How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[Mr Whippy]

turbobloke said:

Mr Whippy said:

crankedup said:

I am with the side that is with the City being a safe haven for property investment.

Is there such a thing as a safe haven in property?

Not in absolute terms but surely in relative terms quite a lot of foreign money thinks London prime is it.

Calling it a 'safe haven' because billionaires park their money there is questionable.

It's a pyramid scheme plain and simple.

Some rich people hop in, pump prices, everyone else and their mum buys into the growth like it's a 'sure thing'

The last ones in get shafted. Probably the greedy sheep.

It makes you wonder how many multi-billionaire types have unloaded a lot of their high-end property in this last 12 months.

Dave

[turbobloke]

Mr Whippy said:

turbobloke said:

Mr Whippy said:

crankedup said:

I am with the side that is with the City being a safe haven for property investment.

Is there such a thing as a safe haven in property?

Not in absolute terms but surely in relative terms quite a lot of foreign money thinks London prime is it.

Calling it a 'safe haven' because billionaires park their money there is questionable.

I called it a relatively safe haven in the present tense

[AstonZagato]

But if you are a Russian billionaire, you probably don't care anyway. Your risk is leaving the money in Russia, in which case Putin might decide to take it all. Put £100m into UK property and, even if it drops to £50m, you have enough money to live on for the rest of your life, whatever the vagaries of Russian politics.

Same for the middle eastern oil billions. If it all goes Assad on them, then a private plane to London and you are safe and still rich enough.

[turbobloke]

AstonZagato said:

But if you are a Russian billionaire, you probably don't care anyway. Your risk is leaving the money in Russia, in which case Putin might decide to take it all. Put £100m into UK property and, even if it drops to £50m, you have enough money to live on for the rest of your life, whatever the vagaries of Russian politics.

OK, a relatively safe haven for real money in the present and future tenses

[loafer123]

How I explain the current market to sceptical people who don't believe it is falling is to say;

1 pour large whisky
2 sit at your computer
3 visit rightmove
4 enter Nine Elms as the location
5 scroll through pages and pages of ludicrously priced identical apartments
6 calculate rental yield on said apartments
7 drink whisky

[Justayellowbadge]

loafer123 said:

How I explain the current market to sceptical people who don't believe it is falling is to say;

1 pour large whisky
2 sit at your computer
3 visit rightmove
4 enter Nine Elms as the location
5 scroll through pages and pages of ludicrously priced identical apartments
6 calculate rental yield on said apartments
7 drink whisky

The question that occurs to me is who exactly is the target for a 15m 12 bed flat in Battersea?

And would such a person, if they ever find one, conceivably only require a single parking space?

15m. 12 beds. 1 sodding parking space.

[okgo]

Justayellowbadge said:

The question that occurs to me is who exactly is the target for a 15m 12 bed flat in Battersea?

And would such a person, if they ever find one, conceivably only require a single parking space?

15m. 12 beds. 1 sodding parking space.

Uber chopper

[SilverSixer]

Justayellowbadge said:

loafer123 said:

How I explain the current market to sceptical people who don't believe it is falling is to say;

1 pour large whisky
2 sit at your computer
3 visit rightmove
4 enter Nine Elms as the location
5 scroll through pages and pages of ludicrously priced identical apartments
6 calculate rental yield on said apartments
7 drink whisky

The question that occurs to me is who exactly is the target for a 15m 12 bed flat in Battersea?

And would such a person, if they ever find one, conceivably only require a single parking space?

15m. 12 beds. 1 sodding parking space.

Saudi Prince has many wives needing many bedrooms. None drive because women.

[Justayellowbadge]

okgo said:

Justayellowbadge said:

The question that occurs to me is who exactly is the target for a 15m 12 bed flat in Battersea?

And would such a person, if they ever find one, conceivably only require a single parking space?

15m. 12 beds. 1 sodding parking space.

Uber chopper

Hang on.

Did you just call me a mammoth cock?

[okgo]

Justayellowbadge said:

Hang on.

Did you just call me a mammoth cock?

[turbobloke]

crankedup said:

turbobloke said:

Mr Whippy said:

crankedup said:

I am with the side that is with the City being a safe haven for property investment.

Is there such a thing as a safe haven in property?

Not in absolute terms but surely in relative terms quite a lot of foreign money thinks London prime is it.

My understanding that this was the case, that was until z4rrschris put me straight! Then I caught up with my own reading and the foreign property money has indeed dried up leaving property developers holding plenty of unsold fancy apartments.

As an expert on the spot z4rrschris is very likely to be right but the past is writ, new developments unsold merely show where the line is drawn in space and time - those already 'in' prime London will cope as AstonZagato pointed out.

[Mr Whippy]

AstonZagato said:

But if you are a Russian billionaire, you probably don't care anyway. Your risk is leaving the money in Russia, in which case Putin might decide to take it all. Put £100m into UK property and, even if it drops to £50m, you have enough money to live on for the rest of your life, whatever the vagaries of Russian politics.

Same for the middle eastern oil billions. If it all goes Assad on them, then a private plane to London and you are safe and still rich enough.

And the UK government might not decide to take it all either?

Pay huge taxes under Corbyn if you're a foreign owner, or forfeit the property!?

If it's not occupied, even higher taxes?

Before you know it then they won't be good assets to own because they'll be losing money and costing you to keep them.

[turbobloke]

Mr Whippy said:

AstonZagato said:

But if you are a Russian billionaire, you probably don't care anyway. Your risk is leaving the money in Russia, in which case Putin might decide to take it all. Put £100m into UK property and, even if it drops to £50m, you have enough money to live on for the rest of your life, whatever the vagaries of Russian politics.

Same for the middle eastern oil billions. If it all goes Assad on them, then a private plane to London and you are safe and still rich enough.

And the UK government might not decide to take it all either?

Pay huge taxes under Corbyn if you're a foreign owner, or forfeit the property!?

If it's not occupied, even higher taxes?

Before you know it then they won't be good assets to own because they'll be losing money and costing you to keep them.

Thank goodness the closest Corbyn will get to power is when he turns the lights on.

[alfaman]

Justayellowbadge said:

The question that occurs to me is who exactly is the target for a 15m 12 bed flat in Battersea?

And would such a person, if they ever find one, conceivably only require a single parking space?

15m. 12 beds. 1 sodding parking space.

someone who wants to rent out rooms on an hourly basis to very high end clients ?

[AstonZagato]

Mr Whippy said:

And the UK government might not decide to take it all either?
Pay huge taxes under Corbyn if you're a foreign owner, or forfeit the property!?
If it's not occupied, even higher taxes?
Before you know it then they won't be good assets to own because they'll be losing money and costing you to keep them.

I don't think the UK govt would ever appropriate property, even under Corbyn. The middle class would revolt.

However, some form of non-dom property tax could well get political traction (much less controversial than the "mansion tax"). If they are non-doms, they can't vote. Occupation would be hard to police - much easier to do it by property, making the property tax increasingly expensive on second, third, fourth properties.

But this type of taxation could crater the very top end.

[z4RRSchris]

Justayellowbadge said:

The question that occurs to me is who exactly is the target for a 15m 12 bed flat in Battersea?

And would such a person, if they ever find one, conceivably only require a single parking space?

15m. 12 beds. 1 sodding parking space.

that's not an actual flat, it's a broker trying to sell the top two flats as one and take a cut

[BoRED S2upid]

loafer123 said:

How I explain the current market to sceptical people who don't believe it is falling is to say;

1 pour large whisky
2 sit at your computer
3 visit rightmove
4 enter Nine Elms as the location
5 scroll through pages and pages of ludicrously priced identical apartments
6 calculate rental yield on said apartments
7 drink whisky

Great game. I also like reading the desperate descriptions as to why you should spend upwards of £2mill on a terraced house. And the pictures of IKEA furniture 😄

[crankedup]

z4RRSchris said:

crankedup said:

City prices crashed? I see you are professionally part of the property market so I guess you should know. Can you advise when the market crashed please, you say long ago!
I ask because it isn't chiming with what I was hearing just a few weeks ago. You are sure it's the city market that has collasped!, I f so then a lot of speculators and developers are going to get their fingers burnt.
The developments of high rise along the Thames is rampant. Some people have sunk multi millions or billions into these projects which are under construction and late stage planing.
I agree that turnover of property has dropped significantly and the lower end property of upto two million may be struggling due to the stamp duties changes 2014 but I don't see the mega wealhy affected by this and I am with the side that is with the City being a safe haven for property investment. Perhaps we have a pause for breath. I am genuinely interested in your take on the top end of the city market.

Edited by crankedup on Wednesday 10th February 19:38

the prime I think has fallen by 10/15% in the last few months.
the sub prime I think you can safely say has gone 20%+

mega wealthy have been hit. oil prices, currency, capital controls, stamp, IHT, ATED,

the only people buying are those who want to live in it, not investors,

Edited by z4RRSchris on Thursday 11th February 13:00

Thanks , I did a little reading up on this after you advised me of current situation. Maybe I should have read up before posting!
Anyhow, thankfully I am not directly affected by the downturn, yet!

[poocherama]

Would I be rushing to buy in PCL now? Probably not. Infact everything I've been looking at over the last 12 months or so has either continued to sit on the market or been quietly withdrawn. The London market in particular is now so fragmented that you could conceivably have prices in one sector tanking whilst another merrily marches on upwards. I mean there's a huge difference between a £5m + new build flat on the river and a period terraced house or lateral flat in a mansion block. These just aren't being made anymore.

Additionally, having now lived in London for 20 years I look back at places I used to live and visit and cannot believe the transformation that has taken place. It is quite literally a different city. Inevitably there will be bumps in the road but I'm quietly optimistic over the medium to long term.

[crankedup]

turbobloke said:

crankedup said:

turbobloke said:

Mr Whippy said:

crankedup said:

I am with the side that is with the City being a safe haven for property investment.

Is there such a thing as a safe haven in property?

Not in absolute terms but surely in relative terms quite a lot of foreign money thinks London prime is it.

My understanding that this was the case, that was until z4rrschris put me straight! Then I caught up with my own reading and the foreign property money has indeed dried up leaving property developers holding plenty of unsold fancy apartments.

As an expert on the spot z4rrschris is very likely to be right but the past is writ, new developments unsold merely show where the line is drawn in space and time - those already 'in' prime London will cope as AstonZagato pointed out.

Absolutely, the problem will be in the laps of the developers and their money sources, still they will be well versed in dealing with the up's/downs of the property market.