How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
gibbon said:
Until they inherit their parents house, then purchase another home pushing price once more. Increased wealth storage in property within families.
People living longer may need to unlock pent up money in their homes to fund their life styles, lavish or otherwise - they are generally living longer too, my Dad is 56, both his parents are still alive at ages 84 and 81.gibbon said:
Mr Whippy said:
For most professionals of the graduate generation today, they'll be living in shoe-box new builds their entire lives at the current pricing levels.
Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
Until they inherit their parents house, then purchase another home pushing price once more. Increased wealth storage in property within families.Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
Mr Whippy said:
okgo said:
I doubt there are many places up north where a teacher or nurse couldn't afford to buy a property. Where is it you live? Yarm?
"North" is quite generalised though.There are places like Hull and Grimsby which have some fantastic property prices. To the point where you could easily live with just one of a couple working and the other being a home maker. But the job market is probably a bit tougher.
But move over to Harrogate with Leeds and York nearby, and suddenly you need to be a GP or company director to afford that lifestyle, and even then it might be tough!
For most professionals of the graduate generation today, they'll be living in shoe-box new builds their entire lives at the current pricing levels.
Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
Mr Whippy said:
For most professionals of the graduate generation today, they'll be living in shoe-box new builds their entire lives at the current pricing levels.
Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
Is that really true though? Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
I think it is not unreasonable to expect even someone on an average kind of career path if both choose to work after say 10 years of work and a couple of house moves to be in a circa £200k property even if they are only sitting around the £45k a year combined earnings level.
This place is case in point, looks pretty nice to me http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... and that is not an isolated example by any means.
heppers75 said:
Well plenty of people do it out of necessity, you do what is needed to make your way in life - there is no right to have a house on the doorstep of your job!
Just out of interest do think it is everyone's right to be able to buy a house within a given distance of any location in the country for under a certain price? If so what is that distance?
In answer to your final part, yes I do. If the government wants to control house building then it should do its level best to make sure the number of home available matches the number of people that are seeking to work in that location. That means that if there is a need for employed people in a location then there really shouldn't be any restriction on the building of flats/houses. Just out of interest do think it is everyone's right to be able to buy a house within a given distance of any location in the country for under a certain price? If so what is that distance?
I would say a fair calculation of how affordable housing is what can you buy for 3.5 times the average national. If it's only 1 bed flats then the government has a problem.
The government are having their cake and eating it, by on the one hand restricting house building and on the other doing nothing to increase the supply of housing (that is affordable).
The only building that is going on currently in my area are executive style housing where the housebuilding can make a bigger profit. And those houses are selling for 400k+. If I were a house builder I would also be looking to maximize profits, they have no social responsibility to build affordable housing. Which is where the government and housing associations need to step up.
I would like to buy a 2 bed semi, but I am looking at 5 or even 6 x national average wage. And I would never pay that.
sugerbear said:
heppers75 said:
Well plenty of people do it out of necessity, you do what is needed to make your way in life - there is no right to have a house on the doorstep of your job!
Just out of interest do think it is everyone's right to be able to buy a house within a given distance of any location in the country for under a certain price? If so what is that distance?
In answer to your final part, yes I do. If the government wants to control house building then it should do its level best to make sure the number of home available matches the number of people that are seeking to work in that location. That means that if there is a need for employed people in a location then there really shouldn't be any restriction on the building of flats/houses. Just out of interest do think it is everyone's right to be able to buy a house within a given distance of any location in the country for under a certain price? If so what is that distance?
I would say a fair calculation of how affordable housing is what can you buy for 3.5 times the average national. If it's only 1 bed flats then the government has a problem.
The government are having their cake and eating it, by on the one hand restricting house building and on the other doing nothing to increase the supply of housing (that is affordable).
The only building that is going on currently in my area are executive style housing where the housebuilding can make a bigger profit. And those houses are selling for 400k+. If I were a house builder I would also be looking to maximize profits, they have no social responsibility to build affordable housing. Which is where the government and housing associations need to step up.
I would like to buy a 2 bed semi, but I am looking at 5 or even 6 x national average wage. And I would never pay that.
If you pick your nearest town and put in say a 20 or 30 mile radius and what you can reasonably afford as a purchase price, are you honestly saying there are zero results?
Also if you agree with my last part, what is that distance? 5 miles, 2, 10?
sugerbear said:
I would say a fair calculation of how affordable housing is what can you buy for 3.5 times the average national. If it's only 1 bed flats then the government has a problem.
That's simply not a fair conclusion to draw.Firstly, the average used is the mean, which will be skewed by very expensive properties.
Secondly, people generally buy these 'average' homes as a couple. So, by your metric you should use 7 times the average salary.
Thirdly, you are assuming people want to jump straight into owning the 'average' house, this is usually not the case, you start in a small flat or house and work your way up whilst paying off debt, its always been thus.
Fourthly, you are forgetting the passing of property and associated wealth through generations.
The dailymail headline grabbing stats say one thing, the reality of the situation for most remains that if you are in full time employment and are prudent, it is possible to buy a home in the uk that the vast majority of the world would call luxurious.
What you cannot have is a mediocre income at 25 and buy a four bedroom detached house or two bed penthouse city centre flat, but then they are not mediocre first time properties, so why should you?
jdw1234 said:
gibbon said:
Mr Whippy said:
For most professionals of the graduate generation today, they'll be living in shoe-box new builds their entire lives at the current pricing levels.
Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
Until they inherit their parents house, then purchase another home pushing price once more. Increased wealth storage in property within families.Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
BTL won't be able to go up THAT far to support purchases either, since once again younger generations are not THAT wealthy in large enough numbers to BTL at crazy per month rentals for 'normal' family homes.
heppers75 said:
Mr Whippy said:
For most professionals of the graduate generation today, they'll be living in shoe-box new builds their entire lives at the current pricing levels.
Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
Is that really true though? Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
I think it is not unreasonable to expect even someone on an average kind of career path if both choose to work after say 10 years of work and a couple of house moves to be in a circa £200k property even if they are only sitting around the £45k a year combined earnings level.
This place is case in point, looks pretty nice to me http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... and that is not an isolated example by any means.
I do know that both roundabouts to the East and West of there are completely jammed at commuting time though, so commuting is a horrible experience whichever way you decide you want to travel for work.
But materially that does look good value for money. Maybe a swing/change starting to happen when people NEED to move, and are willing to take a hit?
Dave
heppers75 said:
Well plenty of people do it out of necessity, you do what is needed to make your way in life - there is no right to have a house on the doorstep of your job!
Just out of interest do think it is everyone's right to be able to buy a house within a given distance of any location in the country for under a certain price? If so what is that distance?
I don't believe you have a right to buy your home in any shape, no. I do believe that if you want to, it's not unreasonable to expect to buy at 4.5 your annual income and not have to drive 30-40 miles to do so. Shouldn't local salaries reflect house prices and vice versa?Just out of interest do think it is everyone's right to be able to buy a house within a given distance of any location in the country for under a certain price? If so what is that distance?
For info, I'm a commuter and in the SE, I already live 30 miles from work. to get within your £150k and still be an area that is relatively nice/safe and I'd want my family to live, I'd need to move another 60 or 70 miles north.
I don't believe anyone is entitiled to anything, but giving up two hours more a day on a commute, to me, is absolutely senseless. I wouldn't sacrifice time simply to say I own a home, there's much smarter ways of living.
ClaphamGT3 said:
Mr Whippy said:
okgo said:
I doubt there are many places up north where a teacher or nurse couldn't afford to buy a property. Where is it you live? Yarm?
"North" is quite generalised though.There are places like Hull and Grimsby which have some fantastic property prices. To the point where you could easily live with just one of a couple working and the other being a home maker. But the job market is probably a bit tougher.
But move over to Harrogate with Leeds and York nearby, and suddenly you need to be a GP or company director to afford that lifestyle, and even then it might be tough!
For most professionals of the graduate generation today, they'll be living in shoe-box new builds their entire lives at the current pricing levels.
Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
If house prices all halved tomorrow, and everyone only owned *one* as a home to live in, would prices really shoot back up to today's levels within a few years?
The way I see it, it's only speculation and easy credit that forced the values up so dramatically in the late 90's and early 00's.
Even today we have another chunk of people over the last 6 years that have borrowed more than they can reasonably afford if interest rates rise. Without that stimulus (which would ideally have been used to pay down bad debt, not get MORE of it), you could argue house prices would have dropped quite significantly against inflation... and that doesn't bode well for suggesting the primary forcing is finite land mass and growing population driven.
I'll agree it's a factor, but it's not a shocker right now is it?
Dave
Pork said:
heppers75 said:
Well plenty of people do it out of necessity, you do what is needed to make your way in life - there is no right to have a house on the doorstep of your job!
Just out of interest do think it is everyone's right to be able to buy a house within a given distance of any location in the country for under a certain price? If so what is that distance?
I don't believe you have a right to buy your home in any shape, no. I do believe that if you want to, it's not unreasonable to expect to buy at 4.5 your annual income and not have to drive 30-40 miles to do so. Shouldn't local salaries reflect house prices and vice versa?Just out of interest do think it is everyone's right to be able to buy a house within a given distance of any location in the country for under a certain price? If so what is that distance?
For info, I'm a commuter and in the SE, I already live 30 miles from work. to get within your £150k and still be an area that is relatively nice/safe and I'd want my family to live, I'd need to move another 60 or 70 miles north.
I don't believe anyone is entitiled to anything, but giving up two hours more a day on a commute, to me, is absolutely senseless. I wouldn't sacrifice time simply to say I own a home, there's much smarter ways of living.
I have done the same and commuted into central London from the Midlands (daily) for several years, getting that experience and doing those jobs meant I spent a fair time away from home but put me in a position after a fair number of years where I could be local and live in a far nicer than average house. We are looking to move in the New Year and there is a huge variance in price for similar properties depending on many factors one of those factors is the affluence of the area, school catchment etc etc.
As for commuting times, the average according to the TUC seems to be the best part of an hour anyway and has been for sometime.
http://www.tuc.org.uk/workplace-issues/work-life-b...
Pork said:
I don't believe you have a right to buy your home in any shape, no. I do believe that if you want to, it's not unreasonable to expect to buy at 4.5 your annual income and not have to drive 30-40 miles to do so. Shouldn't local salaries reflect house prices and vice versa?
For info, I'm a commuter and in the SE, I already live 30 miles from work. to get within your £150k and still be an area that is relatively nice/safe and I'd want my family to live, I'd need to move another 60 or 70 miles north.
I don't believe anyone is entitiled to anything, but giving up two hours more a day on a commute, to me, is absolutely senseless. I wouldn't sacrifice time simply to say I own a home, there's much smarter ways of living.
Which is what, out of curiosity?For info, I'm a commuter and in the SE, I already live 30 miles from work. to get within your £150k and still be an area that is relatively nice/safe and I'd want my family to live, I'd need to move another 60 or 70 miles north.
I don't believe anyone is entitiled to anything, but giving up two hours more a day on a commute, to me, is absolutely senseless. I wouldn't sacrifice time simply to say I own a home, there's much smarter ways of living.
Mr Whippy said:
heppers75 said:
Mr Whippy said:
For most professionals of the graduate generation today, they'll be living in shoe-box new builds their entire lives at the current pricing levels.
Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
Is that really true though? Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
I think it is not unreasonable to expect even someone on an average kind of career path if both choose to work after say 10 years of work and a couple of house moves to be in a circa £200k property even if they are only sitting around the £45k a year combined earnings level.
This place is case in point, looks pretty nice to me http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... and that is not an isolated example by any means.
I do know that both roundabouts to the East and West of there are completely jammed at commuting time though, so commuting is a horrible experience whichever way you decide you want to travel for work.
But materially that does look good value for money. Maybe a swing/change starting to happen when people NEED to move, and are willing to take a hit?
Dave
Where we are now we have done more of the same to but in a more period property and the next house we buy we are dubbing our forever house.
One thing that I have learned looking with my wife is that people are odd when it comes to house hunting, they tend to have some preconceived notion about where they look. It has taken a while to get Mrs H to understand that really we need to look at Jnr H's school and what is an acceptable time for her to get to that every morning and afternoon and then knowing our area work out in all directions where we can look. Doing that has thrown up some surprising options for us, one of which is borderline ideal and not somewhere either of us would have previously looked thinking it was "too far". Whilst it is a good 20+ miles from the school and my office the roads and the route are actually very good and make it a far better prospect that some places within 10 miles.
Mr Whippy said:
heppers75 said:
This place is case in point, looks pretty nice to me http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... and that is not an isolated example by any means.
I can't be sure but that does look oddly cheap for what it is... which leads me to ask why is it so cheap.heppers75 said:
It has taken a while to get Mrs H to understand that really we need to look at Jnr H's school and what is an acceptable time for her to get to that every morning and afternoon and then knowing our area work out in all directions where we can look. Doing that has thrown up some surprising options for us, one of which is borderline ideal and not somewhere either of us would have previously looked thinking it was "too far". Whilst it is a good 20+ miles from the school and my office the roads and the route are actually very good and make it a far better prospect that some places within 10 miles.
Obviously I don't know anything about you or your circumstances, but 20 miles to school strikes me as bonkers.Is Jnr H in a fee paying school? If not then you could be in some difficulty when he moves to senior school.
z4RRSchris99 said:
the yeilds are so low in central london its smarter to rent if you belive in a stagnant or falling market.
for my grand a week i could rent a £3m flat. i could never buy or finance one.
£3m property for 4k ish a month?for my grand a week i could rent a £3m flat. i could never buy or finance one.
Are you sure that's possible to rent? I am aware prime yields are poor, but surely not there. I rent out my circa £550k property (not what I paid for it I hasten to add, but a rough estimate) for £2k a month in central (zone 2) London. Am I doing well or others doing spectacularly badly.
heppers75 said:
Mr Whippy said:
heppers75 said:
Mr Whippy said:
For most professionals of the graduate generation today, they'll be living in shoe-box new builds their entire lives at the current pricing levels.
Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
Is that really true though? Their parents would have been in a nice 4 up/down by the time they reached 30 on similar career paths.
I think it is not unreasonable to expect even someone on an average kind of career path if both choose to work after say 10 years of work and a couple of house moves to be in a circa £200k property even if they are only sitting around the £45k a year combined earnings level.
This place is case in point, looks pretty nice to me http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... and that is not an isolated example by any means.
I do know that both roundabouts to the East and West of there are completely jammed at commuting time though, so commuting is a horrible experience whichever way you decide you want to travel for work.
But materially that does look good value for money. Maybe a swing/change starting to happen when people NEED to move, and are willing to take a hit?
Dave
Where we are now we have done more of the same to but in a more period property and the next house we buy we are dubbing our forever house.
One thing that I have learned looking with my wife is that people are odd when it comes to house hunting, they tend to have some preconceived notion about where they look. It has taken a while to get Mrs H to understand that really we need to look at Jnr H's school and what is an acceptable time for her to get to that every morning and afternoon and then knowing our area work out in all directions where we can look. Doing that has thrown up some surprising options for us, one of which is borderline ideal and not somewhere either of us would have previously looked thinking it was "too far". Whilst it is a good 20+ miles from the school and my office the roads and the route are actually very good and make it a far better prospect that some places within 10 miles.
After looking around a lot for our rental it became clear that only a visit in person on the floor can do any potential house justice. Just ignoring any home, even ones that look quite 'urban' (we prefer rural locations) is potentially missing out on some gems.
I currently have a few Rightmove searches that just outline areas based on rural location (so around city/town boundaries which is a bit of a faff), and also based on known trunk road route speeds.
You can then really quickly find the good houses... but I've increasingly looked at ones in nice built up areas. Ie, corner plot homes backing onto fields with no current development plans in the area (ie, new housing to the backs etc), and they could be really nice to own for our needs.
But it's also amazing how many homes are just weird. Weird shapes, weird property boundaries, weird layouts. Just so weird.
Our next home needs to be a keeper I think. Something a bit buggered that needs work so we can add some real value. Moving is so expensive it's just not worth it. Gone are the days where the moving costs are blurred away in the equity boost of your property during ownership.
It can very quickly work out cheaper to just rent these days unless you know you'll be staying put for a long time. Ie, current rental would probably be £1600 on a mortgage for us, but rental is half that. Stamp duty and fees would probably be a years rent alone, never mind other costs. You really need to buy and stay put for a decade or so for it to make any sense at all to buy in the golden triangle right now.
Throw on a tin foil hat that prices are gonna come down more and more, and also the added flexibility of renting/freedom, and it's a no brainer for us.
Sheepshanks said:
Mr Whippy said:
heppers75 said:
This place is case in point, looks pretty nice to me http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... and that is not an isolated example by any means.
I can't be sure but that does look oddly cheap for what it is... which leads me to ask why is it so cheap.Edited by Mr Whippy on Tuesday 2nd December 12:50
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