How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[FourWheelDrift]

Milton Keynes, the new London - http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

I think there's an extra 0, but then again...............

[Mr Whippy]

okgo said:

Define worth - isn't it what someone is willing to pay?

It is.

And for now, they're 'worth' more than they will be for a long time.


Unless, for the first time ever in the history of everything to do with humans and wealth, property prices stay at the very maximum of affordability of the property owning populus, and never deviate from that point, somehow avoiding being over-blown and crashing.

And no new properties are never made in significant enough volumes which increases supply and reduces demand.


I think there are oodles of situations in which property will no longer be an asset that enjoys a market position that allows it to find itself teetering at a maximal point ad infinitum.
War, revolution, huge natural disasters. We've been fairly lucky to have not many for the last 50 years and it's given the current generations a false sense of security I think.

Just look at people like Jeremy Corbyn. He could just socialise all housing. Bye bye 'wealth'

Or another large world war and subsequent rebuilding. Bye bye planning regs which keep supply low and demand high.

A pandemic wiping out 15% of the population. Bye bye supply demand.


And ALL those things have happened within Europe several times in the last 100 years, but not so many in the last 50 of them. We've had uncommonly 'good' times.

I'd be weary of having a perma-bull view on property 'worth'.

[NomduJour]

2-bed South London council hutch, £79,500 - oh, sorry - £795,000.

[Axionknight]

[FourWheelDrift]

"Margaret, pass me my widest of fish-eye lenses!"

[Justayellowbadge]

It is undoubtedly a house, in a town.

That doesn't make it a 'town house'.

Still, it is just off Northcote Rd, but the asking is ridiculously optimistic. And has been since May it seems.

Edited by Justayellowbadge on Tuesday 13th October 21:31

[Axionknight]

It makes me feel better about spending half of that on a four bedroom detached with a pretty big garage anyway, my missus badgered me into it and even that took some doing, with me being the miser that I am.

Spending is a lose term here, since we owe the bank a fortune.

[NomduJour]

£650-750k looks likely based on previous sales. As ridiculous as it is, it's a (grim) house for flat money.

£800k:

[VX Foxy]

scenario8 said:

I think Foxy was just holding a lamp for him and calling out wistfully into the Internet void.

[anarki]

I have no shame admitting I'm working class, I'm happy with my life but holy st what are the London wages like for people to be able, wait wait wait scrap that, to even want a 2 bed shoe box for three quarters of a million pounds!

Surely people aren't aspiring to live there that much? I've never seen the appeal or never particularly been keen on London if I'm honest. That's my opinion.

Our mortgage is a smidge over three times my wage alone, combine our income it becomes about 2.5 times our income. On a 17 year mortgage.

We have 3 bedrooms, it's semi detached, driveway, garden... Or we could spend £600,000 more for a lot lot less.

[AJLintern]

£800k for those kind of houses must surely be unsustainable - who in their right mind would pay that?! I wouldn't pay £200k for those!

[///ajd]

I'm new and have only gone back a few pages - what is the consensus, are we duea 90s style readjustment and negative equity at some stage?

I used to think so in the mid 2000s, but now not so sure due to demand/supply.

Those €1m boxes above can't be right though, can they?

[Dave_ST220]

z4RRSchris said:

that's because is prolongs the pain into the next administration

if house prices crashed 50% on your watch you ain't getting in again.

& that is what we've had since 1999. Sooner or later the music will stop & this thread can end Can't see it yet though....

[p1stonhead]

///ajd said:

I'm new and have only gone back a few pages - what is the consensus, are we due a 90s style readjustment and negative equity at some stage?

I dont think so (especially in London and the South East) simply due to sheer supply/demand imbalance. The rise in prices may slow but we dont build anywhere near enough new houses for anything to crash IMO. I have said before that if prices tanked, I know of several people (who already own) sitting on mountains of cash who would grab a few more for their portfolios if this happened and hence, prices would simply reflect this new demand and rise again.

///ajd said:

Those €1m boxes above can't be right though, can they?

They are ridiculous but demand dictates prices. Some may be stupid and drop but in the back of my mind they must be even a tiny part reasonable for an EA to even bother putting them up at that level?

[Mr Whippy]

p1stonhead said:

///ajd said:

I'm new and have only gone back a few pages - what is the consensus, are we due a 90s style readjustment and negative equity at some stage?

I dont think so (especially in London and the South East) simply due to sheer supply/demand imbalance. The rise in prices may slow but we dont build anywhere near enough new houses for anything to crash IMO. I have said before that if prices tanked, I know of several people (who already own) sitting on mountains of cash who would grab a few more for their portfolios if this happened and hence, prices would simply reflect this new demand and rise again.

///ajd said:

Those €1m boxes above can't be right though, can they?

They are ridiculous but demand dictates prices. Some may be stupid and drop but in the back of my mind they must be even a tiny part reasonable for an EA to even bother putting them up at that level?

So what happens when demand disappears?

Cheap credit and demand are making prices high, but both those variables can and might disappear.


It's going to get messy if anything goes wronger at this point.

[VX Foxy]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Why not sell with the extension at a higher price?

[tescorank]

VX Foxy said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Why not sell with the extension at a higher price?

Because the property is being sold by the leaseholder, you have to go to the freeholder to extend the lease and with so few years remaining the extension will be expensive, bearing in mind in 9 years the freeholder is going to have a nice unit for free.


http://www.flat-living.co.uk/advice/496-can-we-ext...

Edited by tescorank on Friday 16th October 08:58

[ClaphamGT3]

thelittleegg said:

VX Foxy said:

Why not sell with the extension at a higher price?

From another website, talking about a different flat but also on Eaton Square "Extending by 90 years is not an option for whoever buys the £600,000 apartment Savills is selling on Eaton Square, perhaps London’s most exclusive address. The original 20-year lease on the two-bedroom flat, which has access to private gardens and a tennis court, prevents the owner from negotiating a lengthy extension with the landlord, the Duke of Westminster’s Grosvenor Estate, and this lease expires in 2022."

I wonder if this property is the same.

Possible but unlikely. Grosvenor are moving Eaton Sq to a serviced accommodation model so are buying out/terminating leaseholders wherever they have a right to do so.

As an aside, £600k is still a good deal for a 20 year lease on anything in Eaton Sq - you wouldn't rent anything there for less than £3k a month

[jdw1234]

Genuine question (not being argumentative)...

How can they forbid the lease extension? I thought the only exception (after lease reform) was the crown estate.

[ClaphamGT3]

jdw1234 said:

Genuine question (not being argumentative)...

How can they forbid the lease extension? I thought the only exception (after lease reform) was the crown estate.

Forgive me for not paraphrasing but pointing you straight to their website;

http://www.grosvenorlondon.com/getattachment/our-c...