How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

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Burwood

18,709 posts

247 months

Friday 20th February 2015
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valiant said:
Yes but pound to a penny it's aimed at foreign buyers who havn't a clue where Luton really is and believe all the sales blurb and take the brochure as gospel.

Plus the belief that anything in close proximity to London is a guaranteed winner.
this

Cheib

23,267 posts

176 months

Wednesday 8th April 2015
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z4RRSchris99 said:
AstonZagato said:
The seeds are being sown: tax on mansions, tax on empty property, increasing talk of non-dom taxes, huge oversupply of expensive flats that aren't really super-prime at all. Whether those seeds take root or not...
tax on mansion: increased stamp over £1m, talk of mansion tax
non dom taxes: coming in april 18-285 on capital gains
huge oversupply: already happened, march/May the completions start down in vauxhall, the amount of resales ive been offered by people who dont want to complete is unreal. If people dont complete, banks dont get paid back. simples.
Some insight for you from my recent experience. We currently live in a good area of London whilst not being "super prime" and are moving out because we have young kids and greeen fields and fresh air are more appealing. We nearly did the move out on 2010 and couldn't find anywhere to buy.

Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.

How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.

z4RRSchris

11,293 posts

180 months

Wednesday 8th April 2015
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what postcode? ticket size? new build?

Burwood

18,709 posts

247 months

Wednesday 8th April 2015
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Sounds like 2m plus,lived there some time, given looked to sell in 2010 so I'll stab at 2005 purchase. Your london cash buys a lot for 2 m out in haselmere, Godalming, Chiddingfold.

NicD

3,281 posts

258 months

Wednesday 8th April 2015
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Digga said:
The black swan event for London high-end domestic property (and New York for that matter) would be the need for the BRICS property owners to liquidate their assets. We all know many places have been bought not even for status and occasional use, but merely as safe havens for chunks of capital. The question is how many distressed sales might it take to cause a change and what spill-down would there be to lower levels of the property ladder.
Fast forward to Ed 'abolishing non dom' status.

Cheib

23,267 posts

176 months

Wednesday 8th April 2015
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z4RRSchris said:
what postcode? ticket size? new build?
Burwood said:
Sounds like 2m plus,lived there some time, given looked to sell in 2010 so I'll stab at 2005 purchase. Your london cash buys a lot for 2 m out in haselmere, Godalming, Chiddingfold.
NW London....lived here for 15 years and in the area longer. Period property....there's very little new build in this part of the world. Won't be moving South of The Thames and not that far out either. Bucks/Herts is most likely.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

199 months

Wednesday 8th April 2015
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Cheib said:
Some insight for you from my recent experience. We currently live in a good area of London whilst not being "super prime" and are moving out because we have young kids and greeen fields and fresh air are more appealing. We nearly did the move out on 2010 and couldn't find anywhere to buy.

Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.

How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
No idea of the pace of sales in London but in Berkshire and specifically my location properties are flying some within a day others barely a week. Hardly any stock either - how long that will continue who knows. Houses certainly not worth it but the market is driving them up.

mikees

2,747 posts

173 months

Wednesday 8th April 2015
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Sold mine at asking in 3 days near Maidenhead.

Moving above M40 where things are a bit slower.

Mike

z4RRSchris

11,293 posts

180 months

Wednesday 8th April 2015
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pcl was off to a slow start but has picked up last two / three weeks. I did a £5m + deal today to an overseas buyer so there are still buyers about

loafer123

15,445 posts

216 months

Thursday 9th April 2015
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Cheib said:
Some insight for you from my recent experience. We currently live in a good area of London whilst not being "super prime" and are moving out because we have young kids and greeen fields and fresh air are more appealing. We nearly did the move out on 2010 and couldn't find anywhere to buy.

Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.

How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
I am pretty well connected in the property market, and I wouldn't hang about if I were you.


rover 623gsi

5,230 posts

162 months

Username888

505 posts

202 months

Thursday 9th April 2015
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Cheib said:
Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
Where I am in Surrey it's pretty crazy too, - my property has gone up by about 25% in the 12 months judging by what the two neighbours have just sold theirs for... which by the way, was asking price within 24 hours.

Friend of mine is in Waltham Abbey, and has had to deal with a bidding war on the first day of putting her flat on the market.

Username888

505 posts

202 months

Thursday 9th April 2015
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With the changes to pensions happening soon whereby people can withdraw their entire pension at 55, I am expecting property to go up once again, as more and more people look for somewhere to invest their money...



metrofour

98 posts

185 months

Thursday 9th April 2015
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Username888 said:
With the changes to pensions happening soon whereby people can withdraw their entire pension at 55, I am expecting property to go up once again, as more and more people look for somewhere to invest their money...
My EA has experienced a big increase in 1 bed flat sales due to this-and it's not happened yet-anything currently on sale circa 150k is flying out-zone 4,circa 6.5pc yield.Its actually negated any pre election lull in interest.

Cheib

23,267 posts

176 months

Thursday 9th April 2015
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loafer123 said:
Cheib said:
Some insight for you from my recent experience. We currently live in a good area of London whilst not being "super prime" and are moving out because we have young kids and greeen fields and fresh air are more appealing. We nearly did the move out on 2010 and couldn't find anywhere to buy.

Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.

How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
I am pretty well connected in the property market, and I wouldn't hang about if I were you.
Already found somewhere and will hopefully exchange in the two or three weeks. Had been on the market a while....needs a total refurb which puts quite a few people off.

Randy Winkman

16,147 posts

190 months

Thursday 23rd April 2015
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OMG! Think of the house prices!

scenario8

6,565 posts

180 months

Thursday 23rd April 2015
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Madeleine McCann looks different this week.

(Apologies to both families for my gentle mockery of the Express)

Magog

2,652 posts

190 months

Thursday 23rd April 2015
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Presumably everything hinges on the election... could we expect a collapse from the prime London property downwards if Labour/SNP are elected?

p1stonhead

25,549 posts

168 months

Friday 24th April 2015
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Magog said:
Presumably everything hinges on the election... could we expect a collapse from the prime London property downwards if Labour/SNP are elected?
The market is dead at the moment on the prime end from what I/funders have seen. If Labour get in, it will probably remain so for 6-12months in my opinion, then start up moving again.

Takes a while for new policies to be swallowed but it wont be that long. I dont think in any way that it will crash.

W124

1,541 posts

139 months

Friday 24th April 2015
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Whoever gets in will have far less incentive to keep the housing market afloat. Up to the election it's been a priority but if you know you have five years?. As I understand it, prices in central London have been cooling for a number of months. It will only take a small change in sentiment to tip it over. I make no value judgement about this - I just find it interesting that people assume prices will keep going up the way they have - and that the credit boom will go on forever.
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