How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[z4RRSchris]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

of course! but they most likely underwrote it in the first place.

Edited by z4RRSchris on Wednesday 29th April 18:45

[Mr Whippy]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Smells a bit like USA sub-prime in 2006/7.

Gonna be a lot of nudity when the tide changes in London!

[Justayellowbadge]

I've spent 6 months or so convinced peak had hit and it was down from here.

I was wrong.

Election Schmelection. It's going to continue.

[Mr Whippy]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Given how many people have said their big property investment director/banker/friends have said they see rises ahead and great opportunity, you could argue the contrarian view makes sense about now, assuming reports are correct.

Stuff can only keep going up until it's not, after all.

[z4RRSchris]

Justayellowbadge said:

I've spent 6 months or so convinced peak had hit and it was down from here.

I was wrong.

Election Schmelection. It's going to continue.

depends where you own, the first hit will be to the sub PCL new build,

your not in that, think your in SW no?

3 years ago 700psf now 1200psf..... think that's sustainable?

[Justayellowbadge]

z4RRSchris said:

think that's sustainable?

I'm coming round to thinking enough others do to make it realistic.

Our exposure to SWL is Chiswick, Brook Green, Hammersmith, Ealing, Shepherds Bush and Wimbers and I'm not getting the feeling of flight I expected.

[robinessex]

Is this the gamblimg forum under another name ?

[98elise]

Justayellowbadge said:

I've spent 6 months or so convinced peak had hit and it was down from here.

I was wrong.

Election Schmelection. It's going to continue.

I predicted the last crash......about 3 years before it actually happened

I knew it was going to happen (all the hallmarks of the previous one) but I couldn't believe how high prices and how long it went on for, before it happened.

[toohangry]

98elise said:

I knew it was going to happen (all the hallmarks of the previous one)

What hallmarks?

[z4RRSchris]

my bet is still end of 16.

[DoubleSix]

98elise said:

I predicted the last crash......about 3 years before it actually happened

A broken clock.. etc etc

[walm]

robinessex said:

Is this the gamblimg forum under another name ?

When prices go down it was gambling.
When they go up it's investing!

[Mr Whippy]

Justayellowbadge said:

I'm coming round to thinking enough others do to make it realistic.

Which is exactly why it crashes, since roi only become sustainable on the idea it'll keep going up.

One crack in confidence and pop, unwind time!

It becomes a game of musical chairs... The music will stop, but when?

[Mr Whippy]

Justayellowbadge said:

I'm coming round to thinking enough others do to make it realistic.

Which is exactly why it crashes, since roi only become sustainable on the idea it'll keep going up.

One crack in confidence and pop, unwind time!

It becomes a game of musical chairs... The music will stop, but when?

[jonah35]

Mr Whippy said:

Justayellowbadge said:

I'm coming round to thinking enough others do to make it realistic.

Which is exactly why it crashes, since roi only become sustainable on the idea it'll keep going up.

One crack in confidence and pop, unwind time!

It becomes a game of musical chairs... The music will stop, but when?

When has the game ever stopped in London? Ever?!

[98elise]

DoubleSix said:

98elise said:

I predicted the last crash......about 3 years before it actually happened

A broken clock.. etc etc

It wasn't meant to sound clever, i meant I was saying it was going to crash soon....and it didn't....then soon.....and it didn't etc etc. it just kept going up and up.

[98elise]

toohangry said:

98elise said:

I knew it was going to happen (all the hallmarks of the previous one)

What hallmarks?

I was a home owner through the previous one, and I remember massive rises and ever more stupid ways of financing a home (100% mortgages etc). FTB's were getting priced out of the market as well. A mate and his wife both had 2 jobs just to afford a basic home, yet they could get a mortgage. My house went from 40k to 65k (when it went on the market) to selling a few years later for 42k.

It felt exactly the same just before the recent crash.

Edited by 98elise on Thursday 30th April 21:41

[Ari]

Mr Whippy said:

Which is exactly why it crashes, since roi only become sustainable on the idea it'll keep going up.

One crack in confidence and pop, unwind time!

It becomes a game of musical chairs... The music will stop, but when?

We've had that though, and more than just a crack. Northern Rock, Lehmans, recession, doom, gloom, disaster and still (after a wobble) the prices continue to climb.

People seem convinced that the government 'won't let prices fall'. And so far they've been dead right!

[Pork]

Ari said:

We've had that though, and more than just a crack. Northern Rock, Lehmans, recession, doom, gloom, disaster and still (after a wobble) the prices continue to climb.

People seem convinced that the government 'won't let prices fall'. And so far they've been dead right!

This is where I think we are. They did it in 2007/8 and can't really get away from interfering now. I may be wrong but I've though for the last 10 years or so that things are overpriced.....but up, up, up is the only way prices have gone. People are now getting giddy again and paying silly money for seemingly almost anything!

[W124]

I still reckon that whoever gets in will have less incentive to keep the thing afloat. And anyway, all the easy levers have been pulled.