How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[Mr Whippy]

So what moves?

Salaries up, or house prices down?

Or some serious socio-demographic changes around the developed world?


My 2p, they'll print lots of money, inflation will heat up, and at that point interest rates will go up.

End result, homes more affordable with newly increased salaries, old debts devalued massively vs incomes, but interest rates at a healthy level that prevents over speculation. At least at first.

It seems the only way this cycle will 'correct'



Or the whole lot crashes... but I'm guessing they'd prefer the former, not the latter.


Dave

[Burwood]

can't see it whip-the days of high inflation are over for a very very long time.

[Esseesse]

Burwood said:

can't see it whip-the days of high inflation are over for a very very long time.

What about when we come out of the commodities bear market?

[z4RRSchris]

new build london has already crashed.

[mondeoman]

Esseesse said:

Burwood said:

can't see it whip-the days of high inflation are over for a very very long time.

What about when we come out of the commodities bear market?

and that'll be when exactly?

[Burwood]

You can't protect against individuals like this. A CDS of sorts is written by a bank against an institution which is able to be credit referenced. My thoughts are the developer will default

[z4RRSchris]

can't protect against it. you can take their 10%, any other deposit is a grey area.

you can then possibly sue them for the rest if you fancy it.

the problem comes if you don't have enough completions to pay off the bank,

[spikeyhead]

How many new build high end flats are being built but unsold?

I've just had a hunt on rightmove, newbuilds only within 1 mile of W1

The top 100 have a lowest price of 4,450k

There are another 585 listed over £1m

For BTL, you'd want a reasonable return, even 4% of £2m is £6.66k pcm, plus what I'd guess are significant service charges. I know there are a lot of wealthy folks about, but I guess we've found the limit.

I've just updated the search for over £2m and within 5 miles of W1 and got 912 properties. That seems to me to be more than they'll ever find customers for at that price.

So does anyone know how many more are in the build phase but not yet listed?

Edited by spikeyhead on Monday 25th January 19:49

[z4RRSchris]

spikeyhead said:

How many new build high end flats are being built but unsold?

plenty

[z4RRSchris]

2% is the normal PCL gross yield

[Esseesse]

mondeoman said:

Esseesse said:

Burwood said:

can't see it whip-the days of high inflation are over for a very very long time.

What about when we come out of the commodities bear market?

and that'll be when exactly?

When prices have been sufficiently low for sufficiently long to put people out of business. Hard to say when but miners/producers etc have been having a tough time for a while now, pretty sure it won't be a very very long time as suggested above.

[Burwood]

z4RRSchris said:

can't protect against it. you can take their 10%, any other deposit is a grey area.

you can then possibly sue them for the rest if you fancy it.

the problem comes if you don't have enough completions to pay off the bank,

Exactly this happened in canary wharf, most buyers paid up after being sued for the threat of.

[Mr Whippy]

Burwood said:

can't see it whip-the days of high inflation are over for a very very long time.

Print enough money and you'll get inflation eventually.

They just haven't printed enough yet. Give it time.

[Digga]

z4RRSchris said:

spikeyhead said:

How many new build high end flats are being built but unsold?

plenty

I see a solution to the migrant housing crisis. (I'm joking, but give it less than six months before comedy Corbyn has crayoned it onto his to do list.)

[loafer123]

Burwood said:

z4RRSchris said:

can't protect against it. you can take their 10%, any other deposit is a grey area.

you can then possibly sue them for the rest if you fancy it.

the problem comes if you don't have enough completions to pay off the bank,

Exactly this happened in canary wharf, most buyers paid up after being sued for the threat of.

Doesn't work with Chinese buyers....

[jonah35]

I don't know about central London but elsewhere cheaply properties are flying off the shelves at the moment pre April but perhaps after that it will stall

I think classic cars are going to tumble shortly but we will see

[z4RRSchris]

Berkeley are fking aggressive with it, good lucking getting anything back off them.

you can sue, but if it's an overseas buyer with no uk assets, or an SPV whatcha going to do ??

that said its only happened twice to me, both times people dropped 6 figure sums

[loafer123]

If Battersea are theoretically selling off £1800 psf, what do you think those units are actually worth?

[z4RRSchris]

loafer123 said:

If Battersea are theoretically selling off £1800 psf, what do you think those units are actually worth?

£750psf? you can buy resales at that

[loafer123]

z4RRSchris said:

loafer123 said:

If Battersea are theoretically selling off £1800 psf, what do you think those units are actually worth?

£750psf? you can buy resales at that

Interesting. I agree on the fair value, but had no idea that availability was already there at that price. I wonder what the overshoot will be on that basis?