How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Oh I generally agree.But it's going to be a horrible world in which we live.
There are no more 'partners' to add into buying a house to allow prices to rise more, or to ease the financial strain.
Families are not having kids, so no kids to help pay rent in later life either. Those who do have kids will probably enjoy them well into their 30s if they're aged 10 or so today.
Interest rates can't go down more.
If we really won't see salary rises, and prices of homes are pushed further but not allowed to ever move down again, then the result will be a slow controlled move back to the 'old days' of wealthy landowners and slaves.
If that really is the case then I'm still not too concerned as my family owns loads of property and farming land, and prime green field development land.
BUT, despite me probably being 'ok', the country (west?) will still be s
t if that is where it's heading.I'd personally prefer property to be abundant and cheap and of exceedingly high quality, since it'd free people to spend money on useful things that may benefit more of the economy, than simply feeding wealth into banks via interest and into speculators protected by the state (the public themselves)
But hey, mans is man's wolf. If people are willing to let greed and ignorance and "I'm ok" attitudes ruin the world for their kids, then fine. But they'd better not whinge later
okgo said:
turbobloke said:
That isn't intended to convey disbelief.
My point, in a smiley for the sake of brevity, was that the market price is what it is. London has seen large property price increases and some parts of London are still on the up while others are slowing down, but the thought of forking out nearly half a mil for a shoebox almost certainly in need of development - if it's truly the bottom end of that particular market - in what was described as a crappy area, comes with a degree of masochism that carries, to some including me, a degree of humour. Somewhat like reading about Max Mosley at his prossie bdsm session, getting spanked can be voluntary for the participant and a point of humour for onlookers.
ETA and that's not to say that participation won't make the participant rich. House prices on the up in London for one thing and selling videos on the other
but at the time it's still 
Edited by turbobloke on Tuesday 15th September 16:21
turbobloke said:
Not with you on that one, what was it intended to convey?
My point, in a smiley for the sake of brevity, was that the market price is what it is. London has seen large property price increases and some parts of London are still on the up while others are slowing down, but the thought of forking out nearly half a mil for a shoebox almost certainly in need of development - if it's truly the bottom end of that particular market - in what was described as a crappy area, comes with a degree of masochism that carries, to some including me, a degree of humour. Somewhat like reading about Max Mosley at his prossie bdsm session, getting spanked can be voluntary for the participant and a point of humour for onlookers.
ETA and that's not to say that participation won't make the participant rich. House prices on the up in London for one thing and selling videos on the other but at the time it's still
Yes, it was at what you've taken a lot of words to describe. Stuff costs more in London, we always seem to go back over this when anything cheap up north appears, or when anything expensive down south appears.My point, in a smiley for the sake of brevity, was that the market price is what it is. London has seen large property price increases and some parts of London are still on the up while others are slowing down, but the thought of forking out nearly half a mil for a shoebox almost certainly in need of development - if it's truly the bottom end of that particular market - in what was described as a crappy area, comes with a degree of masochism that carries, to some including me, a degree of humour. Somewhat like reading about Max Mosley at his prossie bdsm session, getting spanked can be voluntary for the participant and a point of humour for onlookers.
ETA and that's not to say that participation won't make the participant rich. House prices on the up in London for one thing and selling videos on the other
but at the time it's still Edited by turbobloke on Tuesday 15th September 16:21
okgo said:
turbobloke said:
Not with you on that one, what was it intended to convey?
My point, in a smiley for the sake of brevity, was that the market price is what it is. London has seen large property price increases and some parts of London are still on the up while others are slowing down, but the thought of forking out nearly half a mil for a shoebox almost certainly in need of development - if it's truly the bottom end of that particular market - in what was described as a crappy area, comes with a degree of masochism that carries, to some including me, a degree of humour. Somewhat like reading about Max Mosley at his prossie bdsm session, getting spanked can be voluntary for the participant and a point of humour for onlookers.
ETA and that's not to say that participation won't make the participant rich. House prices on the up in London for one thing and selling videos on the other but at the time it's still
Yes, it was at what you've taken a lot of words to describe. Stuff costs more in London, we always seem to go back over this when anything cheap up north appears, or when anything expensive down south appears.My point, in a smiley for the sake of brevity, was that the market price is what it is. London has seen large property price increases and some parts of London are still on the up while others are slowing down, but the thought of forking out nearly half a mil for a shoebox almost certainly in need of development - if it's truly the bottom end of that particular market - in what was described as a crappy area, comes with a degree of masochism that carries, to some including me, a degree of humour. Somewhat like reading about Max Mosley at his prossie bdsm session, getting spanked can be voluntary for the participant and a point of humour for onlookers.
ETA and that's not to say that participation won't make the participant rich. House prices on the up in London for one thing and selling videos on the other
but at the time it's still Even after working in London and living near London for 4 years and being a confirmed market realist I'm still allowed a humorous reaction to the thought of ploughing so much/little money (take your pick) into so little property, no matter how much it may be worth in 5 years.
I was once allowed a humorous reaction earlier in the thread at the thought of ploughing not far off that amount of money into a parking space, but now that permission has been withdrawn I'll try to be more careful in future, no promises though.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
There are tens of things the government has in its armoury yet to prop up house prices, don't be fooled. The government will not let prices halve.They could introduce tax relief on mortgages like they had years ago, negative interest rates, they could allow pensions to invest in residential property, they could allow mortgages to be passed down generations, they could further restrict planning, they could think outside the box.
I think you are naive if you think they will let property crash - there is so much more they can do to prop up prices.
OpulentBob said:
There are some right dreamers and walts on this thread. People who, I suspect, haven't bought or tried to buy a house since the mortgage review of 2014.
I have. It was no more taxing than previously albeit the meeting was a bit longer. I don't have any debts or commitments other than my mortgage though.
Those up to their eyeballs before will be the ones who may now not get through but for any reasonably sensible person not insanely stretching themselves, it's the same as it was before.
p1stonhead said:
OpulentBob said:
There are some right dreamers and walts on this thread. People who, I suspect, haven't bought or tried to buy a house since the mortgage review of 2014.
I have. It was no more taxing than previously albeit the meeting was a bit longer. I don't have any debts or commitments other than my mortgage though.
Those up to their eyeballs before will be the ones who may now not get through but for any reasonably sensible person not insanely stretching themselves, it's the same as it was before.
The people dreaming about 2M mortgages as mentioned above are laughable. How many people in the country does that apply to? It appears there's twice that many on PH.
The willy waving is laughable.
OpulentBob said:
Exactly. Normal people, normal salaries, not stretching themselves. Nice and sensible as we would (mostly) agree with.
The people dreaming about 2M mortgages as mentioned above are laughable. How many people in the country does that apply to? It appears there's twice that many on PH.
The willy waving is laughable.
Surely the aim is for as small a mortgage as possible, not as big as possible. Who wants to be constrained in their life and career/job choices by the millstone of a vast monthly payment to service? Madness!The people dreaming about 2M mortgages as mentioned above are laughable. How many people in the country does that apply to? It appears there's twice that many on PH.
The willy waving is laughable.
ewenm said:
OpulentBob said:
Exactly. Normal people, normal salaries, not stretching themselves. Nice and sensible as we would (mostly) agree with.
The people dreaming about 2M mortgages as mentioned above are laughable. How many people in the country does that apply to? It appears there's twice that many on PH.
The willy waving is laughable.
Surely the aim is for as small a mortgage as possible, not as big as possible. Who wants to be constrained in their life and career/job choices by the millstone of a vast monthly payment to service? Madness!The people dreaming about 2M mortgages as mentioned above are laughable. How many people in the country does that apply to? It appears there's twice that many on PH.
The willy waving is laughable.
ClaphamGT3 said:
Different people will have different priorities. Provided that they are confident that they can service the debt, what right has anyone to question whether or not they are doing the 'right' thing?
Internet, forum, public. I'd expect any opinion I post on PH to be questioned and usually ridiculed. For me, it comes down to "sufficiency" - once my family's needs are sufficiently met, then our aim stops being continual progression and starts to be about experience and enjoyment. I guess the same applies to those who continue to chase bigger houses etc - their "sufficient" point may be much further away than mine.
p1stonhead said:
OpulentBob said:
There are some right dreamers and walts on this thread. People who, I suspect, haven't bought or tried to buy a house since the mortgage review of 2014.
I have. It was no more taxing than previously albeit the meeting was a bit longer. I don't have any debts or commitments other than my mortgage though.
Those up to their eyeballs before will be the ones who may now not get through but for any reasonably sensible person not insanely stretching themselves, it's the same as it was before.
ewenm said:
Surely the aim is for as small a mortgage as possible, not as big as possible. Who wants to be constrained in their life and career/job choices by the millstone of a vast monthly payment to service? Madness!
If you believe in permanent house price inflation then the more leverage the better.£2m of equity in a £2m house going up 5% per annum is £100k return each year.
£2m of equity in a £4m house going up 5% per annum is £200k less £25k on the mortgage, so way better.
Plus you get to live in a house worth twice as much.
No brainer. [/PH Director]
ewenm said:
Internet, forum, public. I'd expect any opinion I post on PH to be questioned and usually ridiculed.
For me, it comes down to "sufficiency" - once my family's needs are sufficiently met, then our aim stops being continual progression and starts to be about experience and enjoyment. I guess the same applies to those who continue to chase bigger houses etc - their "sufficient" point may be much further away than mine.
Do you think sometimes that this is linked? I.e. running slightly larger debt levels to live closer to work to spend more time with your family, relieve stress etc? Can you not see a situation where one could derive 'experience and enjoyment' from the type, quality, and location of ones home?For me, it comes down to "sufficiency" - once my family's needs are sufficiently met, then our aim stops being continual progression and starts to be about experience and enjoyment. I guess the same applies to those who continue to chase bigger houses etc - their "sufficient" point may be much further away than mine.
I would postulate that it is all one and the same, of course its all a balance, but quality of life is often intrinsically linked to how and where one lives, which in turn is often related to debt levels.
gibbon said:
ewenm said:
Internet, forum, public. I'd expect any opinion I post on PH to be questioned and usually ridiculed.
For me, it comes down to "sufficiency" - once my family's needs are sufficiently met, then our aim stops being continual progression and starts to be about experience and enjoyment. I guess the same applies to those who continue to chase bigger houses etc - their "sufficient" point may be much further away than mine.
Do you think sometimes that this is linked? I.e. running slightly larger debt levels to live closer to work to spend more time with your family, relieve stress etc? Can you not see a situation where one could derive 'experience and enjoyment' from the type, quality, and location of ones home?For me, it comes down to "sufficiency" - once my family's needs are sufficiently met, then our aim stops being continual progression and starts to be about experience and enjoyment. I guess the same applies to those who continue to chase bigger houses etc - their "sufficient" point may be much further away than mine.
I would postulate that it is all one and the same, of course its all a balance, but quality of life is often intrinsically linked to how and where one lives, which in turn is often related to debt levels.
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