How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[Derek Chevalier]

Not sure what is entrepreneurial about buying a plot from someone that got planning and jacked price by ~200k

"This 'Grand Designs' house is a wonderful opportunity for entrepreneurial people to build a home of their dreams"

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

[z4RRSchris]

just like a broken clock I will be right at one point.

which will be the end of this year, at which point I will dig out all my posts saying so from the last 4 years and say "I told you so"

then I'll go sit on the beach as I'll have no job , but at least I was right

[fido]

z4RRSchris said:

which will be the end of this year

any reason why it won't be sooner? (or is that when you have booked your backpacking trips)

[z4RRSchris]

fido said:

z4RRSchris said:

which will be the end of this year

any reason why it won't be sooner? (or is that when you have booked your backpacking trips)

I need an interest rate hike, or a scheme going bust to trigger it so giving myself a bit of time.

[jacethemutt]

Pork said:

Realy? I saw them go from £120 to £180 first half of last year on a project I was doing. Couldn't believe it, but they basically said "if you don't want to pay it, plenty of others will"

I'll def pass on your comment.

I work as a QS, it really isn't all that shocking they want more money, when they need work they will take it on at cost/basic wages as everyone want money to keep flowing in.

Then they start to get busier as lots do around summer holidays (universities and schools add to workload this time of year) and suddenly get offers of other jobs at higher prices, they want that extra money made up.

It's also happens when peoplle overestimate their importance. subcontractors, after you use them on multiple jobs in a row, increase their rates as they assume they are to cheap. (If we win more than 1/4 jobs we increase our margin as to predict where the market is)

Not to drag it along too much but there are skill shortages particularly down south as £120 a day doesn't get you too far when the cost of living is high

[mondeoman]

z4RRSchris said:

fido said:

z4RRSchris said:

which will be the end of this year

any reason why it won't be sooner? (or is that when you have booked your backpacking trips)

I need an interest rate hike, or a scheme going bust to trigger it so giving myself a bit of time.

Taking it at face value, if there is so much household debt that a slight rise in interest rates would tip a lot over the edge, and the world is heading for another slump, how can there be any appetite anywhere for a rise in rates?

[Pork]

jacethemutt said:

I work as a QS, it really isn't all that shocking they want more money, when they need work they will take it on at cost/basic wages as everyone want money to keep flowing in.

Then they start to get busier as lots do around summer holidays (universities and schools add to workload this time of year) and suddenly get offers of other jobs at higher prices, they want that extra money made up.

It's also happens when peoplle overestimate their importance. subcontractors, after you use them on multiple jobs in a row, increase their rates as they assume they are to cheap. (If we win more than 1/4 jobs we increase our margin as to predict where the market is)

Not to drag it along too much but there are skill shortages particularly down south as £120 a day doesn't get you too far when the cost of living is high

The hike I saw was sensible, if a little sharp. Going up to £300 a day sounds a bit silly to me. I've passed on the comment above. It is one main bricky employing a few lads. To my eyes, the bricky rates himself a bit much and doesn't want the work, but got the job as he's a known entity and this job is more personal so needs doing right.

A real shame he's got v greedy though as he's had 2 years work out if it and is very clearly doing well, still complaining and IMO abusing a friendship. I doubt it's the first or last time it's happened.

[turbobloke]

mondeoman said:

z4RRSchris said:

fido said:

z4RRSchris said:

which will be the end of this year

any reason why it won't be sooner? (or is that when you have booked your backpacking trips)

I need an interest rate hike, or a scheme going bust to trigger it so giving myself a bit of time.

Taking it at face value, if there is so much household debt that a slight rise in interest rates would tip a lot over the edge, and the world is heading for another slump, how can there be any appetite anywhere for a rise in rates?

Does that mean we may not need another NP&E thread on how far house prices will fall

From October through to December last year The Governor was pushing 'lower for longer'.

[JagLover]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

There might well be a small correction coming but the government has proved willing to do anything to keep the bubble inflated. The only way, realistically, you would see large falls is if their freedom to manoeuvre was taken away by resurgent inflation.

Maybe I will be proved wrong but I wouldn't be surprised to see any house price falls over, say, 10% being followed by a new QE programme and funding for lending schemes (that are mainly funnelled into mortgages).

[Ari]

Short of actually buying houses for people at current market value, what levers do the government have left to pull?

People have a lot of faith in the governments ability to control an entire massive market but I wonder whether that faith is misplaced?

[Digga]

Ari said:

Short of actually buying houses for people at current market value, what levers do the government have left to pull?

People have a lot of faith in the governments ability to control an entire massive market but I wonder whether that faith is misplaced?

My concern for UK housing in general is what happens when baby-boomers start dropping or downsizing in sufficient numbers. With regard to UK premium property (London etc.) specifically, there is the additional hazard of foreign investors needing to liquidate positions simultaneously.

Everyone likes to think "it can't happen here".

[XJ40]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I read that earlier, hmmm. I read AEP quite regularly, he is repeating the RBS position here but I generally find him on the bearish side of things, I guess that keeps people reading the column inches... Anyhow, there's definately a rise in uncertainty at the moment and maybe this could be the start of the alarm bells ringing, let's see. It's getting on for 8 years since the '08 financial crisis so you do wonder how much steam is left in the economic cycle before we start seeing recessionary symptoms again..

[Digga]

This is an interesting take:

[turbobloke]

Cheap mortgage deals set to stay, they say.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/636247/Mark-Carne...

[spikeyhead]

turbobloke said:

Cheap mortgage deals set to stay, they say.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/636247/Mark-Carne...

Excellent. I thought last week that something seriously had gone wrong.

Now it seems that all is in order.

Express back to house prices on Wednesdays. All is well with the world.

[turbobloke]

spikeyhead said:

turbobloke said:

Cheap mortgage deals set to stay, they say.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/636247/Mark-Carne...

Excellent. I thought last week that something seriously had gone wrong.

Now it seems that all is in order.

Express back to house prices on Wednesdays. All is well with the world.

[turbobloke]

Article said:

Hong Kong has set a record that the city’s government is unlikely to brag about: The world’s most unaffordable housing ever measured in the 11 years that Demographia has been conducting global surveys.

Hong Kong ranked as the most expensive housing market among 87 major metropolitan regions, according to the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey, which used data from the third quarter of 2015. The median home in Hong Kong costs 19 times the median annual pretax household income, the highest multiple Demographia has measured, and up from 17 in last year’s report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-25/hong-kong-scores-a-record-in-survey-of-priciest-housing-markets

Another article said:

London and Hong Kong are the cities most at risk of a housing bubble as real estate begins to look overvalued, according to UBS Group AG.

The U.K. capital is now the second-least affordable of the 15 urban centers studied by UBS, trailing only Hong Kong.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/london-and-hong-kong-face-greatest-housing-bubble-risk-ubs-says

Come on London, poor show. Nobody remembers second place.

[Mr Whippy]

So what moves?

Salaries up, or house prices down?

Or some serious socio-demographic changes around the developed world?


My 2p, they'll print lots of money, inflation will heat up, and at that point interest rates will go up.

End result, homes more affordable with newly increased salaries, old debts devalued massively vs incomes, but interest rates at a healthy level that prevents over speculation. At least at first.

It seems the only way this cycle will 'correct'



Or the whole lot crashes... but I'm guessing they'd prefer the former, not the latter.


Dave

[Burwood]

can't see it whip-the days of high inflation are over for a very very long time.

[Esseesse]

Burwood said:

can't see it whip-the days of high inflation are over for a very very long time.

What about when we come out of the commodities bear market?