e. current property values v realistic ongoing rates of pay just simply don't and never will stack up. The government has a lot to answer for. Government intervention into free markets should be the last resort but there was a strong case over three years ago for moves to quell the rate house price inflation. The government did intervene but with policy that would always have the complete opposite effect of what needed to happen to the market for the sake of the longer term stability of the UK economy. Will be interesting in coming years to see how loudly large parts of middle england moan and blame everyone else but themselves as the market value of their 3 bedroom boxes plummet.

You are falling into the trap of believing that the owner/occupier market will remain a significant determinant of residential property prices. You are also vastly over-simplifying the market - every time I see someone using phrases like "predominantly south East based..." Or "Central London...." I see the infallible indicator of someone who doesn't have the 1st damned clue what they're talking about. I really cannot be shagged to rehearse yet again the more nuanced view of the market so just read back over posts that ChrisRRSZ4 and I have made in this thread. He and I differ somewhat on the extent of potential corrections in certain sectors but conceptually have pretty much identical views - but, then, what the hell do he and I know about the property market........

[W124]

I'm sure you know absolutely loads about the housing market. I still think you are fundamentally incorrect.

[NomduJour]

Point is surely that you can know absolutely everything there is to know and the market can still bite you on the arse.

[z4RRSchris99]

W124 said:

I'm sure you know absolutely loads about the housing market. I still think you are fundamentally incorrect.

nah im always right, never wrong.

[W124]

Ok.

[Mr Whippy]

gibbon said:

Mr Whippy said:

And why they would complain makes little sense unless they plan to sell it and live in a cardboard box.

Cheaper houses means it's cheaper for them to move, any re-setting of council tax bands will mean less of a hit, their kids/grand-kids can likely buy a nicer house and live nearby if they want.

It's a win win win for everyone who just owns a home as a home.

For everyone else, well "investments" can go up and down

Dave

Would still frustrate even the most mild mannered person if they should have been unlucky enough to have hit a stage in life where they require to buy a home at a time when the prices were at or near the highest. For many, the moment one needs to buy a home isn't always under their control.

Yes that is the worst case, but assuming it was affordable at the time you buy it still will be.

It's that logic that drives prices ever higher and is no good for anyone.

And there is always renting. It's a risk, but life is a risk.

We spent a decade in a house and made nothing on it sans costs and maintenance. We could have rented in nicer areas, been more mobile for work etc, and saved money equivalent to our equity in the same period.


In the end it'll bite harder the longer it goes uncorrected.

[topcarrera]

ClaphamGT3 said:

You are falling into the trap of believing that the owner/occupier market will remain a significant determinant of residential property prices. You are also vastly over-simplifying the market - every time I see someone using phrases like "predominantly south East based..." Or "Central London...." I see the infallible indicator of someone who doesn't have the 1st damned clue what they're talking about. I really cannot be shagged to rehearse yet again the more nuanced view of the market so just read back over posts that ChrisRRSZ4 and I have made in this thread. He and I differ somewhat on the extent of potential corrections in certain sectors but conceptually have pretty much identical views - but, then, what the hell do he and I know about the property market........

No "nuances" required to understand that basic modest family home market value in certain regions approaching 10+ x local median income cannot be upheld in long-term. Even if the shift towards greater proportion of stock falls within rented sector then similar risk exists - namely that at affordable rents yields at current market prices become unsustainably low. Your suggestion that a more complex economic model beyond the comprehension of many can somehow explain away harsh but quite obvious arithmetic reality is very reminiscent of fashionable economic commentary about 8 years ago.

[princeperch]

I read this today and thought it interesting

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/28/ba...

[z4RRSchris99]

princeperch said:

I read this today and thought it interesting

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/28/ba...

Complete bks, the resale market is now DEAD, as you cant get finance on them,

ive been offered a load of flats at riverlight a few doors down which were purchased in 2011/2012 by equally as 'clever' people thinking they are going to flip. Now its going to complete they are stuck with a flat they dont want and are trying to sell at the exact price they purchased for, which is sub £1000psf.

that said it doesnt stop people thinking they are clever and buying up swathes of london on 10% deposits. A scheme who launched the other day sold 95% to flippers and 5% to end users.

[numtumfutunch]

We bought our place 10 years ago at what I thought was a stupid price, however we had sold our first place at an equally stupid price so I figured we were insulated from the imminent correction

To my amazement the correction still hasnt happened

In the meantime prices in the scummy northern cesspit I happily call home have gone even more stupid
Our manor is nothing special, the local schools are poor and people get shot now and again

Despite this a nurse, teacher or policeman/woman in their 30's has no chance of buying a place around here without significant inheritance or lottery winnings which IMHO shows how stupid things are

The in laws live in a 1930's semi in a semi lawless bit of Laaaarndon comfortably inside the A406
Next door just sold for 850k needing a full renovation
I suspect not everybody in London is a Russian oligarch or merchant banker, and even these people would rather not live in an area where you need a stab vest to buy a pint of milk

The housing market in this country is stupid

Which is exactly what I thought 10 years ago and its just got even more ridiculous

Cheers!!

[okgo]

I doubt there are many places up north where a teacher or nurse couldn't afford to buy a property. Where is it you live? Yarm?

[Sheepshanks]

numtumfutunch said:

Despite this a nurse, teacher or policeman/woman in their 30's has no chance of buying a place around here...

So who is buying around there? As prices increase BTL doesn't add up - although I've still seen property in the NW bought for BTL when the business case isn't obvious.

An EA told me a lot of people aren't that bothered about the precise numbers - they're looking for safe stores for their money and/or they're buying places for their kids to have in xx yrs time. How can normal buyers compete with that?

[heppers75]

Sheepshanks said:

numtumfutunch said:

Despite this a nurse, teacher or policeman/woman in their 30's has no chance of buying a place around here...

So who is buying around there? As prices increase BTL doesn't add up - although I've still seen property in the NW bought for BTL when the business case isn't obvious.

An EA told me a lot of people aren't that bothered about the precise numbers - they're looking for safe stores for their money and/or they're buying places for their kids to have in xx yrs time. How can normal buyers compete with that?

Also where is there?

If you put in the nearest major town and choose 30 or 40 mile radius on Rightmove and put the max price at say £150k how many results do you get? I can pretty much guarantee it is a few hundred or more.

[Pork]

heppers75 said:

Also where is there?

If you put in the nearest major town and choose 30 or 40 mile radius on Rightmove and put the max price at say £150k how many results do you get? I can pretty much guarantee it is a few hundred or more.

What does that show? If you want to drive for an hour plus each day, each way, you can buy? To me, a 2 hour + daily commute to where you want to live does t mean homes are affordable.

[Pork]

numtumfutunch said:

The housing market in this country is stupid

Which is exactly what I thought 10 years ago and its just got even more ridiculous

Cheers!!

I don't suppose you, or many people, anticipated the relaxation in lending and the resulting price increases in homes. I certainly didn't appreciate how home prices would become so fundamental to people's happiness (and perceived financial acumen), and consequently so politically key. There no down sides to home prices rising, right?

[Fittster]

heppers75 said:

If you put in the nearest major town and choose 30 or 40 mile radius on Rightmove and put the max price at say £150k how many results do you get? I can pretty much guarantee it is a few hundred or more.

150K is a lot of money when the UKs average wage is approximately 27.5K,

[heppers75]

Pork said:

heppers75 said:

Also where is there?

If you put in the nearest major town and choose 30 or 40 mile radius on Rightmove and put the max price at say £150k how many results do you get? I can pretty much guarantee it is a few hundred or more.

What does that show? If you want to drive for an hour plus each day, each way, you can buy? To me, a 2 hour + daily commute to where you want to live does t mean homes are affordable.

Well plenty of people do it out of necessity, you do what is needed to make your way in life - there is no right to have a house on the doorstep of your job!

Just out of interest do think it is everyone's right to be able to buy a house within a given distance of any location in the country for under a certain price? If so what is that distance?

[heppers75]

Fittster said:

heppers75 said:

If you put in the nearest major town and choose 30 or 40 mile radius on Rightmove and put the max price at say £150k how many results do you get? I can pretty much guarantee it is a few hundred or more.

150K is a lot of money when the UKs average wage is approximately 27.5K,

Ok do £100k then, you can put within 40 miles of Mayfair and get over 1000 results for houses under £100k.

[Mr Whippy]

okgo said:

I doubt there are many places up north where a teacher or nurse couldn't afford to buy a property. Where is it you live? Yarm?

"North" is quite generalised though.

There are places like Hull and Grimsby which have some fantastic property prices. To the point where you could easily live with just one of a couple working and the other being a home maker. But the job market is probably a bit tougher.

But move over to Harrogate with Leeds and York nearby, and suddenly you need to be a GP or company director to afford that lifestyle, and even then it might be tough!

For most professionals of the graduate generation today, they'll be living in shoe-box new builds their entire lives at the current pricing levels.

Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.

[gibbon]

Mr Whippy said:

For most professionals of the graduate generation today, they'll be living in shoe-box new builds their entire lives at the current pricing levels.

Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.

Until they inherit their parents house, then purchase another home pushing price once more. Increased wealth storage in property within families.