How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
gibbon said:
ewenm said:
Internet, forum, public. I'd expect any opinion I post on PH to be questioned and usually ridiculed.
For me, it comes down to "sufficiency" - once my family's needs are sufficiently met, then our aim stops being continual progression and starts to be about experience and enjoyment. I guess the same applies to those who continue to chase bigger houses etc - their "sufficient" point may be much further away than mine.
Do you think sometimes that this is linked? I.e. running slightly larger debt levels to live closer to work to spend more time with your family, relieve stress etc? Can you not see a situation where one could derive 'experience and enjoyment' from the type, quality, and location of ones home?For me, it comes down to "sufficiency" - once my family's needs are sufficiently met, then our aim stops being continual progression and starts to be about experience and enjoyment. I guess the same applies to those who continue to chase bigger houses etc - their "sufficient" point may be much further away than mine.
I would postulate that it is all one and the same, of course its all a balance, but quality of life is often intrinsically linked to how and where one lives, which in turn is often related to debt levels.
That's not to say it's unhealthy at times to have a quiet chuckle at the absurdity of reality or the reality of absurdity depending on perspective. That isn't in any way a personal act criticising any individual or their choices/choice.
I wouldn't criticise somebody for buying a 250 GTO for tens of £millions, it's their freedom of choice within available choices. It would still make me smile though, in a good way.
ewenm said:
Which is all linked to the measure of sufficiency - this is definitely subjective and individual. However, I still see lots of people who seem to continually want "more". If you're never satisfied with what you've got, if it's never sufficient, can you ever be contented?
A fair point, and i agree.A slight tangent, but i would say for me contentment is having the knowledge and ability to make choices on how i live and what i do. The difficulty is if you never get the chance to experience certain things, be it material or experience based, you will always be left wanting to experience such things. Contentment i think is understanding the choices available and choosing what is important to you.
A lack of choice in most aspects of life, is miserable.
turbobloke said:
Yes it's a matter of personal choice within a context of having various degrees of choice to exercise.
That's not to say it's unhealthy at times to have a quiet chuckle at the absurdity of reality or the reality of absurdity depending on perspective. That isn't in any way a personal act criticising any individual or their choices/choice.
I wouldn't criticise somebody for buying a 250 GTO for tens of £millions, it's their freedom of choice within available choices. It would still make me smile though, in a good way.
See above. I think its all down to having choices.That's not to say it's unhealthy at times to have a quiet chuckle at the absurdity of reality or the reality of absurdity depending on perspective. That isn't in any way a personal act criticising any individual or their choices/choice.
I wouldn't criticise somebody for buying a 250 GTO for tens of £millions, it's their freedom of choice within available choices. It would still make me smile though, in a good way.
gibbon said:
ewenm said:
Which is all linked to the measure of sufficiency - this is definitely subjective and individual. However, I still see lots of people who seem to continually want "more". If you're never satisfied with what you've got, if it's never sufficient, can you ever be contented?
A fair point, and i agree.A slight tangent, but i would say for me contentment is having the knowledge and ability to make choices on how i live and what i do. The difficulty is if you never get the chance to experience certain things, be it material or experience based, you will always be left wanting to experience such things. Contentment i think is understanding the choices available and choosing what is important to you.
A lack of choice in most aspects of life, is miserable.
I on the other hand have more modest goals and when met, i'm oooot.
To get back OT, how far will prices fall then?! I was told to await the crash back in 2000. We always get in "real terms property has dropped" yet here I am in a property that sold for 3 times more (in 2012) than it did in 2000 (more annoying is the fact I could & SHOULD have purchased the bloody thing back in 2000 but I didn't want to take on the debt of £106k! FOOL).
Dave_ST220 said:
To get back OT, how far will prices fall then?! I was told to await the crash back in 2000. We always get in "real terms property has dropped" yet here I am in a property that sold for 3 times more (in 2012) than it did in 2000 (more annoying is the fact I could & SHOULD have purchased the bloody thing back in 2000 but I didn't want to take on the debt of £106k! FOOL).
well dave, at least you have the balls to admit it. I sold a property in 2007 literally weeks before the crash, purchased in 2001 (made a fkg killing). I also sold a property in 2010, purchased in 2006 and lost a reasonable amount (in another country) only to find it now worth double. You cant always pick them. The people that say they are always right are full of s
t. My brother has been buying property for 20 years all through the boom and bust, a very clever guy and has make a fortune. He could have lost his shirt. At the time he did some crazy stuff but the key was he started buying (and still is) when he was a very highly paid professonal so he always had the security to shore things up if it went tits up.turbobloke said:
Dave_ST220 said:
To get back OT, how far will prices fall then?!
Good point, me might as well get back to discussing precisely how far house prices will fall upwards.Maybe some Corbynomics would bring about the much vaunted but as yet unseen crash.
Burwood said:
Dave_ST220 said:
To get back OT, how far will prices fall then?! I was told to await the crash back in 2000. We always get in "real terms property has dropped" yet here I am in a property that sold for 3 times more (in 2012) than it did in 2000 (more annoying is the fact I could & SHOULD have purchased the bloody thing back in 2000 but I didn't want to take on the debt of £106k! FOOL).
well dave, at least you have the balls to admit it. I sold a property in 2007 literally weeks before the crash, purchased in 2001 (made a fkg killing). I also sold a property in 2010, purchased in 2006 and lost a reasonable amount (in another country) only to find it now worth double. You cant always pick them. The people that say they are always right are full of st. My brother has been buying property for 20 years all through the boom and bust, a very clever guy and has make a fortune. He could have lost his shirt. At the time he did some crazy stuff but the key was he started buying (and still is) when he was a very highly paid professonal so he always had the security to shore things up if it went tits up.t had just hit the fan!). The fact is I'm now in the house I could have purchased in 2000 & would have been mortgage free (years ago too!! ARRRGH!!). Oh well. At least going the route I did made me extend where I am now by nearly double (doubt I would have bothered if I'd got it back on 2000 as I wouldn't know any better) & on the plus side the building work has added about £80k equity (actually 180K but build costs were about £100K) & I now have the plus points of a new build with the plus points of an old established development 
St John Smythe said:
walm said:
Ari - your reply to Mr Bond only applies if houses all rise at the same rate.
If he were living in London and looking to move out then he will be quids in, for example.
Thanks Tibbets.If he were living in London and looking to move out then he will be quids in, for example.
Edited to add - plus Ari clearly only see's a house as an investment. I primarily see it as a home for my family. Increase in value comes second to that.
Edited by St John Smythe on Monday 14th September 18:24
My house keeps the rain off exactly the same whether it's worth £1 or £1M tomorrow - I couldn't care less. I'm not claiming to be better off just because my house has gone up another £100K, because I'm not (unless I sell it and live in a tent - or somehow transport the house to London and sell it there).
JagLover said:
I think the last 7 years have shown that a key difference between this and other markets is that the government will not let prices fall below a certain level.
Pretty obvious that it's one of the major concerns. Governments are not omnipotent though - if/when something does change, the fall out will be worse,Justayellowbadge said:
I browse every now and then.
It is an astonishingly unpleasant place.
The vitriol is one thing - all btl are scum and the look forward to seeing their children starving in gutters, but the way the place rounds on anyone not of the hive mind is incredible. If anyone says anything remotely positive they are immediately called out as a troll, rentier scum or, worst of all, apparently, an estate agent.
The utter certainty displayed there is borderline mental illness.
Whilst true, there are more than a few similarly evangelically convinced that house prices are a one way bet on here ready to loudly shout down anyone who dares question The Rhetoric. It is an astonishingly unpleasant place.
The vitriol is one thing - all btl are scum and the look forward to seeing their children starving in gutters, but the way the place rounds on anyone not of the hive mind is incredible. If anyone says anything remotely positive they are immediately called out as a troll, rentier scum or, worst of all, apparently, an estate agent.
The utter certainty displayed there is borderline mental illness.
A few of us are old enough to remember the early nineties crash having been fed the 'not building any more land/supply and demand/prices only go up' rhetoric throughout the eighties property boom. Interestingly, classic car values went absolutely mad just before it all fell off a cliff too...
Just like then, all the evangelists are ignoring the huge elephant in the room which is that property purchasing ultimately has to be underpinned by affordability. The real reason that prices are insane is simply that the great British public (through all sorts of clever schemes and underpinned by virtually zero percent borrowing) has simply had a load more (borrowed) money stuffed in their collective pockets.
Simply put, arrange the same people and the same properties but double the amount they can borrow and they don't all end up with double the size of house, they end up with the same houses at double the price.
We're now into very uncharted waters. There have been plenty of crashes before, but never has so much been done to artificially prop up values. Arguably so much was done that it kick started the next round of increases as people believe the Mighty Government can reach down and halt any property value slide. 'It's different this time they chant. It certainly is..!
The fact is that none of us actually know what's going to happen, no matter how much some scoff at others for not agreeing with their version of the future.
The property market is a juggernaut. Can the government keep it artificially inflated for ever? I don't know. And nor do you and nor do they...
Ari said:
St John Smythe said:
walm said:
Ari - your reply to Mr Bond only applies if houses all rise at the same rate.
If he were living in London and looking to move out then he will be quids in, for example.
Thanks Tibbets.If he were living in London and looking to move out then he will be quids in, for example.
Edited to add - plus Ari clearly only see's a house as an investment. I primarily see it as a home for my family. Increase in value comes second to that.
Edited by St John Smythe on Monday 14th September 18:24
My house keeps the rain off exactly the same whether it's worth £1 or £1M tomorrow - I couldn't care less. I'm not claiming to be better off just because my house has gone up another £100K, because I'm not (unless I sell it and live in a tent - or somehow transport the house to London and sell it there).
St John Smythe said:
No, I said that the increase in value has allowed us to use the equity to buy a bigger house. Never mentioned anything about getting richer.
Better off then, whatever. You're not, you're worse off (unless your last house was in fact in Mayfair).The point I'm making is that this blind faith that rampant property inflation is A Good Thing and will go on for ever is, I believe, naive at best.
Ari said:
Whilst true, there are more than a few similarly evangelically convinced that house prices are a one way bet on here ready to loudly shout down anyone who dares question The Rhetoric.
A few of us are old enough to remember the early nineties crash having been fed the 'not building any more land/supply and demand/prices only go up' rhetoric throughout the eighties property boom. Interestingly, classic car values went absolutely mad just before it all fell off a cliff too...
Just like then, all the evangelists are ignoring the huge elephant in the room which is that property purchasing ultimately has to be underpinned by affordability. The real reason that prices are insane is simply that the great British public (through all sorts of clever schemes and underpinned by virtually zero percent borrowing) has simply had a load more (borrowed) money stuffed in their collective pockets.
Simply put, arrange the same people and the same properties but double the amount they can borrow and they don't all end up with double the size of house, they end up with the same houses at double the price.
We're now into very uncharted waters. There have been plenty of crashes before, but never has so much been done to artificially prop up values. Arguably so much was done that it kick started the next round of increases as people believe the Mighty Government can reach down and halt any property value slide. 'It's different this time they chant. It certainly is..!
The fact is that none of us actually know what's going to happen, no matter how much some scoff at others for not agreeing with their version of the future.
The property market is a juggernaut. Can the government keep it artificially inflated for ever? I don't know. And nor do you and nor do they...
Well balanced view and mirrors my own. Who knows what will happen, but I certainly know that what I see is worrying.A few of us are old enough to remember the early nineties crash having been fed the 'not building any more land/supply and demand/prices only go up' rhetoric throughout the eighties property boom. Interestingly, classic car values went absolutely mad just before it all fell off a cliff too...
Just like then, all the evangelists are ignoring the huge elephant in the room which is that property purchasing ultimately has to be underpinned by affordability. The real reason that prices are insane is simply that the great British public (through all sorts of clever schemes and underpinned by virtually zero percent borrowing) has simply had a load more (borrowed) money stuffed in their collective pockets.
Simply put, arrange the same people and the same properties but double the amount they can borrow and they don't all end up with double the size of house, they end up with the same houses at double the price.
We're now into very uncharted waters. There have been plenty of crashes before, but never has so much been done to artificially prop up values. Arguably so much was done that it kick started the next round of increases as people believe the Mighty Government can reach down and halt any property value slide. 'It's different this time they chant. It certainly is..!
The fact is that none of us actually know what's going to happen, no matter how much some scoff at others for not agreeing with their version of the future.
The property market is a juggernaut. Can the government keep it artificially inflated for ever? I don't know. And nor do you and nor do they...
Ari said:
St John Smythe said:
No, I said that the increase in value has allowed us to use the equity to buy a bigger house. Never mentioned anything about getting richer.
Better off then, whatever. You're not, you're worse off (unless your last house was in fact in Mayfair).The point I'm making is that this blind faith that rampant property inflation is A Good Thing and will go on for ever is, I believe, naive at best.
V6Alfisti said:
Well balanced view and mirrors my own. Who knows what will happen, but I certainly know that what I see is worrying.
Thank you. Ultimately I have no dog in this race, I own my modest house outright and have no intention of moving so what it is worth really is absolutely irrelevant to me. But I find it fascinating, especially the evangelical stance taken on both sides. But like you, I do find it worrying - a very great deal feels like it doesn't add up right now and I think the future could still be very 'interesting'.
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