How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
z4RRSchris99 said:
AstonZagato said:
The seeds are being sown: tax on mansions, tax on empty property, increasing talk of non-dom taxes, huge oversupply of expensive flats that aren't really super-prime at all. Whether those seeds take root or not...
tax on mansion: increased stamp over £1m, talk of mansion taxnon dom taxes: coming in april 18-285 on capital gains
huge oversupply: already happened, march/May the completions start down in vauxhall, the amount of resales ive been offered by people who dont want to complete is unreal. If people dont complete, banks dont get paid back. simples.
Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.
How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
Digga said:
The black swan event for London high-end domestic property (and New York for that matter) would be the need for the BRICS property owners to liquidate their assets. We all know many places have been bought not even for status and occasional use, but merely as safe havens for chunks of capital. The question is how many distressed sales might it take to cause a change and what spill-down would there be to lower levels of the property ladder.
Fast forward to Ed 'abolishing non dom' status.z4RRSchris said:
what postcode? ticket size? new build?
Burwood said:
Sounds like 2m plus,lived there some time, given looked to sell in 2010 so I'll stab at 2005 purchase. Your london cash buys a lot for 2 m out in haselmere, Godalming, Chiddingfold.
NW London....lived here for 15 years and in the area longer. Period property....there's very little new build in this part of the world. Won't be moving South of The Thames and not that far out either. Bucks/Herts is most likely.Cheib said:
Some insight for you from my recent experience. We currently live in a good area of London whilst not being "super prime" and are moving out because we have young kids and greeen fields and fresh air are more appealing. We nearly did the move out on 2010 and couldn't find anywhere to buy.
Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.
How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
No idea of the pace of sales in London but in Berkshire and specifically my location properties are flying some within a day others barely a week. Hardly any stock either - how long that will continue who knows. Houses certainly not worth it but the market is driving them up. Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.
How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
Cheib said:
Some insight for you from my recent experience. We currently live in a good area of London whilst not being "super prime" and are moving out because we have young kids and greeen fields and fresh air are more appealing. We nearly did the move out on 2010 and couldn't find anywhere to buy.
Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.
How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
I am pretty well connected in the property market, and I wouldn't hang about if I were you.Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.
How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
Cheib said:
Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
Where I am in Surrey it's pretty crazy too, - my property has gone up by about 25% in the 12 months judging by what the two neighbours have just sold theirs for... which by the way, was asking price within 24 hours.Friend of mine is in Waltham Abbey, and has had to deal with a bidding war on the first day of putting her flat on the market.
Username888 said:
With the changes to pensions happening soon whereby people can withdraw their entire pension at 55, I am expecting property to go up once again, as more and more people look for somewhere to invest their money...
My EA has experienced a big increase in 1 bed flat sales due to this-and it's not happened yet-anything currently on sale circa 150k is flying out-zone 4,circa 6.5pc yield.Its actually negated any pre election lull in interest.loafer123 said:
Cheib said:
Some insight for you from my recent experience. We currently live in a good area of London whilst not being "super prime" and are moving out because we have young kids and greeen fields and fresh air are more appealing. We nearly did the move out on 2010 and couldn't find anywhere to buy.
Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.
How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
I am pretty well connected in the property market, and I wouldn't hang about if I were you.Current home whilst being a flat falls into Mansion Tax territory and requires a massive stamp duty cheque.So I was concerned about putting it up for sale pre General Election. I was fully expecting for any sale to take ages and even possibly having to rent when we move out this summer.
How wrong I was. In 2010 when we tried moving potential buyers would pick up on things like the fact our third bedroom is small or that we didn't have an "eat in" kitchen. Fast forward to 2015, we have had 20 viewings multiple offers and attempted gazumpings. Buyers are not from the BRICS but from a wide variety of professions, downsizers and people that have inherited money. Decent London property is in rude health. Stunned if I am honest. Outside London in the home counties is very different...from the area we are moving to there seems to be plenty of property on the market with sales taking a while.
Magog said:
Presumably everything hinges on the election... could we expect a collapse from the prime London property downwards if Labour/SNP are elected?
The market is dead at the moment on the prime end from what I/funders have seen. If Labour get in, it will probably remain so for 6-12months in my opinion, then start up moving again. Takes a while for new policies to be swallowed but it wont be that long. I dont think in any way that it will crash.
Whoever gets in will have far less incentive to keep the housing market afloat. Up to the election it's been a priority but if you know you have five years?. As I understand it, prices in central London have been cooling for a number of months. It will only take a small change in sentiment to tip it over. I make no value judgement about this - I just find it interesting that people assume prices will keep going up the way they have - and that the credit boom will go on forever.
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