How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[turbobloke]

princeperch said:

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/feb/05/how...

a long but interesting article

It sure is interesting and thanks for the link, but the subtitle "How did the property market get so unfair?" is out of place; markets move and their movements will be seen in different lights by different people. Losers will think it's unfair. Oil above $100 per barrel could be seen as unfair to petrol/diesel buyers (yes the tax is worse) while a price below $50 could be seen as unfair to some oil company employees who either lost their jobs already or see them at risk.

The prominent unfairness sobbing was presumably needed to get published by The Guardian. Nice move by the author.

[okgo]

i just know we'll be looking back on somewhere currently grim in 20 years saying the same thing when a flat in Elephant sells for a mint.

[turbobloke]

okgo said:

i just know we'll be looking back on somewhere currently grim in 20 years saying the same thing when a flat in Elephant sells for a mint.

Not long ago - a few years back - I had work near there and couldn't get a taxi to stop, do they pick up punters these days?

[gibbon]

okgo said:

i just know we'll be looking back on somewhere currently grim in 20 years saying the same thing when a flat in Elephant sells for a mint.

Yup.

[cwis]

turbobloke said:

The prominent unfairness sobbing was presumably needed to get published by The Guardian. Nice move by the author.

Indeed - name checked Thatcher as the cause of the housing crisis but didn't mention that the bulk of the house price boom occurred 1997-2002...

Thatcher Box ticked, therefore published in Guardian.

[okgo]

turbobloke said:

Not long ago - a few years back - I had work near there and couldn't get a taxi to stop, do they pick up punters these days?

Crikey.

I think its a bit better.

Suppose if you can find period place down there you'll do well by default.

[z4RRSchris99]

okgo said:

i just know we'll be looking back on somewhere currently grim in 20 years saying the same thing when a flat in Elephant sells for a mint.

i can imagine it keeping track with inflation, but this assumption that we will see the same metoric rise we have over the last 20 in the next 20 is pretty wrong me thinks.

historically its tracked wages, last 5 years it hasnt. to me that means it will correct back to wages

[turbobloke]

z4RRSchris99 said:

okgo said:

i just know we'll be looking back on somewhere currently grim in 20 years saying the same thing when a flat in Elephant sells for a mint.

i can imagine it keeping track with inflation, but this assumption that we will see the same metoric rise we have over the last 20 in the next 20 is pretty wrong me thinks.

historically its tracked wages, last 5 years it hasnt. to me that means it will correct back to wages

Will that be the wages of two or three people, or over two generations?

[okgo]

z4RRSchris99 said:

i can imagine it keeping track with inflation, but this assumption that we will see the same metoric rise we have over the last 20 in the next 20 is pretty wrong me thinks.

historically its tracked wages, last 5 years it hasnt. to me that means it will correct back to wages

Yeh, I was just thinking that its probably undervalued as a place as its such a dump, being central etc...

[NomduJour]

There are flats getting towards £1m in Metro Central Heights (the Goldfinger buildings off the roundabout), it isn't particularly cheap.

[z4RRSchris99]

okgo said:

z4RRSchris99 said:

i can imagine it keeping track with inflation, but this assumption that we will see the same metoric rise we have over the last 20 in the next 20 is pretty wrong me thinks.

historically its tracked wages, last 5 years it hasnt. to me that means it will correct back to wages

Yeh, I was just thinking that its probably undervalued as a place as its such a dump, being central etc...

its just a big roundabout full of fking wannabe gangstas, not the nicest place to be. give it time well pump a load of new build towers in there and ethnic cleanse.

[jdw1234]

Price discovery by me...

Been for sale over 3 years and slowly decaying :-(

Originally on for over £2m.

It was at £1.75m when we moved into the area c.2 years ago.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Now under offer at £1.2m

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

[Jobbo]

Looking at the photos (no interior shots in the current ad, and it looks knackered) and the wording, it's a mortgagee sale now.

[jdw1234]

I assumed the vendors had died.

The online planning site has an application by "BacktoFront Interior Design" to make it look very nice.

Other issues i can see are future liabilities maintaining the access road and proximity to a dog kennel.

We would have probably had it at that price when we were looking :-(

[rah1888]

Jobbo said:

Looking at the photos (no interior shots in the current ad, and it looks knackered) and the wording, it's a mortgagee sale now.

Definitely. If I recall correctly, the need to report the exact amount of the offer received is a legal requirement with a repossession.

[Mr Whippy]

turbobloke said:

princeperch said:

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/feb/05/how...

a long but interesting article

It sure is interesting and thanks for the link, but the subtitle "How did the property market get so unfair?" is out of place; markets move and their movements will be seen in different lights by different people. Losers will think it's unfair. Oil above $100 per barrel could be seen as unfair to petrol/diesel buyers (yes the tax is worse) while a price below $50 could be seen as unfair to some oil company employees who either lost their jobs already or see them at risk.

The prominent unfairness sobbing was presumably needed to get published by The Guardian. Nice move by the author.

I generally agree... assuming the values of things are driven by fundamentals and are not distorted by banks and governments fannying around with things too much.

I know it's always been the case, but the last decade has seen some behaviour that is beyond what we'd have expected to be happening in 10 years time, 20 years ago.


But while governments and banks impact the values of things most people buy simply to put a roof over their heads, or get to/from work, then you could argue things are unfair and have a reasonable argument for doing so.

[turbobloke]

Mr Whippy said:

But while governments and banks impact the values of things most people buy simply to put a roof over their heads, or get to/from work, then you could argue things are unfair and have a reasonable argument for doing so.

ISWYM but it's all part of supply and demand anyway. Low mortgage interest rates, help to buy, demand goes up. Mortgage lending conditions tightened, demand goes down. In both cases the market moves and the intervention in question isn't something that buyers will think of as amazingly unprecedented or even unexpected, interest rates change and political interference has been around since whenever. At one time miras going was big news. The thing that colours viewpoints most is timing. If timing on entering the market (and possibly leaving it at some point) happens to be good by luck or judgement then it's all hunky dory, if timing happens to be bad for any reason then property life's an itch.

Onwards and sideways but probably upwards long-term.

[anonymous-user]

75% house price inflation in Cambridge from Nov 13 to Dec 14

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

[okgo]

Doesn't tell you too much in isolation, could have been a complete cesspit previously and refurbed?

[anonymous-user]

okgo said:

Doesn't tell you too much in isolation, could have been a complete cesspit previously and refurbed?

apart from the windows and doors?