How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Mr Whippy said:
Houses being used for speculative investment is hurting the economy because people will spend excess wealth on their nice home for their family as a priority, and then not buy other things instead which actually fed the economy... ie, cars, white goods, etc.
How do you spend "excess wealth" on a nice family home without benefitting the economy? 
Kitchens, building work, TV's, furnishing etc etc.Mr Whippy said:
High property prices benefit no one except people who own more than one because they buy them for investments.
Or those who sell & downsize, or those that sell up in an expensive area & move to a cheaper one. I'd rather see lower house prices but that isn't going to happen any time soon.Mr Whippy said:
It's just conservative cronyism. IF the government let house prices crash, and then they protect the poor with 'homes' and let the speculators burn, then it'd be a sign the government care.
But for now they just want to make sure their wealthy mates stay that way at your and everyone elses expense.
But for now they just want to make sure their wealthy mates stay that way at your and everyone elses expense.
ClaphamGT3 said:
But for very different reasons. If the market shifts from a user model to an investor model, where the investor is looking for predictable long term revenue from an asset-backed investment and is prepared to move into the market at scale, then that could take a large proportion of housing out of the reach of owner occupiers
That'll be hilarious when all the tenants get old. Knowing that housing costs will have to be covered by the State, there'll be no incentive to save or bother with a pension. Sheepshanks said:
ClaphamGT3 said:
But for very different reasons. If the market shifts from a user model to an investor model, where the investor is looking for predictable long term revenue from an asset-backed investment and is prepared to move into the market at scale, then that could take a large proportion of housing out of the reach of owner occupiers
That'll be hilarious when all the tenants get old. Knowing that housing costs will have to be covered by the State, there'll be no incentive to save or bother with a pension. Sheepshanks said:
ClaphamGT3 said:
But for very different reasons. If the market shifts from a user model to an investor model, where the investor is looking for predictable long term revenue from an asset-backed investment and is prepared to move into the market at scale, then that could take a large proportion of housing out of the reach of owner occupiers
That'll be hilarious when all the tenants get old. Knowing that housing costs will have to be covered by the State, there'll be no incentive to save or bother with a pension. Dave_ST220 said:
Mr Whippy said:
Houses being used for speculative investment is hurting the economy because people will spend excess wealth on their nice home for their family as a priority, and then not buy other things instead which actually fed the economy... ie, cars, white goods, etc.
How do you spend "excess wealth" on a nice family home without benefitting the economy? Kitchens, building work, TV's, furnishing etc etc.Mr Whippy said:
High property prices benefit no one except people who own more than one because they buy them for investments.
Or those who sell & downsize, or those that sell up in an expensive area & move to a cheaper one. I'd rather see lower house prices but that isn't going to happen any time soon.Mr Whippy said:
It's just conservative cronyism. IF the government let house prices crash, and then they protect the poor with 'homes' and let the speculators burn, then it'd be a sign the government care.
But for now they just want to make sure their wealthy mates stay that way at your and everyone elses expense.
But for now they just want to make sure their wealthy mates stay that way at your and everyone elses expense.
Indeed, probably less to spend on kitchens, building work and TVs, given the state of most houses I see for sale. Fancy on the inside, rough as s
t on the outside.Moving from expensive to cheap may be beneficial if you play it right, but overall how many people play that one well? It's got to be a small minority that find the area they're moving to isn't following the general trend of house prices. Ie, has anywhere gone down significantly recently?
As for downgrading, great if you live in an area with high demand (south?), but oop North expensive houses don't move. Only people downgrading from new buyer/young family affordable to super cheap bungalows near the East coast seem to manage.
Around here half the £500,000+ houses don't sell, and usually end up 20% cheaper asking price before they finally move. Technically they're bargains though, given what s
tbox shoeboxes you get for £250,000 in towns... but obviously £1,000 > £2,000 mortgage is a big step for average earners.Conservative cronyism NOW, if they prop up a market that wants to correct.
Labour propped it up in 2008, and being socialists you'd half expect it... but to do it again under Conservatives would be hypocritcal and far worse.
If even Conservatives start robbing depositors of their hard earned savings to bail banks to prop up housing values, then Conservatives are just a more crony version of socialist labour!
Dave
Unsure on this propping up thing , i work with lots of people who have moved to the UK in the last 10 years ( with lots of cash ) they are purchasing lots of houses with family cash.. this must be added to the price increase. Don't remember this happening in the 90's , maybe it did.
Edited by superkartracer on Thursday 17th September 14:51
Transatlantic two-step.
http://news.sky.com/story/1554091/federal-reserve-...
"Britain’s businesses are urging the Bank of England to leave interest rates on hold 'well into 2016'"
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/10/bu...
http://news.sky.com/story/1554091/federal-reserve-...
"Britain’s businesses are urging the Bank of England to leave interest rates on hold 'well into 2016'"
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/10/bu...
gibbon said:
The beginning of a change could happen in just over an hour, to hike rates or not?
I dont think they will, we shall see shortly...
I don't think they ever will raise them.I dont think they will, we shall see shortly...
Since the start of it all in 2007 the strategy has, and continues to be, deflate away the debt.
At first we assumed this meant with inflation, but since we can't even get that, we just print money and make everything become worthless, including debt.
If this strategy will finally work is another matter... so far we just seem to have had asset bubbles forming everywhere rather than inflation driven through consumption.
To flip around now and go in the opposite direction seems unlikely.
Houses are going to go up in "price" but probably go down in actual value in the next 10 years. If we actually see hyper-inflation at any point, that'll 'reset' things nicely in any case.
"It's time to sell up your home OAPs told: Anger as financial watchdog tells elderly to downsize to tackle housing shortage"
Click
*Financial watchdog tells the elderly to downsize to tackle housing shortage
*'Ministers should tackle problem of OAPs living in homes too big for them'
*Financial Conduct Authority said Britain had real issue with last-time buyer
*But senior official's comments were described as 'insulting' and 'unhelpful'
Click
*Financial watchdog tells the elderly to downsize to tackle housing shortage
*'Ministers should tackle problem of OAPs living in homes too big for them'
*Financial Conduct Authority said Britain had real issue with last-time buyer
*But senior official's comments were described as 'insulting' and 'unhelpful'
turbobloke said:
"It's time to sell up your home OAPs told: Anger as financial watchdog tells elderly to downsize to tackle housing shortage"
Click
*Financial watchdog tells the elderly to downsize to tackle housing shortage
*'Ministers should tackle problem of OAPs living in homes too big for them'
*Financial Conduct Authority said Britain had real issue with last-time buyer
*But senior official's comments were described as 'insulting' and 'unhelpful'
And with that plank Jeremy Corbyn at the helm, which wouldn't surprise me given the cretinousness of most of the UK population, that is the first slipperly slope of government action that would lead to nationalised housing!Click
*Financial watchdog tells the elderly to downsize to tackle housing shortage
*'Ministers should tackle problem of OAPs living in homes too big for them'
*Financial Conduct Authority said Britain had real issue with last-time buyer
*But senior official's comments were described as 'insulting' and 'unhelpful'
Socialism eh.
The real solution to all this is to just scrap almost all the planning regs.
Leave just specifications on quality of housing that is allowed to be built. Ie, nice looking. Big. Long lasting. Big gardens. Lots of trees. Proper quality family homes for a lifetime.
Anything that no one wants and ends up empty and worthless, CPO for market value and then smash it down and make it green again.
Let free markets do the rest.
Bullett said:
And who will be buying them?
Every downsizer needs an upsizer and the olds are not going to give them away.
So assuming they do sell up, the olds then buy a smaller home (with cash) what should be the first home. Pushing the prices of those home up.
Some friends of ours, recently retired, just gave their lovey old stone barn conversion property to their daughter (married with a couple of small kids) and moved into a retirement apartment in town.Every downsizer needs an upsizer and the olds are not going to give them away.
So assuming they do sell up, the olds then buy a smaller home (with cash) what should be the first home. Pushing the prices of those home up.
Sorry, meant to include that they're retired from reasonable public sector jobs so they have certainty of income for the rest of their lives which makes making financial decisions easier. There aren't going to many people in that position in the future.
Edited by Sheepshanks on Saturday 19th September 11:58
Surprise (not), the economy isn't quite as healthy as purported.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england...
V6Alfisti said:
Surprise (not), the economy isn't quite as healthy as purported.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england...
'Haldane Out On A Limb' (The Scotsman).http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england...
Abolish cash to force voters to pay interest to banks for holding their money, that'll go down well. Time to go to the mattresses!
He's warning that volatility may recur and a shock may be around the corner (EZ?) what's new, there's still plenty of scope for mewing a couple of his'n'hers s-lines
Chatting to a friend last night and he mentioned they just sold their 2 bed house in Bracknell Berkshire for 297,500 after only buying it for 202k 3 years previously. Nice house but its on a huge new housing estate, no local shops, kitchen and lounge are tiny, and they had 3 people offering the asking price.
No wonder people in the SE are struggling to purchase FTB.
No wonder people in the SE are struggling to purchase FTB.
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